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Predicting species and community responses to global change using structured expert judgement: An Australian mountain ecosystems case study
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What this work says
Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.
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Improving expert forecasts in reliability: Application and evidence for structured elicitation protocols
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Climate change vulnerability assessment of species
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Dieback and expansions: species-specific responses during 20 years of amplified warming in the high Alps
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Strong microsite control of seedling recruitment in tundra
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Modeling rates of life form cover change in burned and unburned alpine heathland subject to experimental warming
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Winter climate change in alpine tundra: plant responses to changes in snow depth and snowmelt timing
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Alpine plant species have limited capacity for long-distance seed dispersal
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Response of rare alpine plant species to climate change in the Ukrainian Carpathians
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2014.11.009openalex-snapshot
Postattack deimatic display in the mountain katydid, Acripeza reticulata
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The role of expert opinion in environmental modelling
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I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement
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Commonness, population depletion and conservation biology
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Where and When do Species Interactions Set Range Limits?
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Alpine, Sub-alpine and Sub-Antarctic Vegetation of Australia
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Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems
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Inference by Eye: Confidence Intervals and How to Read Pictures of Data.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121openalex-snapshot
Extinction risk from climate change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1514openalex-snapshot
Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15399openalex-snapshot
A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0005-6openalex-snapshot
Accelerated increase in plant species richness on mountain summits is linked to warming
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-13245-yopenalex-snapshot
Influence of adaptive capacity on the outcome of climate change vulnerability assessment
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Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-44483-xopenalex-snapshot
Safety margins and adaptive capacity of vegetation to climate change
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Dominant species maintain ecosystem function with non‐random species loss
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Experimental warming and long-term vegetation dynamics in an alpine heathland
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Environment and Floristics of Ten Australian Alpine Vegetation Formations
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Reptiles on the brink: identifying the Australian terrestrial snake and lizard species most at risk of extinction
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Partitioning mortality into growth-dependent and growth-independent hazards across 203 tropical tree species
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Are Species’ Range Limits Simply Niche Limits Writ Large? A Review of Transplant Experiments beyond the Range
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtr010openalex-snapshot
Mortality of Australian alpine grasses (Poa spp.) after drought: species differences and ecological patterns
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2010.0612openalex-snapshot
Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2012.0055openalex-snapshot
Specificity is rarely absolute in coral–algal symbiosis: implications for coral response to climate change
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Partitioning net interactions among plants along altitudinal gradients to study community responses to climate change
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Priority threat management of non‐native plants to maintain ecosystem integrity across heterogeneous landscapes
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Mass ratio effects underlie ecosystem responses to environmental change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12857openalex-snapshot
A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12266openalex-snapshot
An I nternational U nion for the C onservation of N ature R ed L ist ecosystems risk assessment for alpine snow patch herbfields, S outh‐ E astern A ustralia
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12594openalex-snapshot
Flammability dynamics in the Australian Alps
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12674openalex-snapshot
Impacts of recent climate change on terrestrial flora and fauna: Some emerging Australian examples
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12838openalex-snapshot
Arthropod community composition along snowmelt gradients in snowbeds in the Snowy Mountains of south‐eastern Australia
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12369openalex-snapshot
Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13727openalex-snapshot
Ecological responses to variation in seasonal snow cover
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12400openalex-snapshot
Use of expert knowledge to elicit population trends for the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus)
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01490openalex-snapshot
Demography as the basis for understanding and predicting range dynamics
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13348openalex-snapshot
Forecasting species range dynamics with process‐explicit models: matching methods to applications
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13614openalex-snapshot
Climatic warming strengthens a positive feedback between alpine shrubs and fire
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13976openalex-snapshot
Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14987openalex-snapshot
Causes and consequences of eastern Australia's 2019–20 season of mega‐fires
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12774openalex-snapshot
Expanding, shifting and shrinking: The impact of global warming on species’ elevational distributions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12865openalex-snapshot
Elevational rear edges shifted at least as much as leading edges over the last century
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Upper thermal limits in terrestrial ectotherms: how constrained are they?
