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Uncertainty, Justification, and Enterprise: Modernizing Frank Knight's Forgotten Construct
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F. H. Knight’s <i>Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit</i> and J. M. Keynes’ <i>Treatise on Probability</i> after 100 years
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no DOI — not checkedJohn Maynard Keynes, 1883-1946: Economist, philosopher, statesman. Penguin Books. Skidelsky, R
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no DOI — not checkedthe role that Risk, Uncertainty and Profit is best known for today is the contribution it made to the teaching of and theorizing about competitive markets
no DOI — not checkedsuccess of RUP reflected its use to teach price theory (how competition influences the formation of market prices) in the 1930s and 1940s, most notably at the University of Chicago and the London School of Economics. Yet, according to Emmett (p. 536) "some Chicago and LSE students read Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit as a cautionary tale regarding the predictive power of the price theory that Knight, Viner, and others taught
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no DOI — not checkedKnight's long editorship helped put The Journal of Political Economy, in the very top tier -and he published many of his own math-and statistics-free articles in it
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no DOI — not checkedPhelps's (unsigned) summary of the Aims and Scope of Capitalism and Society (Capitalism and Society: A
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no DOI — not checkedvalue or validity or dependability of our opinions and estimates and such an estimate has the same form as a probability judgment; it is a ratio, expressed by a proper fraction;" and likewise that: "The individual ... throws his estimate of the value of an opinion into the probability form of 'a successes in b trials' (a/b being a proper fraction) and 'feels' toward it as toward any other probability situation
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no DOI — not checkedHe does not provide much justification for this precept, however, apparently regarding it as self
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no DOI — not checked26 Operated by an agency of the US government later and renamed the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute in 1976 27
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no DOI — not checkedImproved Tests Help Doctors Diagnose Disease Earlier, Attempt to Avoid Surgery ---Search for a 'Silent Enemy
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no DOI — not checkedAs a work claiming to break new ground in probability theory, the [Treatise] understandably provided little discussion of non-probabilistic situations. Nevertheless, completeness required their acknowledgement, and one clear example was given
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no DOI — not checked64 Samuelson's 1946 tribute to Keynes, anticipated his subsequent treatment, of Keynes's General Theory: "[U]ntil the appearance of the mathematical models of Meade, Lange, Hicks, and Harrod there is reason to believe that Keynes himself did not truly understand his own analysis
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no DOI — not checkedKahneman's comment published at the end of the Rakow's article indicates, in my view, defensiveness about Kahneman's failure to cite Knight's ideas. Knight, Kahneman argues had not been part of the recently dominant conversation. Knight's prior ideas about behavior therefore did not deserve any more attention than Kahneman's grandmother's who had similar ideas
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no DOI — not checkedAutobiographical Essay
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no DOI — not checked22 Simon however goes on to argue that in fact the differences between the rationality of economics and the other social sciences are "often differences in vocabulary more than in substance
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no DOI — not checked58 This may be a stretch for some of the research
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no DOI — not checkedHis second landmark behavioral paper was published in Psychology Today. The American Psychological Foundation awarded Simon its Gold Medal Award for Life Achievement in Psychological Science in 1988 and the American Psychological Association honored him with its Award for Outstanding Lifetime Contribution to Psychology in 1993
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no DOI — not checkedWe just flew back from London. Initially the plane cruised by 36,000 feet, then just west of Greenland, the plane climbed to 39,000 feet -the air is thinner at 39.000 feet and a gallon of fuel moves the plane further. Why didn't the pilot continue the climb to 39,000 feet when we left Heathrow? The plane was too heavy when it was nearly full of fuel --50,000 gallons --whose weight of 330,000 pounds was many times the weight of the passengers and luggage. Most of the cost of the flight is moving the fuel that is needed to move the passengers
no DOI — not checkedTwo figures who helped to found psychology as a formal discipline and science in the 19th century were Wilhelm Wundt in Germany and William James in the United States. James's The Principles of Psychology (1890) defined psychology as the science of mental life and provided insightful discussions of topics and challenges that anticipated much of the field's research agenda a century later
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no DOI — not checkedEllsberg's retrospective says that writing his 1961 paper led him to conclude that maximizing the probability weighted utilities --was an "inadequate, misleading and wrongheaded as a universal normative (or descriptive) principle
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no DOI — not checkedprovided a method for testing normative theories that distinguished between mistakes and deliberate violations of axioms: "In general, a person who has tentatively accepted a normative theory must conscientiously study situations in which the theory seems to lead him astray; he must decide for each by reflection � whether to retain his initial impression of the situation or to accept the implications of the theory for it
