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Species distribution models predict range expansion better than chance but not better than a simple dispersal model
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What this work says
Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1276openalex-snapshot
Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-74075-1openalex-snapshot
Model Based Inference in the Life Sciences: A Primer on Evidence
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-87458-6openalex-snapshot
Mixed effects models and extensions in ecology with R
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-011-9963-4openalex-snapshot
Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-010-9538-2openalex-snapshot
Past, present and future of wild ungulates in relation to changes in land use
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2009.09.007openalex-snapshot
Model Based Inference in the Life Sciences: A Primer on Evidence
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026openalex-snapshot
Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/s0376892997000088openalex-snapshot
A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822x.2003.00322.xopenalex-snapshot
Spatial autocorrelation and red herrings in geographical ecology
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/378926openalex-snapshot
Predicting the Geography of Species’ Invasions via Ecological Niche Modeling
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2008.0210openalex-snapshot
Spatial analysis improves species distribution modelling during range expansion
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2009.0480openalex-snapshot
Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2008.1480openalex-snapshot
Geographic range limits: achieving synthesis
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12031openalex-snapshot
On evaluating species distribution models with random background sites in place of absences when test presences disproportionately sample suitable habitat
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12007openalex-snapshot
Discrimination capacity in species distribution models depends on the representativeness of the environmental domain
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.xopenalex-snapshot
Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01000.xopenalex-snapshot
Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2005.01052.xopenalex-snapshot
The continuing challenges of testing species distribution models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2005.01310.xopenalex-snapshot
Environmental constraints in the colonization sequence of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus Linnaeus, 1758) across the Iberian Mountains, Spain
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02589.xopenalex-snapshot
Accounting for multi‐scale spatial autocorrelation improves performance of invasive species distribution modelling (iSDM)
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2907.2005.00060.xopenalex-snapshot
Expanding ranges of wild and feral deer in Great Britain
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1366-9516.2006.00302.xopenalex-snapshot
Residence time and potential range: crucial considerations in modelling plant invasions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00687.xopenalex-snapshot
The spatial spread of invasions: new developments in theory and evidence
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-822x.2005.00190.xopenalex-snapshot
A climatic stratification of the environment of Europe
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00331.xopenalex-snapshot
Can niche‐based distribution models outperform spatial interpolation?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00358.xopenalex-snapshot
AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00488.xopenalex-snapshot
The contribution of contemporary climate to ectothermic and endothermic vertebrate distributions in a glacial refuge
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00683.xopenalex-snapshot
Insights into the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as a discrimination measure in species distribution modelling
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2006.00272.xopenalex-snapshot
Assessing the potential range expansion of the exotic monk parakeet in Spain
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2006.00292.xopenalex-snapshot
Prospects for population expansion of the exotic aoudad (Ammotragus lervia; Bovidae) in the Iberian Peninsula: clues from habitat suitability modelling
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00346.xopenalex-snapshot
A comparative evaluation of presence‐only methods for modelling species distribution
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00482.xopenalex-snapshot
Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00491.xopenalex-snapshot
Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00662.xopenalex-snapshot
Assessing biogeographical relationships of ecologically related species using favourability functions: a case study on British deer
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.xopenalex-snapshot
BIOMOD – a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210x.2012.00219.xopenalex-snapshot
Using dispersal information to model the species–environment relationship of spreading non‐native species
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0007843openalex-snapshot
Alien Invasive Slider Turtle in Unpredicted Habitat: A Matter of Niche Shift or of Predictors Studied?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[2027:enfaht]2.0.co;2openalex-snapshot
ECOLOGICAL-NICHE FACTOR ANALYSIS: HOW TO COMPUTE HABITAT-SUITABILITY MAPS WITHOUT ABSENCE DATA?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1890/11-0826.1openalex-snapshot
Cross‐validation of species distribution models: removing spatial sorting bias and calibration with a null model
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1939924openalex-snapshot
