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Persistent heterogeneity not short-term overdispersion determines herd immunity to COVID-19

https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.26.20162420
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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Robust Modeling of Human Contact Networks Across Different Scales and Proximity-Sensing Techniques
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The size of epidemics in populations with heterogeneous susceptibility
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On representing network heterogeneities in the incidence rate of simple epidemic models
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Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts
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Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.1464openalex-snapshot
A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection fatality rates
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.07.026openalex-snapshot
Network theory and SARS: predicting outbreak diversity
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.11.033openalex-snapshot
What's in a crowd? Analysis of face-to-face behavioral networks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.06.012openalex-snapshot
The impact of past epidemics on future disease dynamics
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111063openalex-snapshot
Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2006.01.007openalex-snapshot
Semi-empirical power-law scaling of new infection rate to model epidemic dynamics with inhomogeneous mixing
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2008.07.010openalex-snapshot
On the spread of epidemics in a closed heterogeneous population
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2006.01.021openalex-snapshot
Super-spreaders and the rate of transmission of the SARS virus
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/s0001867800014622openalex-snapshot
Deterministic and stochastic epidemics with several kinds of susceptibles
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/438293aopenalex-snapshot
Dimensions of superspreading
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02541openalex-snapshot
Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04153openalex-snapshot
Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007868117openalex-snapshot
The turning point and end of an expanding epidemic cannot be precisely forecast
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1088/0034-4885/77/2/026602openalex-snapshot
Dynamics of infectious diseases
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2005.0051openalex-snapshot
Networks and epidemic models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2007.1100openalex-snapshot
When individual behaviour matters: homogeneous and network models in epidemiology
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2012.0578openalex-snapshot
Inferring population-level contact heterogeneity from common epidemic data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0393openalex-snapshot
Beyond R 0: heterogeneity in secondary infections and probabilistic epidemic forecasting
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1927.0118openalex-snapshot
A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3636openalex-snapshot
Network frailty and the geometry of herd immunity
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.1037openalex-snapshot
Social encounter networks: characterizing Great Britain
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.19.20104596openalex-snapshot
Susceptibility-adjusted herd immunity threshold model and potential R 0 distribution fitting the observed Covid-19 data in Stockholm
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.05.20123141openalex-snapshot
Heterogeneity is essential for contact tracing
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762openalex-snapshot
Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.65.055103openalex-snapshot
Halting viruses in scale-free networks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.66.016128openalex-snapshot
Spread of epidemic disease on networks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.86.3200openalex-snapshot
Epidemic Spreading in Scale-Free Networks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevx.10.041033openalex-snapshot
Modeling COVID-19 Dynamics in Illinois under Nonpharmaceutical Interventions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1103/revmodphys.87.925openalex-snapshot
Epidemic processes in complex networks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1061076openalex-snapshot
How Viruses Spread Among Computers and People
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc6810openalex-snapshot
A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e20020122openalex-snapshot
Epidemic outbreaks in complex heterogeneous networks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15842.3openalex-snapshot
Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside China
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0000758openalex-snapshot
Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvcm4gk0openalex-snapshot
Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1002.030732openalex-snapshot
Superspreading SARS Events, Beijing, 2003
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15112369openalex-snapshot
Agent-Based Modeling for Super-Spreading Events: A Case Study of MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in the Republic of Korea

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystems.2020.104241openalex-snapshot
Virions and respiratory droplets in air: Diffusion, drift, and contact with the epithelium
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.102005openalex-snapshot
Correlation of the rise and fall in COVID-19 cases with the social isolation index and early outpatient treatment with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine in the state of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil: A retrospective analysis
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2020.12.003openalex-snapshot
What the reproductive number R0 can and cannot tell us about COVID-19 dynamics
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90666-wopenalex-snapshot
Superspreading of airborne pathogens in a heterogeneous world
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91950-5openalex-snapshot
Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/abdfd1openalex-snapshot
Heterogeneity and superspreading effect on herd immunity
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/ac3415openalex-snapshot
Pandemic spread in communities via random graphs
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.25.20182162openalex-snapshot
Optimising social mixing strategies to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 in six European countries: a mathematical modelling study
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.01.20242263openalex-snapshot
A Novel Model for Simulating COVID-19 Dynamics Through Layered Infection States that Integrate Concepts from Epidemiology, Biophysics and Medicine: SEI 3 R 2 S-Nrec
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.126.118301openalex-snapshot
COVID-19 Superspreading Suggests Mitigation by Social Network Modulation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1109/tnse.2021.3075222openalex-snapshot
Age-Stratified COVID-19 Spread Analysis and Vaccination: A Multitype Random Network Approach
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.1openalex-snapshot
Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.7554/elife.66601openalex-snapshot
Modeling the impact of racial and ethnic disparities on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics
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