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Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04067
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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Numerical Simulations of Large Earthquakes: Dynamic Rupture Propagation on Heterogeneous Faults
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Earthquake prediction
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High‐resolution image of Calaveras Fault seismicity
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Interplate quasi‐static slip off Sanriku, NE Japan, estimated from repeating earthquakes
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Stress orientations and magnitudes in the SAFOD pilot hole
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Streaks, multiplets, and holes: High‐resolution spatio‐temporal behavior of Parkfield seismicity
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Introduction to special section: Preparing for the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth
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Interaction of the San Andreas Fault Creeping Segment with Adjacent great rupture zones and earthquake recurrence at Parkfield
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1029/92jb02408openalex-snapshot
How similar were the 1934 and 1966 Parkfield Earthquakes?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1029/93jb01029openalex-snapshot
Three‐dimensional velocity structure, seismicity, and fault structure in the Parkfield Region, central California
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1029/94jb03014openalex-snapshot
New seismic gap hypothesis: Five years after
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Time‐predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1029/jb089ib05p03051openalex-snapshot
Recurrence models and Parkfield, California, earthquakes
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1029/jb089ib07p05681openalex-snapshot
Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes: Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1029/jb092ib08p07945openalex-snapshot
Detection of a locked zone at depth on the Parkfield, California, segment of the San Andreas Fault
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1029/jb094ib12p17647openalex-snapshot
Historic surface slip along the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, California
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nature00984openalex-snapshot
Testing time-predictable earthquake recurrence by direct measurement of strain accumulation and release
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nature28107openalex-snapshot
Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1060152openalex-snapshot
A Silent Slip Event on the Deeper Cascadia Subduction Interface
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1107142openalex-snapshot
Nonvolcanic Tremors Deep Beneath the San Andreas Fault
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.205.4413.1375openalex-snapshot
Earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Comparing the 1934 and 1966 Sequences
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.229.4714.619openalex-snapshot
The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.253.5020.651openalex-snapshot
Relations Among Fault Behavior, Subsurface Geology, and Three-Dimensional Velocity Models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.285.5428.718openalex-snapshot
Fault Slip Rates at Depth from Recurrence Intervals of Repeating Microearthquakes
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Effect of geologic structure and metamorphic fluids on seismic behavior of the San Andreas fault system in central and northern California
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1130/g20478.1openalex-snapshot
Six similar sequential ruptures of the San Andreas fault, Carrizo Plain, California
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1586079openalex-snapshot
USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps
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A Double-Difference Earthquake Location Algorithm: Method and Application to the Northern Hayward Fault, California
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1785/0120000096openalex-snapshot
A Simple Stick-Slip and Creep-Slip Model for Repeating Earthquakes and its Implication for Microearthquakes at Parkfield
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San Andreas Fault Zone, California: M >=5.5 Earthquake History
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0680051421openalex-snapshot
Slip along the San Andreas fault associated with the great 1857 earthquake
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0710010095openalex-snapshot
Control of rupture by fault geometry during the 1966 parkfield earthquake
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0830010001openalex-snapshot
The Parkfield prediction fallacy
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0880010117openalex-snapshot
Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited
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Equations for Estimating Horizontal Response Spectra and Peak Acceleration from Western North American Earthquakes: A Summary of Recent Work
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Preliminary Report on the 28 September 2004, M 6.0 Parkfield, California Earthquake
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.76.1.27openalex-snapshot
Preliminary Analysis of Strong-motion Recordings from the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California Earthquake
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr87192openalex-snapshot
Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction scenarios and response plans
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Response plans for volcanic hazards in the Long Valley Caldera and Mono Craters area, California
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The 1992 Sanriku-Oki, Japan, Ultra-Slow Earthquake.

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

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Entertaining Geophysics 4. The Study of Seismic Phenomena as the Process of Fortune-Telling on the Coffee Grounds. What Does the School Curriculum Say about Earthquake Energy?
