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Macroeconomic and Credit Forecasts in a Small Economy During Crisis: A Large Bayesian VAR Approach

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4184651
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31/31 checkable references clean · checked 2026-08-28

Every reference with a DOI in the deposited reference list resolved to a known work in Crossref or DataCite at the dated check, and none carried a retraction, withdrawal, or removal notice.

18 without a DOI — not checked. A reference deposited without a DOI is never matched by title or guessed at; it stays outside the checked set, and this line discloses that.

The 31 checked references that resolve
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Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian shrinkage a valid alternative to principal components?
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Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions
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The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads
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The Crisis in the Euro Area: An Analytic Overview
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Fundamentally Wrong: Market Pricing of Sovereigns and the Greek Financial Crisis
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Zero lower bound, ECB interest rate policy and the financial crisis
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Economic and statistical measures of forecast accuracy
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Forecasting macroeconomic variables in a small open economy: a comparison between small‐ and large‐scale models
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Choosing the Best Volatility Models: The Model Confidence Set Approach*
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The Model Confidence Set
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Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area
resolves10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199703)12:2<99::AID-JAE429>3.0.CO;2-A
NUMERICAL METHODS FOR ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE IN BAYESIAN VAR-MODELS
resolves10.1016/B978-0-444-62731-5.00015-4
Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression
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Comment on “Fundamentally Wrong: Market Pricing of Sovereigns and the Greek Financial Crisis”
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Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics
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Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARS
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Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies
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On the forecasting accuracy of multivariate GARCH models
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A methodology for constructing a financial systemic stress index: An application to Greece
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The unbeatable random walk in exchange rate forecasting: Reality or myth?
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Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models
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A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance
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The Greek Economy and Banking System: Recent Developments and the Way Forward
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Macroeconomics and Reality
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Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes
resolves10.1016/S1574-0706(05)01010-4
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Why Firms Avoid Cutting Wages: Survey Evidence from European Firms
The 18 references without a DOI — listed, not checked
no DOI — not checked2013 stress test of the Greek banking sector. Bank of Greece
no DOI — not checkedTrusting the bankers: A new look at the credit channel of monetary policy
no DOI — not checkedShort-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoreggressive approach
no DOI — not checkedForecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions: five years of experience
no DOI — not checkedA financial systemic stress index for Greece
no DOI — not checkedCan exchange rate models outperform the random walk? Magnitude, direction and profitability as criteria
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What this badge says. CiteStamped means the CHECKABLE references of this work were clean at the dated check: each resolved to a known work in a public registry, and none carried a retraction notice at that time. It says nothing about the quality, findings, or importance of the work itself, and nothing about references deposited without a DOI.

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