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Matching the forecast horizon with the relevant spatial and temporal processes and data sources

https://doi.org/10.1101/807057
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1589openalex-snapshot
Prediction in ecology: a first‐principles framework
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1370openalex-snapshot
A comprehensive evaluation of predictive performance of 33 species distribution models at species and community levels
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1643openalex-snapshot
An integrated data model to estimate spatiotemporal occupancy, abundance, and colonization dynamics
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2191openalex-snapshot
The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/sta4.160openalex-snapshot
An ensemble quadratic echo state network for non‐linear spatio‐temporal forecasting
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511623387openalex-snapshot
Species Diversity in Space and Time
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09670openalex-snapshot
Climate change and evolutionary adaptation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nature24287openalex-snapshot
The dynamics of molecular evolution over 60,000 generations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1220228110openalex-snapshot
Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710231115openalex-snapshot
Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2011.2367openalex-snapshot
On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12482openalex-snapshot
REVIEW: Predictive ecology in a changing world
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01294openalex-snapshot
Ecological niche models of mammalian glacial refugia show consistent bias
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12763openalex-snapshot
When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12642openalex-snapshot
Precipitation and winter temperature predict long‐term range‐scale abundance changes in Western North American birds
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13274openalex-snapshot
The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13900openalex-snapshot
Multi‐model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi‐arid shrub
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13976openalex-snapshot
Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14593openalex-snapshot
Extreme heterogeneity of population response to climatic variation and the limits of prediction
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12239openalex-snapshot
Environmental niche modelling fails to predict L ast G lacial M aximum refugia: niche shifts, microrefugia or incorrect palaeoclimate estimates?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12666openalex-snapshot
Joint species distribution modelling for spatio‐temporal occurrence and ordinal abundance data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02635.xopenalex-snapshot
No‐analog climates and shifting realized niches during the late quaternary: implications for 21st‐century predictions by species distribution models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2006.01145.xopenalex-snapshot
The Park Grass Experiment 1856–2006: its contribution to ecology
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2014.00916.xopenalex-snapshot
Complexity is costly: a meta‐analysis of parametric and non‐parametric methods for short‐term population forecasting
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.03726openalex-snapshot
The priority of prediction in ecological understanding
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.06401openalex-snapshot
The cost of complexity in forecasts of population abundances is reduced but not eliminated by borrowing information across space using a hierarchical approach
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.293.5530.657openalex-snapshot
Ecological Forecasts: An Emerging Imperative
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159openalex-snapshot
Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[1382:hbmfpt]2.0.co;2openalex-snapshot
HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN MODELS FOR PREDICTING THE SPREAD OF ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1890/070037openalex-snapshot
Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1890/10-0780.1openalex-snapshot
Climate influences the demography of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1941447openalex-snapshot
The Problem of Pattern and Scale in Ecology: The Robert H. MacArthur Award Lecture
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1941874openalex-snapshot
Long‐Term Forage Production of North American Shortgrass Steppe
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1943158openalex-snapshot
Primary Production of the Central Grassland Region of the United States
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4278openalex-snapshot
Forecasting biodiversity in breeding birds using best practices

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biaf031openalex-snapshot
Spatial climate analogs in climate change research, impact assessment, and decision-making
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.64898/2026.08.19.745747openalex-snapshot
Space-for-time substitution reveals partial transferability of marine biodiversity-temperature relationships
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