Reference health
Separating Accuracy from Forecast Certainty: A Modified Miscalibration Measure
25/25 checkable references clean · checked 2026-08-03
Every reference with a DOI in the deposited reference list resolved to a known work in Crossref or DataCite at the dated check, and none carried a retraction, withdrawal, or removal notice.
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The 25 checked references that resolve
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A Comparison of Two Probability Encoding Methods: Fixed Probability vs. Fixed Variable Values
resolves10.1016/j.frl.2013.11.002
Overconfidence, risk perception and the risk-taking behavior of finance professionals
resolves10.1002/bdm.1773
True Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: Evidence Based on a New Measure of Miscalibration
resolves10.1037/0033-295x.114.3.678
The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals.
resolves10.1016/j.jebo.2016.04.019
Do we measure overconfidence? A closer look at the interval production task
resolves10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.007
Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25years
resolves10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.02.007
Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?
resolves10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.07.009
Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors
resolves10.1175/1520-0477(1974)055<1449:pfason>2.0.co;2
Probability Forecasts: a Survey of National Weather Service Forecasters
resolves10.1016/j.joep.2013.06.006
Informational overconfidence in return prediction – More properties
resolves10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01337.x
Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts
resolves10.1002/acp.1085
When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: on the credibility of credible intervals
resolves10.1037/0278-7393.30.6.1167
Subjective Probability Intervals: How to Reduce Overconfidence by Interval Evaluation.
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