Reference health
The Trouble With Overconfidence
12 of 113 checkable references need attention · checked 2026-08-03
At the dated check, the references listed below either did not resolve in Crossref or DataCite, or carried a retraction notice. Each one is shown with the registry record that put it there.
12 without a DOI — not checked. A reference deposited without a DOI is never matched by title or guessed at; it stays outside the checked set, and this line discloses that.
References needing attention
does not resolve to a known work10.1037//0096-3445.108.4.441
does not resolve to a known work10.1001/jama.259.16.2428
does not resolve to a known work10.1037//0278-7393.25.4.1038
does not resolve to a known work10.1037//0033-295x.107.2.384
does not resolve to a known work10.1037//0096-3445.131.2.147
does not resolve to a known work10.1037//0022-3514.82.2.180-188
does not resolve to a known work10.1037//0022-3514.77.2.221
does not resolve to a known work10.1037//0022-3514.77.6.1121
does not resolve to a known work10.1037//0003-066x.41.9.954
does not resolve to a known work10.1037//0022-3514.54.5.890
does not resolve to a known work10.1007/bf01426214
does not resolve to a known work10.1037//0021-9010.87.3.506
The 101 checked references that resolve
resolves10.1037/0022-3514.35.5.303
Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction.
resolves10.1037/0022-3514.49.6.1621
Global self-evaluation as determined by the desirability and controllability of trait adjectives.
resolves10.1521/soco.1989.7.3.275
On Being Better but not Smarter than Others: The Muhammad Ali Effect
resolves10.1037/a0012638
The role of short-term memory capacity and task experience for overconfidence in judgment under uncertainty.
resolves10.1521/jscp.1996.15.1.9
Sufficient Grounds for Optimism?: The Relationship Between Perceived Controllability and Optimistic Bias
resolves10.1207/s15327957pspr0501_5
Do Moderators of the Optimistic Bias Affect Personal or Target Risk Estimates? A Review of the Literature
resolves10.1111/j.0956-7976.2004.00715.x
Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice
resolves10.1037/0278-7393.11.1-4.719
Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events.
resolves10.1111/j.1467-839x.2004.00132.x
Optimism across cultures: In response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak
resolves10.1016/s0191-8869(02)00028-4
Stability and variability in the realism of confidence judgments over time, content domain, and gender
resolves10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(199709)10:3<189::aid-bdm258>3.0.co;2-4
Brunswikian and Thurstonian Origins of Bias in Probability Assessment: On the Interpretation of Stochastic Components of Judgment
resolves10.1207/s15516709cog2605_2
PROBabilities from EXemplars (PROBEX): a “lazy” algorithm for probabilistic inference from generic knowledge
resolves10.1037/0033-295x.114.3.678
The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals.
resolves10.1016/0001-6918(88)90007-8
On the ability of monitoring non-veridical perceptions and uncertain knowledge: Some calibration studies
resolves10.2139/ssrn.303387
Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: Evidence from Experimental Asset Markets
resolves10.1080/0887044022000004920
Perceived Control and the Optimistic Bias: A Meta-Analytic Review
resolves10.1016/0022-1031(92)90036-j
Motivated person perception: Constructing justifications for desired beliefs
resolves10.1037/0033-295x.110.3.585
Return of the ego--Self-referent information as a filter for social prediction: Comment on Karniol (2003).
resolves10.2139/ssrn.946245
On the Genesis of Inflated (and Deflated) Judgments of Responsibility: Egocentrism Revisited
resolves10.1037/0033-295x.111.1.94
Reconceptualizing Individual Differences in Self-Enhancement Bias: An Interpersonal Approach.
resolves10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.10.002
Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you’re better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not)
resolves10.1207/s15327957pspr0202_3
Cognitive Optimism: Self-Deception or Memory-Based Processing Heuristics?
