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Simple model for Covid-19 epidemics – back-casting in China and forecasting in the US

https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.31.20049486

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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.2648openalex-snapshot

Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China

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Non-linear Disease Progress Curves

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The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health — The latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050openalex-snapshot

Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2020.100048openalex-snapshot

Modeling the Epidemic Trend of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in China

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30185-9openalex-snapshot

A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern

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Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1056/nejmoa2001316openalex-snapshot

Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/00036811.2020.1732357openalex-snapshot

A time delay dynamic system with external source for the local outbreak of 2019-nCoV

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/37.3-4.193openalex-snapshot

A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.25.919688openalex-snapshot

MRCA time and epidemic dynamics of the 2019 novel coronavirus

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787openalex-snapshot

Time-varying transmission dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020461openalex-snapshot

Forecasting the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemics using a simple (simplistic) model

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033498openalex-snapshot

Modelling the Situation of COVID-19 and Effects of Different Containment Strategies in China with Dynamic Differential Equations and Parameters Estimation

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044289openalex-snapshot

Forecasting the Worldwide Spread of COVID-19 based on Logistic Model and SEIR Model

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1960.tb00379.xopenalex-snapshot

The Logistic Process: Tables of the Stochastic Epidemic Curve and Applications

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.phyto.38.1.71openalex-snapshot

Epidemiology: A Science of Patterns

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.publhealth.25.102802.124353openalex-snapshot

Modeling Infection Transmission

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The cross-cutting contribution of the end of neglected tropical diseases to the sustainable development goals

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A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

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Fractal Kinetics of COVID-19 Pandemic

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Epidemic Crisis in East Pakistan April-July, 1958

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Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.25561/77150openalex-snapshot

Report 2: Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.3.2000044openalex-snapshot

Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2020.00171openalex-snapshot

Evaluation of the Secondary Transmission Pattern and Epidemic Prediction of COVID-19 in the Four Metropolitan Areas of China

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020330openalex-snapshot

The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020388openalex-snapshot

Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020488openalex-snapshot

Initial Cluster of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infections in Wuhan, China Is Consistent with Substantial Human-to-Human Transmission

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020538openalex-snapshot

Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020596openalex-snapshot

Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13–23, 2020

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.9781/ijimai.2020.02.002openalex-snapshot

Finding an Accurate Early Forecasting Model from Small Dataset: A Case of 2019-nCoV Novel Coronavirus Outbreak.

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/adts.202000132openalex-snapshot

Suppression of Groups Intermingling as an Appealing Option for Flattening and Delaying the Epidemiological Curve While Allowing Economic and Social Life at a Bearable Level during the COVID‐19 Pandemic

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/adts.202000225openalex-snapshot

What Can We Learn from the Time Evolution of COVID‐19 Epidemic in Slovenia?

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-021-06707-6openalex-snapshot

Modeling and prediction of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on the SINDy-LM method

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.05.20188755openalex-snapshot

Quantifying Inaccuracies in Modeling COVID-19 Pandemic within a Continuous Time Picture

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4849928openalex-snapshot

Global COVID-19 Epidemic Prediction and Analysis Based on Improved Dynamic Transmission Rate Model with Neural Networks

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