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Practical Bayesian model evaluation using leave-one-out cross-validation and WAIC
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What this work says
Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0919-5_38openalex-snapshot
Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle
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Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-013-9416-2openalex-snapshot
Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-016-9649-yopenalex-snapshot
Comparison of Bayesian predictive methods for model selection
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.08.001openalex-snapshot
Predictive likelihood for Bayesian model selection and averaging
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.10.002openalex-snapshot
Testing the assumptions behind importance sampling
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511790942openalex-snapshot
Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10481632openalex-snapshot
A Predictive Approach to Model Selection
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1994.10476469openalex-snapshot
Sequential Imputations and Bayesian Missing Data Problems
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1997.10473617openalex-snapshot
On the Variability of Case-Deletion Importance Sampling Weights in the Bayesian Linear Model
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/bti319openalex-snapshot
Bayesian model averaging: development of an improved multi-class, gene selection and classification tool for microarray data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/76.3.503openalex-snapshot
A comparative study of ordinary cross-validation, v-fold cross-validation and the repeated learning-testing methods
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxm049openalex-snapshot
Penalized loss functions for Bayesian model comparison
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198522669.003.0009openalex-snapshot
Model Determination using Predictive Distributions with Implementation via Sampling-Based Methods
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9868.00353openalex-snapshot
Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9574.2005.00278.xopenalex-snapshot
DIC in variable selection
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1977.tb01603.xopenalex-snapshot
An Asymptotic Equivalence of Choice of Model by Cross-Validation and Akaike's Criterion
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/08997660260293292openalex-snapshot
Bayesian Model Assessment and Comparison Using Cross-Validation Predictive Densities
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1198/016214506000001437openalex-snapshot
Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1198/106186008x320456openalex-snapshot
Truncated Importance Sampling
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1198/jbes.2009.07145openalex-snapshot
Model-Based Clustering of Non-Gaussian Panel Data Based on Skew- t Distributions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1198/tech.2009.08017openalex-snapshot
A New and Efficient Estimation Method for the Generalized Pareto Distribution
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1201/b14835-14openalex-snapshot
Model determination using sampling-based methods
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1214/08-ejs259openalex-snapshot
Case-deletion importance sampling estimators: Central limit theorems and related results
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1214/09-ss054openalex-snapshot
A survey of cross-validation procedures for model selection
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1214/12-ss102openalex-snapshot
A survey of Bayesian predictive methods for model assessment, selection and comparison
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1214/14-ba872openalex-snapshot
Laplace Approximation for Logistic Gaussian Process Density Estimation and Regression
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1009212519openalex-snapshot
Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial (with comments by M. Clyde, David Draper and E. I. George, and a rejoinder by the authors
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.21236/ada459827openalex-snapshot
Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction and Estimation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2336116openalex-snapshot
A Comparative Study of Ordinary Cross-Validation, v-Fold Cross-Validation and the Repeated Learning-Testing Methods
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2965438openalex-snapshot
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3102/10769986006004377openalex-snapshot
Estimation in Parallel Randomized Experiments
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.32614/cran.package.looopenalex-snapshot
loo: Efficient Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation and WAIC for Bayesian Models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.32614/cran.package.rstanarmopenalex-snapshot
rstanarm: Bayesian Applied Regression Modeling via Stan
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.32614/r.manualsopenalex-snapshot
R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1004.2316openalex-snapshot
Asymptotic Equivalence of Bayes Cross Validation and Widely Applicable Information Criterion in Singular Learning Theory
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1412.7461openalex-snapshot
Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation approximations for Gaussian latent variable models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1507.02646openalex-snapshot
Pareto Smoothed Importance Sampling
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Bottom‐up rather than top‐down mechanisms determine mesocarnivore interactions in Norway
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.11351openalex-snapshot
Broad‐scale acoustic monitoring of koala populations suggests metapopulation stability, but varying bellow rate, in the face of major disturbances and climate extremes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.11383openalex-snapshot
Behavioral trade‐offs and multitasking by elk in relation to predation risk from Mexican gray wolves
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.11418openalex-snapshot
Chronic wasting disease alters the movement behavior and habitat use of mule deer during clinical stages of infection
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3528openalex-snapshot
How tree species identity and diversity affect light transmittance to the understory in mature temperate forests
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3694openalex-snapshot
Detecting rare carnivores using scats: Implications for monitoring a fox incursion into Tasmania
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4521openalex-snapshot
Hidden cost of disease in a free‐ranging ungulate: brucellosis reduces mid‐winter pregnancy in elk
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4554openalex-snapshot
Evaluating the individuality of animal‐habitat relationships
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4700openalex-snapshot
Timing of maternal exposure to toxic cyanobacteria and offspring fitness in Daphnia magna: Implications for the evolution of anticipatory maternal effects
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4835openalex-snapshot
Pollinator size and its consequences: Robust estimates of body size in pollinating insects
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5558openalex-snapshot
Detection error influences both temporal seroprevalence predictions and risk factors associations in wildlife disease models
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5754openalex-snapshot
Metacommunity theory for transmission of heritable symbionts within insect communities
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5778openalex-snapshot