resolves10.1016/j.obhdp.2004.04.001
Myopic prediction, self-destructive secrecy, and the unexpected benefits of revealing final deadlines in negotiation
resolves10.1177/0146167204271569
Myopic Biases in Strategic Social Prediction: Why Deadlines Put Everyone Under More Pressure Than Everyone Else
resolves10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.09.005
Not so above average after all: When people believe they are worse than average and its implications for theories of bias in social comparison
resolves10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.09.002
Overconfidence and underconfidence: When and why people underestimate (and overestimate) the competition
resolves10.1006/obhd.1999.2835
Positive Illusions and Forecasting Errors in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions
resolves10.1037/0022-3514.92.6.972
Error and bias in comparative judgment: On being both better and worse than we think we are.
resolves10.1006/jesp.1998.1364
Hypothesis-Consistent Testing and Semantic Priming in the Anchoring Paradigm: A Selective Accessibility Model
resolves10.2307/256060
THE EFFECTS OF FRAMING AND NEGOTIATOR OVERCONFIDENCE ON BARGAINING BEHAVIORS AND OUTCOMES.
resolves10.1111/0022-1082.00078
Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average
resolves10.1037/0022-3514.84.4.890
The over-claiming technique: Measuring self-enhancement independent of ability.
resolves10.1037//0022-3514.56.5.823
Consensus in personality judgments: Moderating effects of targetater acquaintanceship and behavior observability.
resolves10.1016/0022-1031(77)90049-x
The “false consensus effect”: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes
resolves10.1111/j.2044-8295.1998.tb02710.x
Perceptions of risk in motorcyclists: Unrealistic optimism, relative realism and predictions of behaviour
resolves10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(200004/06)13:2<273::aid-bdm338>3.0.co;2-g
Rejoinder: the perils of Viscusi's analyses of smoking risk perceptions
resolves10.1177/105960119001500102
A Comparison of Techniques for Judgmental Forecasting by Groups with Common Information
resolves10.1006/obhd.1996.0011
Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure
resolves10.1016/s0160-2896(97)90047-7
Self-confidence and performance on tests of cognitive abilities
resolves10.1006/obhd.1994.1069
Overconfidence in Initial Self-Efficacy Judgments: Effects on Decision Processes and Performance
resolves10.1207/s15427579jpfm0603_2
The Perception of Control and the Level of Overconfidence: Evidence from Analyst Earnings Estimates and Price Targets
resolves10.1037/0022-3514.73.3.437
Explaining the enigmatic anchoring effect: Mechanisms of selective accessibility.
resolves10.1016/0001-6918(81)90005-6
Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?
resolves10.1002/acp.1085
When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: on the credibility of credible intervals
resolves10.1037//0033-2909.123.2.143
Illusions of control, underestimations, and accuracy: A control heuristic explanation.
resolves10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(200004/06)13:2<267::AID-BDM337>3.0.CO;2-8
Comment: the perils of qualitative smoking risk measures
resolves10.1037/0022-3514.62.5.739
Naked statistical evidence of liability: Is subjective probability enough?
resolves10.1037/0022-3514.85.3.389
The Influence of Egocentrism and Focalism on People's Optimism in Competitions: When What Affects Us Equally Affects Me More.
resolves10.1037/0278-7393.30.6.1167
Subjective Probability Intervals: How to Reduce Overconfidence by Interval Evaluation.
resolves10.2307/2393221
Why Do Employers Only Reward Extreme Performance? Examining the Relationships Among Performance, Pay, and Turnover
The 12 references without a DOI — listed, not checked
no DOI — not checkedref4
no DOI — not checkedref5
no DOI — not checkedOverconfidence
no DOI — not checkedref19
no DOI — not checkedThe big-five trait taxonomy: History, measurement, and theoretical perspectives
no DOI — not checkedref55
no DOI — not checkedWhen it's rational for the majority to believe that they are better than average
no DOI — not checkedFalse consensus and false uniqueness: Biases in perceptions of similarity
no DOI — not checkedref81
no DOI — not checkedref82
no DOI — not checkedIllusion of control: A meta-analytic review
no DOI — not checkedref114
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