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Temperature‐driven harvest decisions amplify US winter wheat loss under climate warming

https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15427
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States
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Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modelling
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Effects of global irrigation on the near-surface climate
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0308-521x(90)90070-7openalex-snapshot
A wheat grazing systems model for the US Southern Plains: Part II—Economic analysis of grazing management decisions under weather uncertainty
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.01.001openalex-snapshot
Earlier winter wheat heading dates and warmer spring in the U.S. Great Plains
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.09.003openalex-snapshot
Satellite detection of earlier wheat sowing in India and implications for yield trends
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2014.01.002openalex-snapshot
Generating global crop distribution maps: From census to grid
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.12.014openalex-snapshot
Meteorological limits to winter wheat productivity in the U.S. southern Great Plains
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2014.11.003openalex-snapshot
How do weather and climate influence cropping area and intensity?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.06.014openalex-snapshot
Drivers of cropland abandonment in mountainous areas: A household decision model on farming scale in Southwest China
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/s1068280500010133openalex-snapshot
Land Abandonment in an Agricultural Frontier After a Plant Invasion: The Case of Bracken Fern in Southern Yucatán, Mexico
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1029/2003jd003823openalex-snapshot
The multi‐institution North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS): Utilizing multiple GCIP products and partners in a continental distributed hydrological modeling system
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02101openalex-snapshot
Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16467openalex-snapshot
Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1832openalex-snapshot
The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2153openalex-snapshot
A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2470openalex-snapshot
Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2837openalex-snapshot
Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2934openalex-snapshot
Cropping frequency and area response to climate variability can exceed yield response
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13931openalex-snapshot
Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2openalex-snapshot
Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12176-8openalex-snapshot
Australian vegetated coastal ecosystems as global hotspots for climate change mitigation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12183-9openalex-snapshot
The role of irrigation in changing wheat yields and heat sensitivity in India
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15076-4openalex-snapshot
Climate adaptation by crop migration
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906865106openalex-snapshot
Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1415181112openalex-snapshot
Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044003openalex-snapshot
Cropland expansion outpaces agricultural and biofuel policies in the United States
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014009openalex-snapshot
Subfield profitability analysis reveals an economic case for cropland diversification
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044041openalex-snapshot
Increasing global crop harvest frequency: recent trends and future directions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6446openalex-snapshot
Recent grassland losses are concentrated around U.S. ethanol refineries
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab63bopenalex-snapshot
Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aaq055openalex-snapshot
Investment and Abandonment Behavior of Rural Households: An Empirical Investigation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13065openalex-snapshot
Responses of wheat and rice to factorial combinations of ambient and elevated CO 2 and temperature in FACE experiments
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14034openalex-snapshot
Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14632openalex-snapshot
Dissecting the nonlinear response of maize yield to high temperature stress with model‐data integration
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00551.xopenalex-snapshot
Crop planting dates: an analysis of global patterns
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700263openalex-snapshot
Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat2380openalex-snapshot
Amplified warming of droughts in southern United States in observations and model simulations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1114722openalex-snapshot
Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO 2 Concentrations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1152339openalex-snapshot
Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0107522openalex-snapshot
Global Agricultural Land Resources – A High Resolution Suitability Evaluation and Its Perspectives until 2100 under Climate Change Conditions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.15232/s1080-7446(15)31096-2openalex-snapshot
Timing of Grazing Termination in Dual-Purpose Winter Wheat Enterprises
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.9846openalex-snapshot
Effects of Insurance on Farmer Crop Abandonment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy8060096openalex-snapshot
Long-Term Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Seasonal Irrigation Amount, Evapotranspiration, Yield, and Water Productivity under Semiarid Climate

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4668680openalex-extracted
Compensation Effect of Winter Wheat Supplementary Irrigation on Crop-Soil System Under Warming Condition
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.70550openalex-snapshot
Late sowing mitigates winter wheat yield loss under seasonal warming by enhancing photothermal efficiency
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70524openalex-snapshot
Long‐Term Analysis of Winter Wheat Yield and Climatic Influences in Ukraine
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s44378-026-00321-xopenalex-snapshot
Spatial variation of soil physicochemical properties as influenced by land use systems in Southwest Nigeria
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110452openalex-snapshot
Rice yield stability and its determinants across different rice-cropping systems in China
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103522openalex-snapshot
Historical and projected impacts of climate change and technology on soybean yield in China
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2024.103905openalex-snapshot
Adapting crop land-use in line with a changing climate improves productivity, prosperity and reduces greenhouse gas emissions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2024.108778openalex-snapshot
Compensatory effect of supplementary irrigation on winter wheat under warming conditions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101249openalex-snapshot
Research trends and gaps in climate change impacts and adaptation potentials in major crops
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2024.109554openalex-snapshot
Identifying the key meteorological factors to marketable tuber rate of potato: A 5-year field experiment in North China
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112874openalex-snapshot
Assessing the adaptability of maize phenology to climate change: The role of anthropogenic-management practices
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jia.2025.04.038openalex-snapshot
Quantifying the contribution of triple compound extreme events to global yield loss of major staple crops from 1982 to 2016
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2023.112849openalex-snapshot
An automatic wheat ear counting model based on the minimum area intersection ratio algorithm and transfer learning
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101464openalex-snapshot
Potential expansion of wheat planting areas driven by climate warming offsets yield losses and enhances global production
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef005172openalex-snapshot
Reduced Crop Yield Stability Is More Likely to Be Associated With Heat Than With Moisture Extremes in the US Midwest
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef005557openalex-snapshot
Drought and Extreme Heat Reduce Wheat and Maize Production in the United States by Lowering Both Crop Yields and Harvestable Fraction
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34947-6openalex-snapshot
U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01492-5openalex-snapshot
Warming reduces global agricultural production by decreasing cropping frequency and yields
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-03867-zopenalex-snapshot
Mapping 10-m harvested area in the major winter wheat-producing regions of China from 2018 to 2022
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3590openalex-snapshot
Divergent effects of climate factors on yield and area in Sub-Saharan Africa’s maize production
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/jee/toae246openalex-snapshot
Agroecological importance of smooth brome in managing wheat stem sawfly (Hymenoptera: Cephidae) via associated braconid parasitoids
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70349openalex-snapshot
Extreme Dry‐Heat Climate Impacts on Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensity in Wheat Production: Insights and Mitigation Strategies
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/ppl.70459openalex-snapshot
Performance of the Methods Used to Reflect the High‐Temperature Stress in Crops
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2025.1614204openalex-snapshot
Spatial patterns and key driving factors of wheat harvest index under irrigation and rainfed conditions in arid regions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14020232openalex-snapshot
Climate Change Effects on Texas Dryland Winter Wheat Yields
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-465-2026openalex-snapshot
CN_Wheat10: a 10 m resolution dataset of spring and winter wheat distribution in China (2018–2024) derived from time-series remote sensing
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