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Sea ice decline and 21st century trans‐Arctic shipping routes

https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl069315
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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Predicting September sea ice: Ensemble skill of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2013
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Influence of climate model variability on projected Arctic shipping futures
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl066855openalex-snapshot
Regional variability of a projected sea ice‐free Arctic during the summer months
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50876openalex-snapshot
Impact of future Arctic shipping on high‐latitude black carbon deposition
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2401openalex-snapshot
A review on Arctic sea‐ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time‐scales
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Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal‐to‐interannual Arctic sea‐ice prediction systems
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A note on two problems in connexion with graphs
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9683-2openalex-snapshot
Perspectives of Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage in the twenty-first century
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-zopenalex-snapshot
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
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Projected 21st-century changes to Arctic marine access
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2013.03.006openalex-snapshot
A six-degrees-of-freedom numerical model for level ice–ship interaction
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2011.08.006openalex-snapshot
Polar super seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: an analysis of shipowners’ intentions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.12.027openalex-snapshot
On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2014.05.005openalex-snapshot
Case studies of shipping along Arctic routes. Analysis and profitability perspectives for the container sector
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/497431aopenalex-snapshot
Arctic sea ice needs better forecasts
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1120openalex-snapshot
Divergent long-term trajectories of human access to the Arctic
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2483openalex-snapshot
Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2848openalex-snapshot
Mapping the future expansion of Arctic open water
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2939openalex-snapshot
1.5 °C and climate research after the Paris Agreement
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30682openalex-snapshot
A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214212110openalex-snapshot
New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2014.952940openalex-snapshot
The Northern Sea Route: Smooth Sailing Ahead?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937x.2013.845859openalex-snapshot
Marine accessibility along Russia's Northern Sea Route
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2014.936480openalex-snapshot
North by Northeast: toward an Asian-Arctic region
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0164openalex-snapshot
How well must climate models agree with observations?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0845:mgsiwa>2.0.co;2openalex-snapshot
Modeling Global Sea Ice with a Thickness and Enthalpy Distribution Model in Generalized Curvilinear Coordinates
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Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli4083.1openalex-snapshot
The Community Climate System Model Version 4
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1openalex-snapshot
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00220.1openalex-snapshot
Twenty-First-Century Arctic Climate Change in CCSM4
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00572.1openalex-snapshot
Climate Change Projections in CESM1(CAM5) Compared to CCSM4
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3827.1openalex-snapshot
Ocean Circulation and Tropical Variability in the Coupled Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.000107openalex-snapshot
Melting ice, growing trade?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v076.i13openalex-snapshot
R Package gdistance : Distances and Routes on Geographical Grids
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011openalex-snapshot
The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2003-2016openalex-snapshot
Near-real-time Arctic sea ice thickness and volume from CryoSat-2
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2501-2016openalex-snapshot
Ice core evidence for a 20th century increase in surface mass balance in coastal Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-321-2013openalex-snapshot
Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1839-2014openalex-snapshot
Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015openalex-snapshot
Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

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The influence of declining sea ice on shipping activity in the Canadian Arctic
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Using a skillful statistical model to predict September sea ice covering Arctic shipping routes
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Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness data assimilation in the FIO-ESM climate forecast system
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Why Are Arctic Sea Ice Concentration in September and Its Interannual Variability Well Predicted over the Barents–East Siberian Seas by CFSv2?
