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Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.06.008
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China
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Evaluating factors associated with STD infection in a study with interval‐censored event times and an unknown proportion of participants not at risk for disease
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A Bayesian MCMC approach to study transmission of influenza: application to household longitudinal data
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SARS incubation and quarantine times: when is an exposed individual known to be disease free?
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Household epidemic models with varying infection response
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Epidemic growth rate and household reproduction number in communities of households, schools and workplaces
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Stochastic epidemics in dynamic populations: quasi-stationarity and extinction
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The Final Size of an Epidemic and Its Relation to the Basic Reproduction Number
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The Final Size of a Serious Epidemic
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Pre-existence and emergence of drug resistance in a generalized model of intra-host viral dynamics
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Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models
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Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies
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Prevalence of comorbidities and its effects in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis
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Epidemic prediction and control in clustered populations
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A note on generation times in epidemic models
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Deterministic epidemic models with explicit household structure
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Reproductive numbers, epidemic spread and control in a community of households
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Some model based considerations on observing generation times for communicable diseases
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Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures. I. Definition and calculation of R0
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2015.05.007openalex-snapshot
Stochastic epidemic models featuring contact tracing with delays
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2016.01.006openalex-snapshot
Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures II: Comparisons and implications for vaccination
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s0025-5564(98)10060-3openalex-snapshot
Stochastic and deterministic models for SIS epidemics among a population partitioned into households
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30566-3openalex-snapshot
Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30627-9openalex-snapshot
COVID-19 and Italy: what next?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30129-8openalex-snapshot
Can we contain the COVID-19 outbreak with the same measures as for SARS?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-2600(20)30116-8openalex-snapshot
Are patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus at increased risk for COVID-19 infection?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30113-3openalex-snapshot
Early in the epidemic: impact of preprints on global discourse about COVID-19 transmissibility
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s2589-7500(20)30026-1openalex-snapshot
Early epidemiological analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak based on crowdsourced data: a population-level observational study
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/515018aopenalex-snapshot
Models overestimate Ebola cases
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14229-4openalex-snapshot
Systematic selection between age and household structure for models aimed at emerging epidemic predictions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/srep35839openalex-snapshot
Comparison of incubation period distribution of human infections with MERS-CoV in South Korea and Saudi Arabia
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1056/nejmoa0905498openalex-snapshot
Household Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus in the United States
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1056/nejmoa2002032openalex-snapshot
Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0810762106openalex-snapshot
The spread of awareness and its impact on epidemic outbreaks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1614595114openalex-snapshot
Spatial and temporal dynamics of superspreading events in the 2014–2015 West Africa Ebola epidemic
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa021openalex-snapshot
The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2018.0670openalex-snapshot
Estimation in emerging epidemics: biases and remedies
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12705openalex-snapshot
Coordinating the real‐time use of global influenza activity data for better public health planning
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba9757openalex-snapshot
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb3221openalex-snapshot
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb4218openalex-snapshot
The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb6936openalex-snapshot
Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b2651openalex-snapshot
Public perceptions, anxiety, and behaviour change in relation to the swine flu outbreak: cross sectional telephone survey
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1137/140956695openalex-snapshot
Epidemiological Consequences of Imperfect Vaccines for Immunizing Infections
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1214/12-aos996openalex-snapshot
Modeling left-truncated and right-censored survival data with longitudinal covariates
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177730285openalex-snapshot
On the Generalized "Birth-and-Death" Process
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006046openalex-snapshot
Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074openalex-snapshot
Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0009666openalex-snapshot
Calculation of Disease Dynamics in a Population of Households
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2533008openalex-snapshot
Empirical Estimation of a Distribution Function with Truncated and Doubly Interval-Censored Data and Its Application to AIDS Studies
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/3213811openalex-snapshot
On the asymptotic distribution of the size of a stochastic epidemic
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2471/blt.11.097949openalex-snapshot
Epidemic and intervention modelling – a scientific rationale for policy decisions? Lessons from the 2009 influenza pandemic
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020538openalex-snapshot
Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2010.7.851openalex-snapshot
Time variations in the generation time of an infectious disease: Implications for sampling to appropriately quantify transmission potential
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.7554/elife.55570openalex-snapshot
Estimated effectiveness of symptom and risk screening to prevent the spread of COVID-19

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

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Intelligent Approach to Combat COVID-19: An Insight Analysis
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Advanced Mathematical Model to Measure the Severity of Any Pandemics
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Convex-Concave fitting to successively updated data and its application to covid-19 analysis
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Real-time forecasting of the COVID 19 using fuzzy grey Markov: a different approach in decision-making
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COVID-19 in Scottish care homes: A metapopulation model of spread among residents and staff
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Are population movement restrictions containing the COVID-19 cases in Sub-Saharan Africa?
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Impact of asymptomatic infected individuals on epidemic transmission dynamics in multiplex networks with partial coupling
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Baseline accuracy of forecasting COVID-19 cases in Moscow region on a year in retrospect using basic statistical and machine learning methods
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A renewal equation model to assess roles and limitations of contact tracing for disease outbreak control
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Challenges in control of COVID-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions
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Using a household-structured branching process to analyse contact tracing in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
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Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated
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Artificial Intelligence (AI) Based Prediction of Mortality, ICU Admission and Ventilation Support Requirement for COVID-19 Patients Using 122 Clinical and Demographic Parameters
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Characterizing US contact patterns relevant to respiratory transmission from a pandemic to baseline: Analysis of a large cross-sectional survey
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Epidemiological Parameters of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK during the 2023/2024 Winter: A Cohort Study
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SEIR-Based Modelling of COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia: A Mathematical Approach to Public Health Interventions and Optimal Control Solutions
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Monte Carlo approach to model COVID-19 deaths and infections using Gompertz functions
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