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Signals of range expansions and contractions of vascular plants in the high Alps: observations (1994–2004) at the GLORIA * master site Schrankogel, Tyrol, Austria
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02614.xopenalex-snapshot
Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02784.xopenalex-snapshot
The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.xopenalex-snapshot
Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00824.xopenalex-snapshot
Changes to the elevational limits and extent of species ranges associated with climate change
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Hibernation in the mountain pygmy possum Burramys parvus (Marsupialia)
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Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of expert predictions under uncertainty: predicting the outcomes of ecological research
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01676.xopenalex-snapshot
Classification of Climate‐Change‐Induced Stresses on Biological Diversity
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01806.xopenalex-snapshot
Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01337.xopenalex-snapshot
Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06279.xopenalex-snapshot
Going against the flow: potential mechanisms for unexpected downslope range shifts in a warming climate
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-263x.2011.00165.xopenalex-snapshot
Redefining expertise and improving ecological judgment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210x.2012.00254.xopenalex-snapshot
Improving visual estimation through active feedback
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/jvs.12450openalex-snapshot
Species origin affects the rate of response to inter‐annual growing season precipitation and nutrient addition in four Australian native grasslands
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/jvs.12566openalex-snapshot
All species are important, but some species are more important than others
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.12182openalex-snapshot
How will biotic interactions influence climate change–induced range shifts?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12992openalex-snapshot
The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13725openalex-snapshot
What is a Good Calibration Question?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1156831openalex-snapshot
A Significant Upward Shift in Plant Species Optimum Elevation During the 20th Century
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Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.327.7417.741openalex-snapshot
Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245openalex-snapshot
Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022998openalex-snapshot
Expert Status and Performance
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0065427openalex-snapshot
Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0132103openalex-snapshot
Inconsistent Range Shifts within Species Highlight Idiosyncratic Responses to Climate Warming
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2003)035[0248:ceoapb]2.0.co;2openalex-snapshot
Climate-Change Effects on Alpine Plant Biodiversity: A New Zealand Perspective on Quantifying the Threat
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1657/1938-4246-45.1.107openalex-snapshot
Australian Snowpack Disappearing Under the Influence of Global Warming and Solar Activity
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1657/aaar0014-083openalex-snapshot
Modeling the Thermal Zones and Biodiversity on the High Mountains of Meganesia: The Importance of Local Differences
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1890/07-1886.1openalex-snapshot
Elicitation by design in ecology: using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1890/08-0823.1openalex-snapshot
Projected climate‐induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3389/fnbeh.2016.00077openalex-snapshot
The Australian Bogong Moth Agrotis infusa: A Long-Distance Nocturnal Navigator
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3732/ajb.1200469openalex-snapshot
Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18167309openalex-snapshot
Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226602158.001.0001openalex-snapshot
Discerning Experts
What points at this work
Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.
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Life on the Edge: Considering Ecotonal Habitat for the Conservation of Alpine Reptile Communities
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Non-native land planarians (Platyhelminthes, Tricladida, Geoplanidae) in Belgium: A review and risk assessment
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An Integrated Multi‐Scale Approach to Habitat Modelling and Conservation for a Threatened Marsupial in a Dynamic and Fire‐Prone Landscape
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Temporal dynamics in alpine snowpatch plants along a snowmelt gradient explained by functional traits and strategies
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Uncertainty and risk of pruned distributional ranges induced by climate shifts for alpine species: a case study for 79 Kobresia species in China
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Isolated on sky islands: genetic diversity and population structure of an endangered mountain lizard
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A review of factors controlling Southern Hemisphere treelines and the implications of climate change on future treeline dynamics
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Animal population decline and recovery after severe fire: Relating ecological and life history traits with expert estimates of population impacts from the Australian 2019-20 megafires
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Quantifying taxon-specific habitat connectivity requirements of urban wildlife using structured expert judgement
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A weight-of-evidence system for integrating monitoring and environmental indicators to guide biological conservation and resource management of native taxa
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Life on the edge: Considering ecotonal habitat for the conservation of alpine reptile metacommunities
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtherbio.2023.103538openalex-snapshot
The impact of elevated aestivation temperatures on the behaviour of bogong moths (Agrotis infusa)
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Predicting potential climate-driven changes in activity time for the critically endangered Kaputar rock skink (Egernia roomi)
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106625openalex-snapshot
Identification and analysis of transitional zone patterns along urban-rural-natural landscape gradients: An application to China’s southwest mountains
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Using extension experts to predict future landholder adoption of grazing management practices in the Great Barrier Reef catchments
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844openalex-snapshot
Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
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A systematic review of assessing climate change risks on species and ecosystems: bibliometric overview, concepts, approaches, and trends
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Early-melting snowpatch plant communities are transitioning into novel states
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Scenarios for ecosystems in the year 2100
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Phylogenetics of the skyhoppers (Kosciuscola) of the Australian Alps: evolutionary and conservation implications
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Corrigendum to : Phylogenetics of the skyhoppers ( Kosciuscola ) of the Australian Alps: evolutionary and conservation implications
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2024.2429864openalex-snapshot
Long-term alpine summit vegetation cover change: Divergent trajectories driven by climate warming and fire
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.14017openalex-snapshot
IDEAcology: An interface to streamline and facilitate efficient, rigorous expert elicitation in ecology
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Risk Status of Australia's Alpine and Subalpine Ecosystems
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Use of Expert Elicitation to Quantify Pasture Losses and Economic Costs of Invertebrate Pests in South‐Eastern Australian Dairy Farms
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Comparing wildlife habitat suitability models based on expert opinion with camera trap detections
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Connecting research and practice to enhance the evolutionary potential of species under climate change
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Adaptive capacity of alpine fauna in Australia
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Hindcasting long‐term data unveils the influence of a changing climate on small mammal communities
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Using Expert Knowledge to Guide Transparent Mapping of Occupiable Threatened Species Habitat for Environmental Impact Assessment Purposes
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Dry Soils Increase the Impact of Experimental Warming on Plant Community Composition in an Australian Subalpine Meadow
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The Heat Is On: Acclimation of Alpine Plants to Water Stress and Thermal Tolerance Under an Experimentally‐induced Heat Event
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Pollen DNA metabarcoding reveals cryptic diversity and high spatial turnover in alpine plant–pollinator networks
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