Reference health
Models, Markets, and the Forecasting of Elections
18/18 checkable references clean · checked 2026-08-05
Every reference with a DOI in the deposited reference list resolved to a known work in Crossref or DataCite at the dated check, and none carried a retraction, withdrawal, or removal notice.
21 without a DOI — not checked. A reference deposited without a DOI is never matched by title or guessed at; it stays outside the checked set, and this line discloses that.
The 18 checked references that resolve
resolves10.1016/j.obhdp.2020.02.001
Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters
resolves10.1016/S1574-0722(07)00080-7
Chapter 80 Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research
resolves10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2
VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY
resolves10.1111/j.1475-4932.2006.00343.x
Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets*
resolves10.1080/01621459.2012.737735
Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States
resolves10.5750/jpm.v10i1.1179
Trading Strategies and Market Microstructure: Evidence from a Prediction Market
resolves10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.09.009
Combining multiple probability predictions using a simple logit model
The 21 references without a DOI — listed, not checked
no DOI — not checkedAn Improved Model for Predicting Presidential Election Outcomes
no DOI — not checkedForecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model
no DOI — not checkedIt's the Pandemic, Stupid! A Simplified Model for Forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election
no DOI — not checkedPrediction and Policy in a Complex System
no DOI — not checkedref6
no DOI — not checkedref12
no DOI — not checkedref13
no DOI — not checkedA Long-Range State-Level Forecast of the 2020 Presidential Election
no DOI — not checkedref15
no DOI — not checkedAnatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market
no DOI — not checkedref20
no DOI — not checkedAn Updated Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting Model for the US Presidential Election
no DOI — not checkedPollster problems in the 2016 US presidential election: vote intention, vote prediction. Quaderni dell'Osservatorio elettorale
no DOI — not checkedState-Level Forecasts for the 2020 US Presidential Election: Tough Victory Ahead for Biden
no DOI — not checkedref24
no DOI — not checkedref27
no DOI — not checkedref28
no DOI — not checkedCitizen Forecasting 2020: A State-by-State Experiment
no DOI — not checkedref32
no DOI — not checkedref36
no DOI — not checkedPresidential Election Results
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