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Recovering Election Winner Probabilities from Stock Prices

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3739982
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5/5 checkable references clean · checked 2026-08-28

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The 5 checked references that resolve
resolves10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105883
Political event portfolios
resolves10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.12.012
Political uncertainty exposure of individual companies: The case of the Brexit referendum
resolves10.1086/501091
The Jeffords Effect
resolves10.1016/j.jpubeco.2005.06.003
Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election
resolves10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.06.013
Company stock price reactions to the 2016 election shock: Trump, taxes, and trade
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