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Temperature trends and prediction skill in NMME seasonal forecasts

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3657-2
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture‐temperature feedbacks
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Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset
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Decadal variations in the global atmospheric land temperatures
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Europe's 2003 heat wave: a satellite view of impacts and land–atmosphere feedbacks
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Evaluating the skill of NMME seasonal precipitation ensemble predictions for 17 hydroclimatic regions in continental China
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Medium‐range multimodel ensemble combination and calibration
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Effective use of general circulation model outputs for forecasting monthly rainfalls to long lead times
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Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3286-1openalex-snapshot
Evaluation of the skill of North-American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Global Climate Models in predicting average and extreme precipitation and temperature over the continental USA
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Excess mortality related to the August 2003 heat wave in France
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4openalex-snapshot
Going to the Extremes
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Going to the extremes
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Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation
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Estimating irrigation use and effects on maize yield during the 2003 heatwave in France
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.12.005openalex-snapshot
The forecast combination puzzle: A simple theoretical explanation
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Forecasting Financial and Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Reduction Methods: New Empirical Evidence
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GNU Octave and reproducible research
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Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
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On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe
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The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges.
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Recent temperature extremes at high northern latitudes unprecedented in the past 600 years
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1032openalex-snapshot
Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe
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An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress
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Increase of extreme events in a warming world
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114020openalex-snapshot
Recent changes in Arctic temperature extremes: warm and cold spells during winter and summer
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024005openalex-snapshot
Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024014openalex-snapshot
Up-to-date probabilistic temperature climatologies
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094007openalex-snapshot
Improved sub-seasonal meteorological forecast skill using weighted multi-model ensemble simulations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034018openalex-snapshot
Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024009openalex-snapshot
Are climate model simulations useful for forecasting precipitation trends? Hindcast and synthetic-data experiments
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01817.xopenalex-snapshot
Climate extremes initiate ecosystem‐regulating functions while maintaining productivity
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12044openalex-snapshot
MODEL AVERAGING IN ECONOMICS: AN OVERVIEW
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.285.5433.1548openalex-snapshot
Improved Weather and Seasonal Climate Forecasts from Multimodel Superensemble
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/404876openalex-snapshot
Estimating Climate Trends: Application to United States Plant Hardiness Zones
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/480210openalex-snapshot
Information Content of Seasonal Forecasts in a Changing Climate
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2568.1openalex-snapshot
Hot European Summers and the Role of Soil Moisture in the Propagation of Mediterranean Drought
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3361.1openalex-snapshot
Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/2009mwr2893.1openalex-snapshot
On the Weighting of Multimodel Ensembles in Seasonal and Short-Range Weather Forecasting
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/2010mwr3305.1openalex-snapshot
Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-12-00050.1openalex-snapshot
The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00386.1openalex-snapshot
Merging Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts from Multiple Statistical Models through Bayesian Model Averaging
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00177.1openalex-snapshot
Short-Term Climate Extremes: Prediction Skill and Predictability
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00030.1openalex-snapshot
Scale-Selective Ridge Regression for Multimodel Forecasting
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00597.1openalex-snapshot
Predictability and Forecast Skill in NMME
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli4223.1openalex-snapshot
Climate and Vegetation in the Middle East: Interannual Variability and Drought Feedbacks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli4288.1openalex-snapshot
Soil Moisture–Atmosphere Interactions during the 2003 European Summer Heat Wave
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-13-072.1openalex-snapshot
Southeastern U.S. Rainfall Prediction in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-10-05007.1openalex-snapshot
A Dynamical Performance-Ranking Method for Predicting Individual Ensemble Member Performance and Its Application to Ensemble Averaging
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-12-00302.1openalex-snapshot
The Possible Reasons for the Misrepresented Long-Term Climate Trends in the Seasonal Forecasts of HFP2
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-10-05009.1openalex-snapshot
Evaluation of IRI’s Seasonal Climate Forecasts for the Extreme 15% Tails
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-19openalex-snapshot
IRI Data Library: enhancing accessibility of climate knowledge
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.22.10.1087openalex-snapshot
Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1002430openalex-snapshot
Toward a Quantitative Estimate of Future Heat Wave Mortality under Global Climate Change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.32614/cran.package.scoringrulesopenalex-snapshot
scoringRules: Scoring Rules for Parametric and Simulated Distribution Forecasts
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4020019openalex-snapshot
Ensemble Forecasts: Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts Based on a Model Ensemble
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.4172/2327-4581.1000101openalex-snapshot
A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.4172/2327-4581.1000103openalex-snapshot
Berkeley Earth Temperature Averaging Process
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1963-2013openalex-snapshot
Impacts of soil–aquifer heat and water fluxes on simulated global climate
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.112openalex-snapshot
SeFo: A Package for Generating Probabilistic Forecasts from NMME Predictive Ensembles

