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Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat
7/7 checkable references clean · checked 2026-07-26
Every reference with a DOI in the deposited reference list resolved to a known work in Crossref or DataCite at the dated check, and none carried a retraction, withdrawal, or removal notice.
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The 7 checked references that resolve
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Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation
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Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming
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Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030
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The effect of drought and heat stress on reproductive processes in cereals
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The 16 references without a DOI — listed, not checked
no DOI — not checkedR. Naylor, W. Falcon, Boston Rev.33, 13 (2008).
no DOI — not checkedWe approximated the main growing season to be summer in the extratropics. Hence north of the equator we used the three-month average temperature June through August (and for south of the equator we used December through February) periods that broadly capture growing season conditions for many crops.
no DOI — not checkedIPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Synthesis published online 17 November 2007 www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm.
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no DOI — not checkedA. De Bonoet al. “Environmental alert bulletin: Impacts of summer 2003 heat wave in Europe” (United Nations Environmental Programme Nairobi Kenya 2004).
no DOI — not checkedInternational Financial Statistics Database “United States Gulf ports wheat prices ” published online July 2008 www.imfstatistics.org.
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no DOI — not checkedWorld Bank Africa Development Indicators 2007 (World Bank Washington DC 2007).
no DOI — not checkedS. Kandji L. Verchot J. Mackensen Climate Change and Variability in the Sahel Region: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in the Agricultural Sector (United Nations Environmental Programme and World Agroforestry Center Nairobi Kenya 2006).
no DOI — not checkedT. Jayne in The Transformation of Agri-Food Systems: Globalization Supply Chains and Smallholder Farmers E. B. McCullough et al. Eds. (Earthscan London 2008).
no DOI — not checkedTo calculate the projected climate for 2090 we first added the observed temperature departures (in blue) to the change in the summer temperature taken to be the mean summer temperature for 2080–2100 minus that for 1980–2000 simulated by each of the 23 climate models from the IPCC AR4 forced by the “middle of the road” emission scenario A1B. We then combined the 23 × 107 projections to create the probability distribution function for summer temperature in 2090 (see SOM).
no DOI — not checkedThe probability distribution of future summer temperature is calculated as described in ( 21 ). Here summer is defined north of the equator as the average temperature from June through August and south of the equator as December through February. In the immediate vicinity of the equator values in Fig. 3 are qualitatively insensitive to the choice of months that define the season.
no DOI — not checkedThis work was made possible by grants from the NSF (grant SES 0433679) and the Tamaki Foundation. We thank M. Baker M. Burke W. Falcon D. Kennedy S.-H. Kim D. Lobell R. Nicholas K. Niemer Johnson K. Rennert and D. Vimont for comments and/or assistance on the draft.
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