Reference health
Overconfidence in Probability Distributions: People Know They Don’t Know but They Don’t Know What to Do About It
39/39 checkable references clean · checked 2026-08-03
Every reference with a DOI in the deposited reference list resolved to a known work in Crossref or DataCite at the dated check, and none carried a retraction, withdrawal, or removal notice.
11 without a DOI — not checked. A reference deposited without a DOI is never matched by title or guessed at; it stays outside the checked set, and this line discloses that.
The 39 checked references that resolve
resolves10.1016/0749-5978(91)90048-X
Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis
resolves10.1006/cogp.1998.0706
Subjective Probability of Disjunctive Hypotheses: Local-Weight Models for Decomposition of Evidential Support
resolves10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2
VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY
resolves10.1016/j.obhdp.2018.10.006
Better calibration when predicting from experience (rather than description)
resolves10.1177/0146167205284007
The Mixed Blessings of Self-Knowledge in Behavioral Prediction: Enhanced Discrimination but Exacerbated Bias
resolves10.1037/0022-3514.59.6.1128
The role of construal processes in overconfident predictions about the self and others.
resolves10.1287/mnsc.1120.1696
Unpacking the Future: A Nudge Toward Wider Subjective Confidence Intervals
resolves10.1287/mnsc.39.1.17
Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking
resolves10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199712)10:4<293::AID-BDM256>3.0.CO;2-P
The enhancement effect in probability judgment
resolves10.1016/j.obhdp.2015.09.003
Wide of the mark: Evidence on the underlying causes of overprecision in judgment
resolves10.1037/0033-295X.90.4.339
The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning.
resolves10.1287/mnsc.2015.2344
Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty
resolves10.1002/acp.1085
When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: on the credibility of credible intervals
resolves10.1037/0096-3445.124.4.424
Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off.
resolves10.1007/s10940-016-9324-7
More Places than Crimes: Implications for Evaluating the Law of Crime Concentration at Place
resolves10.1162/rest.2003.85.1.226
The Small-Sample Bias of the Gini Coefficient: Results and Implications for Empirical Research
The 11 references without a DOI — listed, not checked
no DOI — not checkedChampions of the Boston Marathon: Men's Open Division
no DOI — not checkedref10
no DOI — not checkedDistinguishing two dimensions of uncertainty
no DOI — not checkedFormat dependence in subjective probability calibration
no DOI — not checkedOverprecision is a property of thinking systems
no DOI — not checkedManaging overconfidence
no DOI — not checkedref43
no DOI — not checkedref44
no DOI — not checkedThe size structure of the largest industrial firms, 1909-1958
no DOI — not checkedref49
no DOI — not checkedMethods of measuring the concentration of wealth
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