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Anthropogenic impacts on the Atlantic walrus
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Big-data-driven Arctic maritime transportation
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Arctic sea ice variation in the Northwest Passage in 1979–2017 and its response to surface thermodynamics factors
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Navigability of the Northern Sea Route for Arc7 ice-class vessels during winter and spring sea-ice conditions
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Impacts of 1.5 °C global warming on hydrological conditions of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage
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Polar cod early life stage exposure to potential oil spills in the Arctic
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Scientists' warning of an imperiled ocean
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Using the forward movement of a container ship navigating in the Arctic to air-cool a marine organic Rankine cycle unit
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An overview of the legal search and rescue framework and related infrastructure along the Arctic Northeast Passage
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The long-term fate of saturates and biomarkers within crude oil spilled during the Baffin Island Oil Spill (BIOS) Project
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Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of Arctic shipping black carbon emissions based on AIS data 2016 to 2022
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Evaluation and analysis of the static strength of ice-class propellers
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Numerical simulation for ice breaking and water entry of sphere
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Numerical modelling of the dynamic ice-milling process and structural response of a propeller blade profile with state-based peridynamics
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Data fusion and machine learning for ship fuel consumption modelling – a case of bulk carrier vessel
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2026.125184openalex-snapshot
Path planning for safe ice navigation of icebreakers: A collaborative decision-making method based on multimodal data association and dynamic window optimization
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2026.125441openalex-snapshot
Hybrid deep-learning prediction of ship ice resistance in broken ice based on CFD-DEM simulations
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2026.125609openalex-snapshot
Simulation study of ice fracture and ship–ice collision based on the material point method
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2026.126692openalex-snapshot
Prediction of Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness using a cross-attention enhanced PredRNN
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2026.126867openalex-snapshot
Environmental regionalisation of the Arctic Ocean and its implications for navigation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2026.127237openalex-snapshot
Deep learning-based shipborne sea-ice segmentation for ice-channel perception during Arctic convoy operations
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2026.127905openalex-snapshot
STGT edge-priority heuristic-guided QPSO for dynamic Arctic ship route optimization
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2026.127942openalex-snapshot
A viscoelastic-plastic model for ice over a wide range of strain rates based on Peridynamics
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107251openalex-snapshot
Narwhal, beluga and bowhead whale responses to marine vessel traffic: A systematic map
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107320openalex-snapshot
Influence of sea ice on ship routes and speed along the Arctic Northeast Passage
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107346openalex-snapshot
Exploring the dynamic impact of the Northern Sea Route on China-Europe multimodal transportation competition in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107492openalex-snapshot
Asia‒Europe liner shipping network design model considering Arctic route and black carbon tax
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.12.003openalex-snapshot
CMIP5-based global wave climate projections including the entire Arctic Ocean
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102326openalex-snapshot
A deep learning-based bias correction model for Arctic sea ice concentration towards MITgcm
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2018.01.002openalex-snapshot
Predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone on medium-range timescales
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2019.02.003openalex-snapshot
Skill of medium-range reforecast for summertime extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in 1986–2016
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2025.101168openalex-snapshot
An investigation into oil spill dynamics affected by floe-like obstacles with various distributions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2026.101392openalex-snapshot
Sustainable polar shipping under climate change: A bibliometric review of emissions and efficiency
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106222openalex-snapshot
Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcar.2025.06.004openalex-snapshot
Input-output analysis of economic linkages between China and Arctic countries
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100176openalex-snapshot
Evolutionary characteristics of export trade network in the Arctic region
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.10.017openalex-snapshot
Comparing L- and C-band synthetic aperture radar estimates of sea ice motion over different ice regimes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2019.100856openalex-snapshot
New insights into the quantitative description of seasonal sea ice variability process in the semi-closed Kara Sea
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2025.104627openalex-snapshot
A numerical model to assess the consequences of a nuclear accident in the Kara Sea
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2018.11.018openalex-snapshot
Towards reliable Arctic sea ice prediction using multivariate data assimilation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141264openalex-snapshot
Microplastics do not increase bioaccumulation of petroleum hydrocarbons in Arctic zooplankton but trigger feeding suppression under co-exposure conditions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154886openalex-snapshot
Microplastic ingestion in zooplankton from the Fram Strait in the Arctic
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166966openalex-snapshot
Landsat-derived impervious surface area expansion in the Arctic from 1985 to 2021
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178025openalex-snapshot
Oil spills in coastal regions of the Arctic and Subarctic: Environmental impacts, response tactics, and preparedness
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179083openalex-snapshot
Long-term reanalysis, future scenarios and impacts of nitrogen deposition on northern European ecosystems including the Baltic Sea and the Scandinavian Mountains
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2021.105165openalex-snapshot
Editorial: Arctic safety
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2021.06.022openalex-snapshot
A techno-economic environmental cost model for Arctic shipping
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.08.015openalex-snapshot
Comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of Arctic and international shipping routes: A Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2019.07.003openalex-snapshot
