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Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts: A case study of Ebola in the Western Area Region of Sierra Leone, 2014–15
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What this work says
Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.
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Probabilistic forecasting in infectious disease epidemiology: the 13th Armitage lecture
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Real-time forecasting of infectious disease dynamics with a stochastic semi-mechanistic model
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The RAPIDD ebola forecasting challenge: Synthesis and lessons learnt
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Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts
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Evaluation of Ebola spreading in West Africa and decision of optimal medicine delivery strategies based on mathematical models
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Real-time dynamic modelling for the design of a cluster-randomized phase 3 Ebola vaccine trial in Sierra Leone
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Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts
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Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis
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Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis
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Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
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On the predictability of infectious disease outbreaks
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Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico
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Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections
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Epidemic Forecasting is Messier Than Weather Forecasting: The Role of Human Behavior and Internet Data Streams in Epidemic Forecast
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Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks
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The impact of control strategies and behavioural changes on the elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberia
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Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness
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Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
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Predictive Model Assessment for Count Data
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Weather Forecasting with Ensemble Methods
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Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health
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Estimating the probability of demonstrating vaccine efficacy in the declining Ebola epidemic: a Bayesian modelling approach
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Probabilistic Forecasting
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A Scoring System for Probability Forecasts of Ranked Categories
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Results from the centers for disease control and prevention’s predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge
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Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa: lessons and the way forward
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.3c3477556808e44cf41d2511b21dc29fopenalex-snapshot
Projected Treatment Capacity Needs in Sierra Leone
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.406ae55e83ec0b5193e30856b9235ed2openalex-snapshot
Temporal Changes in Ebola Transmission in Sierra Leone and Implications for Control Requirements: a Real-time Modelling Study
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Early Epidemic Dynamics of the West African 2014 Ebola Outbreak: Estimates Derived with a Simple Two-Parameter Model
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Modeling the 2014 Ebola Virus Epidemic 2013 Agent-Based Simulations, Temporal Analysis and Future Predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone
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Temporal Variations in the Effective Reproduction Number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola Outbreak
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Forecasting Peaks of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics
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Modeling the Impact of Interventions on an Epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia
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Ebola Cases and Health System Demand in Liberia
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Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong
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Individual versus superensemble forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks in the United States
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Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks
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Predicting the Epidemic Sizes of Influenza A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B: A Statistical Method
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Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models
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Present Position and Potential Developments: Some Personal Views: Statistical Theory: The Prequential Approach
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Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2111.150949openalex-snapshot
Ebola in West Africa—CDC’s Role in Epidemic Detection, Control, and Prevention
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R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing
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SSM: Inference for time series analysis with State Space Models
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Author response: Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic
What points at this work
Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100354openalex-snapshot
Real-time predictions of the 2018–2019 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo using Hawkes point process models
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1101/461285openalex-snapshot
Real-time projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1101/465062openalex-snapshot
A metapopulation model for the 2018 Ebola virus disease outbreak in Equateur province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-022-02277-5openalex-snapshot
The impact of local vaccine coverage and recent incidence on measles transmission in France between 2009 and 2018
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007512openalex-snapshot
Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019
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Interpretable, non-mechanistic forecasting using empirical dynamic modeling and interactive visualization
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