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Change of apparent segmentation of the San Andreas fault around Parkfield from space geodetic observations across multiple periods
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Quantifying slip balance in the earthquake cycle: Coseismic slip model constrained by interseismic coupling
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Pore pressure sensitivities to dynamic strains: Observations in active tectonic regions
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Static Coulomb stress load on a three‐dimensional rate‐and‐state fault: Possible explanation of the anomalous delay of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake
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The 2015 M w 7.1 earthquake on the Charlie‐Gibbs transform fault: Repeating earthquakes and multimodal slip on a slow oceanic transform
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inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108369openalex-snapshot
Long-term patterns of earthquakes influenced by climate change: Insights from earthquake recurrence and stress field changes across the Korean Peninsula during interglacial periods
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.rockmb.2022.100006openalex-snapshot
Cross-fault Newton force measurement for Earthquake prediction
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2026.102000openalex-snapshot
A globally applicable framework for earthquake precursor identification using gravity gradient tensor anomalies from satellite gravimetry
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2026.115273openalex-snapshot
Seismic implications of creeping and coupled segments along the Philippine fault in Leyte from GNSS and InSAR data
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2021.106663openalex-snapshot
Spatiotemporally explicit earthquake prediction using deep neural network
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2010.04.018openalex-snapshot
Pre-seismic geomagnetic anomaly and earthquake location
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019openalex-snapshot
Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2011.09.011openalex-snapshot
Magnitude production imbalances and the present seismogenicity state of the San Andreas Fault system
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2012.06.047openalex-snapshot
Why earthquake hazard maps often fail and what to do about it
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2016.03.038openalex-snapshot
Seismicity and fault geometry of the San Andreas fault around Parkfield, California and their implications
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2016.11.026openalex-snapshot
Current microseismicity and generating faults in the Gyeongju area, southeastern Korea
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2018.01.015openalex-snapshot
Historical and recent large megathrust earthquakes in Chile
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2022.229675openalex-snapshot
Neotectonic faults in the Southern Chile intra-arc (38°S–40.5°S): Insights about their seismic potential and the link with the megathrust earthquake cycle
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2023.230191openalex-snapshot
Identifying the fracture characteristics that control deformation localization and catastrophic failure in fluid-saturated crystalline rocks in upper crustal conditions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/s0074-6142(08)00001-6openalex-snapshot
Chapter 1 Introduction
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/s0950-1401(10)04006-1openalex-snapshot
Seismicity Precursors for Active Monitoring of Earthquakes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473openalex-snapshot
The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473.001openalex-snapshot
Preface to the first edition
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473.002openalex-snapshot
Preface to the second edition
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473.003openalex-snapshot
Preface to the third edition
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473.004openalex-snapshot
Brittle fracture of rock
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473.005openalex-snapshot
Rock friction
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473.006openalex-snapshot
Mechanics of faulting
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473.007openalex-snapshot
Mechanics of earthquakes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473.008openalex-snapshot
The seismic cycle
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473.009openalex-snapshot
Seismotectonics
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473.010openalex-snapshot
Earthquake prediction and hazard analysis
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473.011openalex-snapshot
References
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473.012openalex-snapshot
Index
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/s1473550412000122openalex-snapshot
Maintenance of permeable habitable subsurface environments by earthquakes and tidal stresses
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl026744openalex-snapshot
Anomalous early aftershock decay rate of the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl026811openalex-snapshot
Reply to comment by Y. Ben‐Zion on “Material contrast does not predict earthquake rupture propagation direction”
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl028634openalex-snapshot
Annual modulation of seismicity along the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, CA
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2006jb004481openalex-snapshot
Are asperity patterns persistent? Implication from large earthquakes in Papua New Guinea
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2006jb004617openalex-snapshot
Parkfield earthquakes: Characteristic or complementary?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2006jb004793openalex-snapshot
Constraining fault constitutive behavior with slip and stress heterogeneity
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2007gl030554openalex-snapshot
Towards a universal rule on the recurrence interval scaling of repeating earthquakes?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2007jb005151openalex-snapshot
Detecting seismogenic stress evolution and constraining fault zone rheology in the San Andreas Fault following the 2004 Parkfield earthquake
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2007jb005189openalex-snapshot
Source processes of the 1978 and 2005 Miyagi‐oki, Japan, earthquakes: Repeated rupture of asperities over successive large earthquakes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2007jb005216openalex-snapshot
Dynamic modeling of the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2007jb005449openalex-snapshot
Constraining earthquake source inversions with GPS data: 1. Resolution‐based removal of artifacts
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl035590openalex-snapshot
Maximum entropy production and earthquake dynamics
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2008jb005746openalex-snapshot
Constraining earthquake source inversions with GPS data: 2. A two‐step approach to combine seismic and geodetic data sets
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2008jb005748openalex-snapshot
Postseismic deformation due to the M w 6.0 2004 Parkfield earthquake: Stress‐driven creep on a fault with spatially variable rate‐and‐state friction parameters
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2008jb006034openalex-snapshot
Complexity in earthquake sequences controlled by multiscale heterogeneity in fault fracture energy
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2008jb006049openalex-snapshot