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no DOI — not checkedOn the contrary, that article, which reflects my thinking between 1957 and 1961 represents only Endnotes 197 about ten percent of the material covered in the thesis, which reflects very extensive reading of related references in 1962 and a much more elaborate analysis of alternative approaches, leading up to a new decision rule for choice under uncertainty
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no DOI — not checkedK-T's psychology "provided a way to model bounded rationality which is more like standard economics than the more radical departure that Simon had in mind. Much of behavioral economics consists of trying to incorporate this kind of psychology into economics
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no DOI — not checkedSocial Sciences and Social Work 39 Six other possibilities were unrelated and miscellaneous (e.g., elementary school teacher, psychiatric social worker). 40 Kahneman and Frederick
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no DOI — not checked49 Concern with the "dark side" of persuasion, conformity, and cognitive consistency had stimulated social psychologists' research on such topics. And "the social evil with the greatest fascination for social psychologists" was "the combination of stereotyping, prejudice, and discrimination," making K-T's insights about bias "highly relevant
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no DOI — not checkedUniversity of Chicago's business school, now known as the Booth School. 11 Shiller even asked me to discuss a paper in the July
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no DOI — not checkedNor do I deny that psychological factors influence securities prices. But I am convinced that Benjamin Graham (1965) was correct in suggesting that while the stock market in the short run may be a voting mechanism, in the long run it is a weighing mechanism. True value will win out in the end. Before the fact, there is no way in which investors can reliably exploit any anomalies or patterns that might exist. I am skeptical that any of the "predictable patterns" that have been documented in the literature were ever sufficiently robust so as to have created profitable investment opportunities
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no DOI — not checkedHowever, options on "when issued" securities with no historical trading information have higher uncertainty than options on seasoned issues, regardless of their risk returns. 28 The potential mistakes of interest are what Hammond (1996) calls errors of "correspondence" to true conditions, not of "coherence" -failing to conform to rational standards. For example, expecting continued sunshine when a radar map the forecaster has not seen shows a rapidly approaching front is a correspondence error. Conversely, predictions of imminent rain that reflect unhappy moods exemplify coherence errors. 29 Missing clues in a crossword provide another example. If someone has torn off the clues, uncertainty about the successful completion increases. Conversely, experience with the crossword compiler's style -getting into the compiler's head, as one friend put it -reduces the uncertainty of successful completion. 30 Sah and Stigliz
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no DOI — not checkedAccording to an OECD survey, entrepreneurs seek investors who can provide "expertise, experience, contacts, and reputation, alongside funding
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no DOI — not checkedBy delaying calls, VCs can avoid stockpiling low-yielding cash which would reduce the overall returns for the life of the partnership. However, this requires the limited partners to set aside the low-yielding cash without knowing when the VC will issue a capital call, reducing the returns of investors' portfolios. 34 And history suggests that investors in VC partnerships have reason to be concerned about the capabilities of the general partners. Investors in the typical VC fund, which locks them in for ten years, cannot expect to earn higher returns than from similar portfolios of publicly traded stocks
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no DOI — not checked41 Lockheed, then the largest defense contractor in the US was similarly bailed out in 1971
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no DOI — not checkedHammer and Champy's 1993 best seller --Reengineering the Corporation: Manifesto for Business Revolution --made reengineering the "next new thing" and a "catch all catch-all for layoffs and unreasonable performance expectations
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no DOI — not checkedKleiner, Perkins) may occasionally broker mutually beneficial transactions between portfolio companies
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no DOI — not checked) note, they require boards empowered to control important decisions. 44 One director of the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust asserted a deliberate policy of excluding directors with investment management experience. Agnew et. al. 2023 45 Knight had conceptualized a "tiered" division for the specialization of judgment within large organizations -a forerunner to the more sophisticated hierarchical partitioning in Fama and Jensen's theory summarized above
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no DOI — not checkedA phenomenon I analyzed for my doctoral dissertation and published in Bhid� 1989. Stock markets and management gurus continued however to applaud General Electric's unrelated acquisitions which preceded the 1960s conglometarization wave. The conglomerate was the second largest US public company by market capitalization at the start of 2000 and its CEO Jack Welch had become a cult hero. However, that more than a century-old enterprise also unraveled after 2016. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is now virtually the only prominent well-regarded conglomerate. 65 The top two -Apple and Microsoft were founded in 1976 and 1975 respectively. Three (Amazon, Nvidia, and Google/Alphabet) were 1990s-born. Two (Tesla and Facebook/Meta) are millennials
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