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The Theoretical Value of Forecasting in Political Science

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2183409
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1 of 21 checkable references need attention · checked 2026-08-03

At the dated check, the references listed below either did not resolve in Crossref or DataCite, or carried a retraction notice. Each one is shown with the registry record that put it there.

20 without a DOI — not checked. A reference deposited without a DOI is never matched by title or guessed at; it stays outside the checked set, and this line discloses that.

References needing attention

does not resolve to a known work10.1017/s0043887100019171
The 20 checked references that resolve
resolves10.1287/inte.14.6.52
Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research
resolves10.1017/s0007123400000235
A Cross-Validation of Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman's International Interaction Game
resolves10.1017/s1537592704040526
Expert Judgment versus Statistical Models: Explanation versus Prediction
resolves10.1177/1532673X01029005002
When Have Presidential Campaigns Decided Election Outcomes?
resolves10.5860/choice.38-0587
The American campaign: U.S. presidential campaigns and the national vote
resolves10.1002/9780470996430.ch23
Explaining Forecast Failure in Macroeconomics
resolves10.1057/palgrave.eps.2210122
testing theories with qualitative and quantitative predictions
resolves10.1177/0010414009331724
Context and Causal Mechanisms in Political Analysis
resolves10.1017/cbo9780511581427.002
The methodology of positive economics (1953)
resolves10.1017/s0007123400006682
Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?
resolves10.4135/9781452243825
Do Campaigns Matter?
resolves10.1515/9781400821211
Designing Social Inquiry
resolves10.1080/00401706.1981.10487687
Parsimony and Its Importance in Time Series Forecasting
resolves10.1111/j.1467-856x.2005.00178.x
Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice
resolves10.1515/9781400841080
Politics in Time
resolves10.1017/s0007123400007560
The Future as Arbiter of Theoretical Controversies: Predictions, Explanations and the End of the Cold War
resolves10.1086/287427
Prediction and Hindsight as Confirmatory Evidence
resolves10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.001.0001
Making Social Sciences More Scientific
resolves10.1177/0022343309356491
The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts
resolves10.1017/CBO9780511612183
Social Theory of International Politics
The 20 references without a DOI — listed, not checked
no DOI — not checkedref1
no DOI — not checkedref3
no DOI — not checkedref5
no DOI — not checkedref6
no DOI — not checkedThe Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections
no DOI — not checkedThe Forecasting Potential of International Relations Theories
no DOI — not checkedref14
no DOI — not checkedFactions and Policon: New Ways to Analyze Politics
no DOI — not checkedref19
no DOI — not checkedref20
no DOI — not checkedThe Logic of Functional Analysis
no DOI — not checkedValidating International Relations Forecasts to Develop Theory
no DOI — not checkedref24
no DOI — not checkedref29
no DOI — not checkedref32
no DOI — not checkedref33
no DOI — not checkedThe River and the Billiard Ball: History, Innovation, and the Future
no DOI — not checkedref35
no DOI — not checkedref38
no DOI — not checkedref41
What this badge says. CiteStamped means the CHECKABLE references of this work were clean at the dated check: each resolved to a known work in a public registry, and none carried a retraction notice at that time. It says nothing about the quality, findings, or importance of the work itself, and nothing about references deposited without a DOI.

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