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Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1143308
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31/31 checkable references clean · checked 2026-08-27

Every reference with a DOI in the deposited reference list resolved to a known work in Crossref or DataCite at the dated check, and none carried a retraction, withdrawal, or removal notice.

7 without a DOI — not checked. A reference deposited without a DOI is never matched by title or guessed at; it stays outside the checked set, and this line discloses that.

The 31 checked references that resolve
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Why Have Business Cycle Fluctuations Become Less Volatile?
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The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility
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Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?
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The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization
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Monetary Policy and the Evolution of US economy
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The Structural Dynamics of Output Growth and Inflation: Some International Evidence
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Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory*
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Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics
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Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII US
resolves10.1257/aer.97.3.607
Generalizing the Taylor Principle
resolves10.24149/wp0807
Regulation and the Neo-Wicksellian Approach to Monetary Policy
resolves10.3386/w13397
Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset
resolves10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00117.x
The Structural Dynamics of U.S. Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes?
resolves10.3386/w11777
What Caused the Decline in U.S. Business Cycle Volatility?
resolves10.3386/w12308
Financial Innovations and Macroeconomic Volatility
resolves10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.08.019
Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey
resolves10.1016/s0165-1889(02)00153-7
Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models
resolves10.1257/000282804322970760
Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy
resolves10.3386/w12605
Sticky Information in General Equilibrium
resolves10.1257/aer.90.5.1464
Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980's?
resolves10.1353/mcb.2004.0013
Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches
resolves10.7208/chicago/9780226044736.003.0006
Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy
resolves10.1016/j.jedc.2005.06.004
The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations
resolves10.1111/j.1467-937x.2005.00353.x
Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy
resolves10.1016/j.red.2005.01.001
Learning and monetary policy shifts
resolves10.1257/000282806776157678
Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?
resolves10.3386/w4633
Monetary Policy with Flexible Exchange Rates and Forward Interest Rates as Indicators
resolves10.1086/ma.17.3585284
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?
resolves10.1162/1542476054729446
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics
resolves10.1257/jep.13.4.125
Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation
resolves10.2139/ssrn.813248
Has Output Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy
The 7 references without a DOI — listed, not checked
no DOI — not checkedThe great stability in the UK: Good policy or good luck?", forthcoming
no DOI — not checkedref3
no DOI — not checkedref12
no DOI — not checkedref13
no DOI — not checkedref19
no DOI — not checkedSurvey Measures of Expected Inflation: Revisiting the Issue of the Predictive Content and Rationality
no DOI — not checkedref33
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