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Cohort-based approach to understanding the roles of generation and serial intervals in shaping epidemiological dynamics

https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.04.20122713

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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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Association of Public Health Interventions With the Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Wuhan, China

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Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection

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Estimating Initial Epidemic Growth Rates

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A practical generation-interval-based approach to inferring the strength of epidemics from their speed

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Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks

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The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak

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Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections

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Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea

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The correlation between infectivity and incubation period of measles, estimated from households with two cases

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An integral equation model for the control of a smallpox outbreak

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A note on generation times in epidemic models

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Generation interval contraction and epidemic data analysis

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Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

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Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study

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Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19

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Modeling Post-death Transmission of Ebola: Challenges for Inference and Opportunities for Control

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Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

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Serial interval in determining the estimation of reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak

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Infectious Diseases of Humans

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Estimating the Generation Interval of Influenza A (H1N1) in a Range of Social Settings

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Estimation in emerging epidemics: biases and remedies

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Inferring generation-interval distributions from contact-tracing data

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Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak

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Modelling strategies for minimizing the impact of an imported exotic infection

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How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.2026openalex-snapshot

Intrinsic and realized generation intervals in infectious-disease transmission

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The concept ofRoin epidemic theory

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Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings

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Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing

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Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions

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Equivalence of the Erlang-Distributed SEIR Epidemic Model and the Renewal Equation

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Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia

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Transmission Dynamics and Prospects for the Elimination of Canine Rabies

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Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt

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Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic

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Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 — Singapore, January 23–March 16, 2020

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Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases

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Potential Role of Social Distancing in Mitigating Spread of Coronavirus Disease, South Korea

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Social and News Media Enable Estimation of Epidemiological Patterns Early in the 2010 Haitian Cholera Outbreak

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Evidence for transmission of COVID-19 prior to symptom onset

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

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The impact of travel and timing in eliminating COVID-19

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Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic

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The Timing of COVID-19 Transmission

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008409openalex-snapshot

Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt

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Eliminating COVID-19: The Impact of Travel and Timing

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A quantitative compendium of COVID-19 epidemiology

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