Site fertility drives temporal turnover of vegetation at high latitudes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973openalex-snapshot
Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7025openalex-snapshot
Resource‐driven colonization by cod in a high Arctic food web
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70785openalex-snapshot
Extensive Admixture Among Karst‐Obligate Salamanders Reveals Evidence of Recent Divergence and Gene Exchange Through Aquifers
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70988openalex-snapshot
Three‐Dimensional Habitat Structure Drives Avian Functional and Trait Diversity Across North America
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7115openalex-snapshot
Can evolutionary theories of dispersal and senescence predict postrelease survival, dispersal, and body condition of a reintroduced threatened mammal?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.72023openalex-snapshot
The Secret of Secrets: Carbonic Anhydrase Concentration in Lizards' Femoral Gland Secretions Is Tuned to Environmental Conditions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7286openalex-snapshot
Biogeographic position and body size jointly set lower thermal limits of wandering spiders
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.73852openalex-snapshot
Using Landsat Satellite Imagery to Investigate Spatial and Temporal Variation in Life History Traits in a Long‐Term Study Population of Superb Fairy‐Wrens Malurus cyaneus
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.74036openalex-snapshot
Energy Channel Coupling by Mid‐Trophic Level Fish Challenges the Landscape Theory for Food Web Architecture in a Large Tropical Lake Ecosystem
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.74391openalex-snapshot
Occupancy Baselines and Temporal Trends of Threatened Mammal Communities in Southeast Asian Mangroves
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7568openalex-snapshot
Temporal patterns of forest seedling emergence across different disturbance histories
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7657openalex-snapshot
Disentangling demographic effects of red deer on chamois population dynamics
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7775openalex-snapshot
Influence of reproductive output on divorce rates in polar seabirds
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9328openalex-snapshot
Biogeographic multi‐species occupancy models for large‐scale survey data
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1449openalex-snapshot
Developing hierarchical density‐structured models to study the national‐scale dynamics of an arable weed
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1470openalex-snapshot
A guide to state–space modeling of ecological time series
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1472openalex-snapshot
Sea otter population collapse in southwest Alaska: assessing ecological covariates, consequences, and causal factors
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1557openalex-snapshot
Cross validation for model selection: A review with examples from ecology
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1575openalex-snapshot
Using mechanistic insights to predict the climate‐induced expansion of a key aquatic predator
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1592openalex-snapshot
Environmental context, parameter sensitivity, and structural sensitivity impact predictions of annual‐plant coexistence
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.70000openalex-snapshot
Personality, space use, and networks directly and indirectly explain tick infestation in a wild population of lizards
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.70001openalex-snapshot
Pan‐amphibia distribution of the fungal parasite Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis varies with species and temperature
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.70014openalex-snapshot
Barrier features, fish traits, and river flows drive fragmentation of freshwater fish
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.70040openalex-snapshot
Neighbor density‐dependent facilitation promotes coexistence and internal oscillation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07335openalex-snapshot
The pace and drivers of community change vary over space and time – findings from a national biomonitoring programme
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07518openalex-snapshot
Stronger effect of temperature on body growth in cool than in warm populations suggests lack of local adaptation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07973openalex-snapshot
Seasonal variation in community structure and elevational distributions of mammals and birds in the Central Himalayas
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08414openalex-snapshot
Citizen science deepens the ecological and climatic dimensions of mosquito surveillance
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1477openalex-snapshot
A joint model of species interaction dynamics for multistate processes incorporating imperfect detection
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1889openalex-snapshot
Fusing tree‐ring and forest inventory data to infer influences on tree growth
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2178openalex-snapshot
Effects of spatial aggregation of nests on population recruitment: the case of a small population of Atlantic salmon
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2644openalex-snapshot
Predicting residence time using a continuous‐time discrete‐space model of leatherback turtle satellite telemetry data
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2648openalex-snapshot
Drivers of forest cover changes in the Chocó‐Darien Global Ecoregion of South America
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2893openalex-snapshot
Accounting for heterogeneity in false‐positive detection rate in southeastern beach mouse habitat occupancy models
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3061openalex-snapshot
Density‐dependent marine survival of hatchery‐origin Chinook salmon may be associated with pink salmon
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3160openalex-snapshot
Making predictive modelling ART: accurate, reliable, and transparent
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3391openalex-snapshot
Boreal conifer seedling responses to experimental competition removal during summer drought
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3395openalex-snapshot
Effects of pulsed resources on the dynamics of seed consumer populations: a comparative demographic study in wild boar
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3660openalex-snapshot
Survival of the fattest: linking body condition to prey availability and survivorship of killer whales
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3721openalex-snapshot
Empirical analyses of the factors influencing fire severity in southeastern Australia
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4148openalex-snapshot
Detectability of common ravens (Corvus corax) in the eastern USA : Rapid assessment of a recolonizing species
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4293openalex-snapshot
Behavioral cues enable native fishes to exit a California floodplain while leaving non‐native fishes behind
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4308openalex-snapshot
Shifting climate conditions affect recruitment in Midwestern stream trout, but depend on seasonal and spatial context
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4543openalex-snapshot
Effects of sea cucumber fishing on tropical seagrass productivity
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4581openalex-snapshot
Effects of human and nonhuman predation risk on antipredator movement behaviors of an upland game bird
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