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

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Financial Markets and Climate Models: An Empirical Study on Corn Futures
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/asl.818openalex-snapshot
Bias correction to improve the skill of summer precipitation forecasts over the contiguous United States by the North American multi‐model ensemble system
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10500144.1openalex-snapshot
A Hiatus in Midlatitude Winter Warming? Updated Trends in Annual Minimum Temperatures
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6788openalex-snapshot
Embedding trend into seasonal temperature forecasts through statistical calibration of GCM outputs
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7515openalex-snapshot
Introducing long‐term trends into subseasonal temperature forecasts through trend‐aware postprocessing
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7586openalex-snapshot
Rainy season precipitation forecasts in coastal Peru from the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/met.2074openalex-snapshot
Predictive skill of North American Multi‐Model Ensemble seasonal forecasts for the climate rainfall over Central Africa
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-39147-7_7openalex-snapshot
Emerging Opportunities in Low-Frequency Variability of Renewable Resources: A 7-Year Update
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106461openalex-snapshot
Skill assessment of Saudi-KAU and C3S models in prediction of spring season rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100592openalex-snapshot
On using dynamical seasonal forecasts to develop management-driven wildland fire outlooks in Alaska
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125862openalex-snapshot
On the use of convolutional Gaussian processes to improve the seasonal forecasting of precipitation and temperature
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127058openalex-snapshot
Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecast from the North American Multi-Model ensemble phase II (NMME-2) over the contiguous U.S.
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.129005openalex-snapshot
NASA’s NMME-based S2S hydrologic forecast system for food insecurity early warning in southern Africa
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl077945openalex-snapshot
Enhancing the Predictability of Seasonal Streamflow With a Statistical‐Dynamical Approach
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl087408openalex-snapshot
Evolution of the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl110703openalex-snapshot
Trends, Skill, and Sources of Skill in Initialized Climate Forecasts of Global Mean Temperature
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024jd042461openalex-snapshot
Global Temperature Forecasting Incrementally Improved by Model Output Statistics
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad8bdeopenalex-snapshot
Seasonal forecasts have sufficient skill to inform some agricultural decisions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1109/jsen.2019.2895735openalex-snapshot
Long-Range Raman Distributed Fiber Temperature Sensor With Early Warning Model for Fire Detection and Prevention
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1142/s2345737624500039openalex-snapshot
Evolution of the NMME Rainfall Seasonal Forecasting over Central Africa
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-20-0327.1openalex-snapshot
A Decade of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME): Research, Application, and Future Directions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-19-0095.1openalex-snapshot
Global Evaluation of Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts from NMME
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-21-0099.1openalex-snapshot
Improved Trend-Aware Postprocessing of GCM Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0064.1openalex-snapshot
Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0159.1openalex-snapshot
Spatial and Temporal Variation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Precipitation Reforecast Skill across the CONUS
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-20-0318.1openalex-snapshot
Going with the Trend: Forecasting Seasonal Climate Conditions under Climate Change
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-24-0123.1openalex-snapshot
Initialized Seasonal Prediction with the NCAR Models in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME)
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4605484/v1openalex-snapshot
Skillful land and marine heatwave forecasting through hybrid statistical dynamical modelling
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.34133/olar.0043openalex-snapshot
Diagnosing Overlapping and Differing Information for SPEAR and CFSv2 Global Precipitation Forecasts
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-494-ac1openalex-snapshot
Reply on RC1
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-494-ac2openalex-snapshot
Reply on RC2
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-494-rc1openalex-snapshot
Comment on hess-2021-494
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-494-rc2openalex-snapshot
Comment on hess-2021-494
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022openalex-snapshot
Reconstructing climate trends adds skills to seasonal reference crop evapotranspiration forecasting
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