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Forecasting the 2013 Bundestag Election Using Data from Various Polls

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2313845
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18/18 checkable references clean · checked 2026-08-22

Every reference with a DOI in the deposited reference list resolved to a known work in Crossref or DataCite at the dated check, and none carried a retraction, withdrawal, or removal notice.

6 without a DOI — not checked. A reference deposited without a DOI is never matched by title or guessed at; it stays outside the checked set, and this line discloses that.

The 18 checked references that resolve
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The Statistical Analysis of Compositional Data
resolves10.1016/s0169-2070(98)00059-4
Forecasting presidential elections using history and polls
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From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election
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Quick Simultaneous Confidence Intervals for Multinomial Proportions
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Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?
resolves10.1007/s11615-005-0308-8
Prognosemodell auf dem Prüfstand: Die Bundestagswahl 2005
resolves10.1080/10361140500302472
Pooling the polls over an election campaign
resolves10.1017/s1049096513000796
Editor's Introduction for Forecasting the 2013 German Elections
resolves10.1017/s1049096513000814
A Political-Economy Forecast for the 2013 German Elections: Who to Rule with Angela Merkel?
resolves10.2307/3315214
Bootstrap and other methods to measure errors in survey estimates
resolves10.1086/269405
An Analysis of the Accuracy of "Trial Heat" Polls During the 1992 Presidential Election
resolves10.1111/j.1467-856X.2005.00178.x
Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice
resolves10.1093/pan/mpq002
Bayesian Combination of State Polls and Election Forecasts
resolves10.1007/978-3-531-91666-8_20
“Zittrige Wählerhand” oder invalides Messinstrument? Zur Plausibilität von Wahlprojektionen am Beispiel der Bundestagswahl 2005
resolves10.1007/s11615-005-0307-9
Die Prognosegüte von Wahlbörsen und Meinungsumfragen zur Bundestagswahl 2005
resolves10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.001
Forecasting runoff elections using candidate evaluations from first round exit polls
resolves10.1093/poq/nfq004
Sensitive Topics and Reluctant Respondents: Demonstrating a Link between Nonresponse Bias and Measurement Error
resolves10.1111/1468-2508.00159
The Timeline of Presidential Election Campaigns
The 6 references without a DOI — listed, not checked
no DOI — not checkedref3
no DOI — not checkedref7
no DOI — not checkedref12
no DOI — not checkedDie "Zauberformel
no DOI — not checkedChancellor Model Picks Merkel in 2013 German Election
no DOI — not checkedMit Rot-Gr�n ins Schwarze getroffen: Prognosemodell besteht Feuertaufe
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