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Predicting turning points in business cycles by detection of slope changes in the leading composite index
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What this work says
Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980040306openalex-snapshot
Bayesian forecasts following a major level change in exponential smoothing
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980080105openalex-snapshot
On detecting and estimating a major level or slope change in general exponential smoothing
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(82)90014-8openalex-snapshot
Optimal prediction of cyclical downturns
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6377(84)90001-4openalex-snapshot
Exponential smoothing — I
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(89)90061-7openalex-snapshot
Diffusion indexes and a statistical test for predicting turning points in business cycles
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781139173735.005openalex-snapshot
A probability model of the coincident economic indicators
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1983.10509355openalex-snapshot
Forecasting Economic Time Series With Structural and Box-Jenkins Models: A Case Study
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/261226openalex-snapshot
Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/296154openalex-snapshot
Sequential Signals of Recession and Recovery
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/654119openalex-snapshot
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3662550openalex-snapshot
Discussion: “The Measurement of Oil-Film Thickness in Gear Teeth” (MacConochie, I. O., and Cameron, A., 1960, ASME J. Basic Eng., 82, pp. 29–34)
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3662552openalex-snapshot
A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.55openalex-snapshot
Business Cycle Modeling Without Pretending to Have Too Much A Priori Economic Theory
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1391661openalex-snapshot
Forecasting Economic Time Series with Structural and Box-Jenkins Models: A Case Study
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1912349openalex-snapshot
Lead-Lag Relations, Exogeneity and Prediction of Economic Time Series
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1923943openalex-snapshot
The Index of Leading Indicators: "Measurement without Theory," Thirty-Five Years Later
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/3150485openalex-snapshot
Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w0761openalex-snapshot
The Index of Leading Indicators: "Measurement without Theory," Twenty-Five Years Later
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w1503openalex-snapshot
Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226304595.001.0001openalex-snapshot
The American Business Cycle
What points at this work
Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1972581openalex-extracted
Structural Change Detection in Multivariate Dynamic Linear Model with Application to Business Cycle
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1996996openalex-extracted
Discerning ‘Turning Points’ with Cyclical Indicators: A Few Lessons from ‘Real Time’ Monitoring the 2008–2009 Recession
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2360856openalex-extracted
A Bayesian Approach to Adapting Forecasts to Structural Changes in a Simple State-Space Model
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2527779openalex-extracted
A Bayesian Sequential Method for Identifying Structural Shocks and Adaptive Forecasting in State Space Model
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/for.966openalex-snapshot
Statistical surveillance of cyclical processes with application to turns in business cycles
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-04898-2_26openalex-snapshot
Detection of Turning Points in Business Cycles
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-69359-9_174openalex-snapshot
Detection of Turning Points in Business Cycles
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/springerreference_205116openalex-snapshot
Detection of Turning Points in Business Cycles
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2005.11.178openalex-snapshot
Decision-making, risk and corporate governance: A critique of methodological issues in bankruptcy/recovery prediction models
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2016.06.001openalex-snapshot
A novel trend surveillance system using the information from web search engines
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2011.12.012openalex-snapshot
A novel business cycle surveillance system using the query logs of search engines
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1080/0266476022000006685openalex-snapshot
Monitoring cyclical processes. A non-parametric approach
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1080/02664760500445517openalex-snapshot
Some statistical aspects of methods for detection of turning points in business cycles
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2008.01076.xopenalex-snapshot
A SYSTEM FOR DATING AND DETECTING TURNING POINTS IN THE EURO AREA
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art6-enopenalex-snapshot
Detection of Turning Points in Business Cycles
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-875795/v1openalex-snapshot
A Mathematical Modeling Framework To Detect The Optimal Financial Turning Points
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