Reference health

Conflict Forecasting and Its Limits

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2920514
CiteStamped reference-health badge
29/29 checkable references clean · checked 2026-08-29

Every reference with a DOI in the deposited reference list resolved to a known work in Crossref or DataCite at the dated check, and none carried a retraction, withdrawal, or removal notice.

8 without a DOI — not checked. A reference deposited without a DOI is never matched by title or guessed at; it stays outside the checked set, and this line discloses that.

The 29 checked references that resolve
resolves10.1126/science.1157679
The Promise of Prediction Markets
resolves10.2307/2586378
Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture
resolves10.3886/icpsr01290.v1
Behavioral Origins of War
resolves10.1111/ajps.12045
Group Segregation and Urban Violence
resolves10.1177/0738894210388125
Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict
resolves10.1073/pnas.082081099
Endogenizing geopolitical boundaries with agent-based modeling
resolves10.1126/science.aal4483
Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations?
resolves10.1177/0022343313507302
Early warning signals for war in the news
resolves10.2139/ssrn.2409005
The Triggers of War: Disentangling the Spark from the Powder Keg
resolves10.1177/0022343316687615
Market anticipations of conflict onsets
resolves10.1162/002081899550995
War Is in the Error Term
resolves10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x
A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
resolves10.1016/s0169-2070(02)00022-5
Forecasting games: can game theory win?
resolves10.1287/inte.1060.0262
The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts
resolves10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054002
Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways
resolves10.1080/08913811.2016.1237704
Not a New Gold Standard: Even Big Data Cannot Predict the Future
resolves10.1017/psrm.2018.23
Lost in Space: Geolocation in Event Data
resolves10.1093/pan/mps002
Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging
resolves10.1093/pan/mpv024
Comparing Random Forest with Logistic Regression for Predicting Class-Imbalanced Civil War Onset Data
resolves10.1080/14623528.2012.759398
Will it happen again? On the possibility of forecasting the risk of genocide
resolves10.1177/0022002706290430
War and the World Economy
resolves10.1214/10-sts330
To Explain or to Predict?
resolves10.1126/science.1177170
Limits of Predictability in Human Mobility
resolves10.2139/ssrn.2528102
Communication Power Struggles on Social Media: A Case Study of the 2011-12 Russian Protests
resolves10.2139/ssrn.2056306
Forecasting Onsets of Mass Killing
resolves10.1371/journal.pone.0154148
The Role of Datasets on Scientific Influence within Conflict Research
resolves10.1093/jogss/ogv002
Can We Predict Politics? Toward What End?: Table 1.
resolves10.1177/0022343309356491
The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts
resolves10.1177/0022002714530431
On the Accuracy of Media-based Conflict Event Data
The 8 references without a DOI — listed, not checked
no DOI — not checkedref6
no DOI — not checkedGame Theory, Simulated Interaction, and Unaided Judgement for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts: Further Evidence
no DOI — not checkedref19
no DOI — not checkedref23
no DOI — not checkedref27
no DOI — not checkedThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
no DOI — not checkedref31
no DOI — not checkedref32
What this badge says. CiteStamped means the CHECKABLE references of this work were clean at the dated check: each resolved to a known work in a public registry, and none carried a retraction notice at that time. It says nothing about the quality, findings, or importance of the work itself, and nothing about references deposited without a DOI.

checked 2026-08-29 — re-checked daily as this page is visited; titles and statuses come from Crossref and DataCite and are not part of the signed record

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