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Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3520777
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4 of 63 checkable references need attention · checked 2026-08-02

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The 9 references without a DOI — listed, not checked
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no DOI — not checkedExpected Shortfall is Jointly Elicitable with Value at Risk -Implications for Backtesting
no DOI — not checkedQuantile-based Inflation Risk Models
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no DOI — not checkedref58
no DOI — not checkedin-sample and out-of-sample forecasts of GDP growth for 1985-2018. The top panel compares estimates from the QR model. The bottom panel compares estimates from the five-variable BVAR-SV model. Expected longrise and shortfall: GDP growth QR vs
no DOI — not checkedLong-rise and expected shortfall using 10 and 90 percent quantiles, respectively, insample forecasts of GDP growth for 1972-2018. The top panel compares estimates from the QR and 5-variable BVAR-SV models. The bottom panel compares estimates from the BVAR-SV and BVAR-SVF-M models. longrise and shortfall for artificial data set 21
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