Spatial Autocorrelation: Trouble or New Paradigm?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2845500openalex-snapshot
Analysing the Velocity of Animal Range Expansion
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.12.2341openalex-snapshot
Potential distribution range of invasive plant species in Spain
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.49-6266openalex-snapshot
Ecological niches and geographic distributions
What points at this work
Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3391/ai.2023.18.4.111481zenodo-depositor-declared
Models based on chronological data correctly predict the spread of freshwater aliens, and reveal a strong influence of river access, anthropogenic activities and climate regimes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3160openalex-snapshot
Validating distribution models for twelve endemic bird species of tropical dry forest in western Mexico
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.72419openalex-snapshot
Zooming In: Assessing the Transferability of SDMs From Large to Small Spatial Extents
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.22317openalex-snapshot
Dispersal limitations increase vulnerability under climate change for reptiles and amphibians in the southwestern United States
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-44611-5_5openalex-snapshot
The Macroecological Understanding of Ecological Niches
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-0131-9_2openalex-snapshot
Basic Introduction to Species Distribution Modelling
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s12065-025-01116-9openalex-snapshot
From agent-based models to Takagi–Sugeno linear differential equations (TS-LDEs): a fuzzy-logic bridge between discrete and continuous dynamics
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-443-18949-4.00008-7openalex-snapshot
Species distribution models: concepts, tools, and applications
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2015.05.008openalex-snapshot
Modelling the combined effects of land use and climatic changes: Coupling bioclimatic modelling with Markov-chain Cellular Automata in a case study in Cyprus
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.10.031openalex-snapshot
Using one vs. many, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of species distribution models with focus on conservation area networks
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.funeco.2021.101079openalex-snapshot
Where do nivicolous myxomycetes occur? – Modeling the potential worldwide distribution of Physarum albescens
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2025.100995openalex-snapshot
Climate-driven shifts in the geographic distribution of fodder trees in West Africaʼs Grazing landscapes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12282openalex-snapshot
Climate change and biological invasions: evidence, expectations, and response options
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.03470openalex-snapshot
Why less complexity produces better forecasts: an independent data evaluation of kelp habitat models
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jav.01179openalex-snapshot
Climate determinants of breeding and wintering ranges of lesser kestrels in Italy and predicted impacts of climate change
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1139/er-2016-0045openalex-snapshot
A practical overview of transferability in species distribution modeling
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-025-07117-yopenalex-snapshot
Field validation of multiple species distribution models shows variation in performance for predicting Aedes albopictus distributions at the invasion edge
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.13057/biodiv/d230506openalex-snapshot
Bioclimatic modeling for the prediction of the suitable regional geographical distribution of selected bright-spored myxomycetes in the Philippine archipelago
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0193085openalex-snapshot
Can species distribution models really predict the expansion of invasive species?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0202403openalex-snapshot
Evaluating collinearity effects on species distribution models: An approach based on virtual species simulation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217896openalex-snapshot
Improving Species Distribution Modelling of freshwater invasive species for management applications
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264660openalex-snapshot
Prediction of range expansion and estimation of dispersal routes of water deer (Hydropotes inermis) in the transboundary region between China, the Russian Far East and the Korean Peninsula
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.21425/f56221749openalex-snapshot
Biogeography: multidisciplinary approaches in space and time
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.21425/f5fbg21749openalex-snapshot
Biogeography: multidisciplinary approaches in space and time
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.21425/f5fbg43130openalex-snapshot
Integration of dispersal data into distribution modeling: what have we done and what have we learned?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.31230/osf.io/u76hfopenalex-snapshot
Why less complexity produces better forecasts: An independent data evaluation of kelp habitat models
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.33256/32.1.513openalex-snapshot
Predicted impact of climate change on the distribution of the Critically Endangered golden mantella (Mantella aurantiaca) in Madagascar
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.34626/z105-8v62openalex-snapshot
Using models and connectivity analysis to the predict the current and future patterns of invasion by Silver-wattle (Acacia dealbata Link) in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.159102openalex-snapshot
Species Distribution Modeling Techniques As A Tool In Preliminary Assessment Of Special Nature Reserve “Goč-Gvozdac”
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