Remote triggering of tremor along the San Andreas Fault in central California
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2008jb006062openalex-snapshot
Complex nonvolcanic tremor near Parkfield, California, triggered by the great 2004 Sumatra earthquake
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2008jb006118openalex-snapshot
Inferring the coseismic and postseismic stress changes caused by the 2004 Mw = 6 Parkfield earthquake from variations of recurrence times of microearthquakes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl039589openalex-snapshot
Possible deep fault slip preceding the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, inferred from detailed observations of tectonic tremor
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2009jb006419openalex-snapshot
Correction to “Source processes of the 1978 and 2005 Miyagi‐oki, Japan, earthquakes: Repeated rupture of asperities over successive large earthquakes”
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2009jb006584openalex-snapshot
Discrimination of a preparatory stage leading to M7 characteristic earthquakes off Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2009jb006599openalex-snapshot
Coseismic and postseismic slip from the 2003 San Simeon earthquake and their effects on backthrust slip and the 2004 Parkfield earthquake
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2009jb006683openalex-snapshot
The 2007 M5.4 Alum Rock, California, earthquake: Implications for future earthquakes on the central and southern Calaveras Fault
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl043099openalex-snapshot
Partitioned postseismic deformation associated with the 2009 Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake surface rupture measured using a terrestrial laser scanner
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl043672openalex-snapshot
Precise tremor source locations and amplitude variations along the lower‐crustal central San Andreas Fault
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl046129openalex-snapshot
Evidence of transient increases of fluid pressure in SAFOD phase III cores
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2010jb007545openalex-snapshot
Automated fault model discretization for inversions for coseismic slip distributions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2010jb007626openalex-snapshot
Spatiotemporal correlations of aftershock sequences
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2010jb008073openalex-snapshot
Evidence for postseismic deformation of the lower crust following the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield earthquake
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl047303openalex-snapshot
Rupture directivity of microearthquake sequences near Parkfield, California
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl047863openalex-snapshot
Tremor reveals stress shadowing, deep postseismic creep, and depth-dependent slip recurrence on the lower-crustal San Andreas fault near Parkfield
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2011gm001071openalex-snapshot
Earthquakes: Complexity and Extreme Events
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2012jb009675openalex-snapshot
Rupture directivity of small earthquakes at Parkfield
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078316openalex-snapshot
Bilinearity in the Gutenberg‐Richter Relation Based on M L for Magnitudes Above and Below 2, From Systematic Magnitude Assessments in Parkfield (California)
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2018jb016472openalex-snapshot
Modeling High Stress Drops, Scaling, Interaction, and Irregularity of Repeating Earthquake Sequences Near Parkfield
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084480openalex-snapshot
Across‐Fault Velocity Gradients and Slip Behavior of the San Andreas Fault Near Parkfield
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086240openalex-snapshot
Real‐Time Earthquake Location Based on the Kalman Filter Formulation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2019jb018975openalex-snapshot
Acoustic Energy Release During the Laboratory Seismic Cycle: Insights on Laboratory Earthquake Precursors and Prediction
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2019jb019076openalex-snapshot
Detailed Investigation of the Foreshock Sequence of the 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor‐Cucapah Earthquake
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2019jb019328openalex-snapshot
Rheological Transitions Facilitate Fault‐Spanning Ruptures on Seismically Active and Creeping Faults
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl086986openalex-snapshot
Preseismic Fault Creep and Elastic Wave Amplitude Precursors Scale With Lab Earthquake Magnitude for the Continuum of Tectonic Failure Modes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2020jb020052openalex-snapshot
The Relationship Between Seismic and Aseismic Slip on the Philippine Fault on Leyte Island: Bayesian Modeling of Fault Slip and Geothermal Subsidence
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2020jb020577openalex-snapshot
A Geology and Geodesy Based Model of Dynamic Earthquake Rupture on the Rodgers Creek‐Hayward‐Calaveras Fault System, California
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2020jb021588openalex-snapshot
Machine Learning Predicts the Timing and Shear Stress Evolution of Lab Earthquakes Using Active Seismic Monitoring of Fault Zone Processes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl092951openalex-snapshot
Learning the Low Frequency Earthquake Activity on the Central San Andreas Fault
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021jb022002openalex-snapshot
Defining the Coseismic Phase of the Crustal Deformation Cycle With Seismogeodesy
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021jb022175openalex-snapshot
Frequency‐Magnitude Statistics of Laboratory Foreshocks Vary With Shear Velocity, Fault Slip Rate, and Shear Stress
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021jb023190openalex-snapshot
High‐Precision Earthquake Location Using Source‐Specific Station Terms and Inter‐Event Waveform Similarity
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021jb023897openalex-snapshot
Afterslip Moment Scaling and Variability From a Global Compilation of Estimates
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021tc006740openalex-snapshot
Strain Partitioning and Interseismic Fault Behavior Along the Caribbean‐South American Transform Plate Boundary
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2022jb024326openalex-snapshot
Precursory Off‐Fault Deformation in Restraining and Releasing Step Overs: Insights From Discrete Element Method Models
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2022jb024918openalex-snapshot
Seismicity, Fault Architecture, and Slip Mode of the Westernmost Gofar Transform Fault
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl103659openalex-snapshot
Oblique Blind Faulting Underneath the Luzon Volcanic Arc During the 2022 Mw 7.0 Abra Earthquake, the Philippines
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb028411openalex-snapshot
Intermittent Criticality Multi‐Scale Processes Leading to Large Slip Events on Rough Laboratory Faults
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024jb029410openalex-snapshot
The Linked Complexity of Coseismic and Postseismic Faulting Revealed by Seismo‐Geodetic Dynamic Inversion of the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024jb029918openalex-snapshot
Adjoint‐State Reflection Traveltime Tomography for Velocity and Interface Inversion With Its Application in Central California Near Parkfield
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2025av001649openalex-snapshot
Back‐Propagating Earthquakes on Simple Faults
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