Feasibility of the Northern Sea Route: The role of distance, fuel prices, ice breaking fees and ship size for the product tanker market
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2021.102235openalex-snapshot
Feasibility of the Northeast Passage: The role of vessel speed, route planning, and icebreaking assistance determined by sea-ice conditions for the container shipping market during 2020–2030
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2021.102423openalex-snapshot
Comparing the minimal costs of Arctic container shipping between China and Europe: A network schemes perspective
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2025.104507openalex-snapshot
Arctic route planning under ice uncertainty: A risk-averse stochastic shortest path problem
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2022.100659openalex-snapshot
The impact of adding the Northern sea route to the Belt and Road Initiative for Europe: A chain cost approach
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2026.101841openalex-snapshot
Arctic shipping under global change: A case study of offshore oil exports
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2023.11.779openalex-snapshot
The sustainability of the Arctic: A case study analysis of container shipping
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157926.012openalex-snapshot
Transport
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.005openalex-snapshot
Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.016openalex-snapshot
North America
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.023openalex-snapshot
Polar Regions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.026openalex-snapshot
Decision-Making Options for Managing Risk
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108381598.003openalex-snapshot
Atmospheric Emissions from Ships
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/s0373463318000759openalex-snapshot
Bi-level Game Model for Interaction between Arctic and Traditional Routes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b00030openalex-snapshot
Increasingly Important Role of Russian Emissions in Modulating the Arctic Climate System
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b06463openalex-snapshot
Integrating Dispersants in Oil Spill Response in Arctic and Other Icy Environments
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078969openalex-snapshot
Climatic Responses to Future Trans‐Arctic Shipping
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2018jc013763openalex-snapshot
Attenuation and Directional Spreading of Ocean Waves During a Storm Event in the Autumn Beaufort Sea Marginal Ice Zone
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl082947openalex-snapshot
A Spring Barrier for Regional Predictions of Summer Arctic Sea Ice
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085666openalex-snapshot
Nonstationary Teleconnection Between the Pacific Ocean and Arctic Sea Ice
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2019jc015311openalex-snapshot
Spatiotemporal Observations of Wave Dispersion Within Sea Ice Using Sentinel‐1 SAR TOPS Mode
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2019ms001938openalex-snapshot
Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Using a Newly Developed Fully Coupled Regional Model With the Assimilation of Satellite Sea Ice Observations
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094309openalex-snapshot
Constraining the Date of a Seasonally Ice‐Free Arctic Using a Simple Model
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097476openalex-snapshot
The Challenge of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Prediction by ECMWF on Subseasonal Time Scales
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021jc017466openalex-snapshot
Improved Arctic Sea Ice Freeboard Retrieval From Satellite Altimetry Using Optimized Sea Surface Decorrelation Scales
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021jd035144openalex-snapshot
Seasonal Influence of the Atmosphere and Ocean on the Fall Sea Ice Extent in the Barents‐Kara Seas
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021jd036216openalex-snapshot
What Mainly Drives the Interannual Climate Variability Over the Barents‐Kara Seas in Boreal Early Autumn?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002853openalex-snapshot
Aotearoa New Zealand's 21st‐Century Wildfire Climate
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl099157openalex-snapshot
The Emerging Arctic Shipping Corridors
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl102115openalex-snapshot
Reducing the Spring Barrier in Predicting Summer Arctic Sea Ice Concentration
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl102216openalex-snapshot
Estimating Arctic Ocean Acoustic Travel Times Using an Earth System Model
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl102395openalex-snapshot
Adapting to a Foggy Future Along Trans‐Arctic Shipping Routes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl104461openalex-snapshot
Retrieval of Snow Depth on Arctic Sea Ice From Surface‐Based, Polarimetric, Dual‐Frequency Radar Altimetry
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023jd038793openalex-snapshot
A Warmer and Wetter Arctic: Insights From a 20‐Years AIRS Record
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023jd038824openalex-snapshot
Investigating Future Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Near‐Surface Wind Speed Changes Related to Surface Roughness Using the Community Earth System Model
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023jd038851openalex-snapshot
Impact of Data Assimilation in Sensitive Features on the Predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023jd039620openalex-snapshot
Comparison of Intense Summer Arctic Cyclones Between the Marginal Ice Zone and Central Arctic
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024jc022206openalex-snapshot
Assimilating Observations to Improve Arctic Sea Ice Seasonal Prediction: A Variational Autoencoder Latent Space Particle Filter Approach
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024jd041963openalex-snapshot
Measurements of the Emission Rates of Nitrogen Oxides and Greenhouse Gases From the Prudhoe Bay Oil Field
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024jd042196openalex-snapshot
Impact of Assimilating WindBorne Observations Following Different Parts of a TPV on the Predictability of an Arctic Cyclone During THINICE
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2025ea004828openalex-snapshot
Prospects for Arctic Summertime Sea Ice Prediction Based on Arctic Seasonal Prediction System (ArcSPS)
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl121181openalex-snapshot
A Sea Ice Entrapment Event in the Southern Chukchi Sea: Analysis and Prediction
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd043539openalex-snapshot
Mechanisms and Structure of Intense Summer Arctic Cyclones Compared to Mid‐Latitude Cyclones
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd045656openalex-snapshot
Attributing Variations of Winter and Summer Near Surface Wind Speeds Over the Arctic Ocean
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2026jd047482openalex-snapshot
Cross‐Basin Synergistic Effects Stall Summer Sea Ice Decline in the Chukchi Sea
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34126-7openalex-snapshot
The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5openalex-snapshot
The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-63520-0openalex-snapshot
Recent slowing of Arctic sea ice melt tied to multidecadal NAO variability
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01087-6openalex-snapshot
Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming on ship navigation in the Canadian Arctic
showing the first 200 of 413
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