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Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future

https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343312449033
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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The Democratic Peace and Territorial Conflict in the Twentieth Century
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The War Puzzle
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Peace and War
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A Spatial Model of International Conflict
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055400220078openalex-snapshot
Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture
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Untangling Neural Nets
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Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818300033324openalex-snapshot
Rationalist explanations for war
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818310000032openalex-snapshot
The Enforcement Problem in Coercive Bargaining: Interstate Conflict over Rebel Support in Civil Wars
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/03050628808434695openalex-snapshot
Reconstructing the correlates of war dataset on material capabilities of states, 1816–1985
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a004868openalex-snapshot
Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/10.3.244openalex-snapshot
Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpq013openalex-snapshot
Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/0020-8833.00183openalex-snapshot
Contentious Issues and World Politics: The Management of Territorial Claims in the Americas, 1816-1992
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2486.2009.00914.xopenalex-snapshot
Crisis Early Warning and Decision Support: Contemporary Approaches and Thoughts on Future Research
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00269.xopenalex-snapshot
Disputes, Democracies, and Dependencies: A Reexamination of the Kantian Peace
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.xopenalex-snapshot
A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00525.xopenalex-snapshot
The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002707310425openalex-snapshot
Bones of Contention
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Serbian Compliance or Defiance in Kosovo?
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The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts
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What Are They Fighting For? The Importance of Issues in International Conflict Research
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Why Do Neighbors Fight? Proximity, Interaction, or Territoriality
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Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894210388125openalex-snapshot
Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/089443939100900302openalex-snapshot
Prediction of Interstate Conflict Outcomes Using a Neural Network
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1960528openalex-snapshot
In Search of Theory: A New Paradigm for Global Politics. By Richard W. Mansbach and John A. Vasquez. (New York: Columbia University Press, 1981. Pp. xxv + 599. $25.00.)
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/20050168openalex-snapshot
Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2146675openalex-snapshot
Conflict and Defense: A General Theory, by Kenneth E. Boulding
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2149594openalex-snapshot
Theory of International Politics, by Kenneth N. Waltz
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2586378openalex-snapshot
Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2600766openalex-snapshot
Enduring Rivalries: Theoretical Constructs and Empirical Patterns
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The Dynamics of Enduring Rivalries
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Kant We All Just get Along? Opportunity, Willingness, and the Origins of the Democratic Peace
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Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/40201892openalex-snapshot
Theory of International Politics
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/445554openalex-snapshot
Conflict and Defense: A General Theory
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.29-2961openalex-snapshot
Peace and war: armed conflicts and international order, 1648-1989
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.38-5829openalex-snapshot
Triangulating peace: democracy, interdependence, and international organizations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.43-3634openalex-snapshot
Expert political judgment: how good is it? how can we know?

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2390049openalex-extracted
Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2409005openalex-extracted
The Triggers of War: Disentangling the Spark from the Powder Keg
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2418973openalex-extracted
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2550228openalex-extracted
Climate-Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa: Examining Predictive Power
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2763219openalex-extracted
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3939995openalex-extracted
Techniques for Forecasting Global Conflicts
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4573695openalex-extracted
Is Media Sentiment Associated with Future Conflict Events?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91884-6_1openalex-snapshot
Introduction
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-16936-7_36openalex-snapshot
Forecasting
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-16937-4_36-1openalex-snapshot
Forecasting
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-16937-4_36-2openalex-snapshot
Forecasting
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-021-01081-yopenalex-snapshot
Geopolitical risk spillovers and its determinants
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1004-0openalex-snapshot
On climate variability and civil war in Asia
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-014-1024-9openalex-snapshot
Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.05.002openalex-snapshot
Employing the shared socioeconomic pathways to predict CO 2 emissions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.04.001openalex-snapshot
Conflict forecasting using remote sensing data: An application to the Syrian civil war
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocs.2023.102074openalex-snapshot
An automated pattern recognition system for conflict
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100069openalex-snapshot
The Global Conflict Risk Index: A quantitative tool for policy support on conflict prevention
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.05.004openalex-snapshot
Implications of hydro-political dependency for international water cooperation and conflict: Insights from new data
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.01.013openalex-snapshot
Improving Governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario Forecasting the Next 50years
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544openalex-snapshot
Maximum Likelihood for Social Science
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.001openalex-snapshot
Preface
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.002openalex-snapshot
Acknowledgements
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.003openalex-snapshot
Notes on Notation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.004openalex-snapshot
Introduction to Maximum Likelihood
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.005openalex-snapshot
Theory and Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.006openalex-snapshot
Maximum Likelihood for Binary Outcomes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.007openalex-snapshot
Implementing MLE
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.008openalex-snapshot
Model Evaluation and Selection
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.009openalex-snapshot
Inference and Interpretation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.010openalex-snapshot
The Generalized Linear Model
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.011openalex-snapshot
Ordered Categorical Variable Models
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.012openalex-snapshot
Models for Nominal Data
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.013openalex-snapshot
Strategies for Analyzing Count Data
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.014openalex-snapshot
Strategies for Temporal Dependence: Duration Models
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.015openalex-snapshot
Strategies for Missing Data
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.016openalex-snapshot
Epilogue
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.017openalex-snapshot
Bibliography
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781316888544.018openalex-snapshot
Index
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/dap.2024.27openalex-snapshot
The promise of machine learning in violent conflict forecasting
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2015.84openalex-snapshot
Regions at Risk: Predicting Conflict Zones in African Insurgencies
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/s1047198700014315openalex-snapshot
The Five Vs of Big Data Political Science Introduction to the Virtual Issue on Big Data in Political Science Political Analysis
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2022.2009821openalex-snapshot
A shape-based approach to conflict forecasting
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2022.2017290openalex-snapshot
Forecasting conflict in Africa with automated machine learning systems
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2016.1216729openalex-snapshot
Forecasting the 2016 General Election in Jamaica
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1080/2154896x.2020.1757831openalex-snapshot
Leaving its Arctic reluctance behind: the re-emergence of U.S. security policy focus towards the European High North and its implications for Norway
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1080/21681015.2025.2580997openalex-snapshot
Designing a double deep reinforcement learning selection tool for resilient demand prediction
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1086/716283openalex-snapshot
Trust in Public Policy Algorithms
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqac036openalex-snapshot
One without the Other? Prediction and Policy in International Studies
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viac024openalex-snapshot
Tipping Points: Challenges in Analyzing International Crisis Escalation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogv002openalex-snapshot
Can We Predict Politics? Toward What End?: Table 1.
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/obo/9780199743292-0179openalex-snapshot
Forecasting in International Relations
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpw015openalex-snapshot
Food imports, international prices, and violence in Africa
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpv024openalex-snapshot
Comparing Random Forest with Logistic Regression for Predicting Class-Imbalanced Civil War Onset Data
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1108/s0731-905320160000037012openalex-snapshot
Estimating Binary Spatial Autoregressive Models for Rare Events
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1109/bigdata47090.2019.9005963openalex-snapshot
Modeling and Forecasting Armed Conflict: AutoML with Human-Guided Machine Learning
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12356openalex-snapshot
Born Weak, Growing Strong: Anti‐Government Protests as a Signal of Rebel Strength in the Context of Civil Wars
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.70002openalex-snapshot
On the Political Economy of Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1162/glep_a_00260openalex-snapshot
Basins at Risk: Predicting International River Basin Conflict and Cooperation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01016openalex-snapshot
The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/0022002719896405openalex-snapshot
Introducing the Targeted Mass Killing Data Set for the Study and Forecasting of Mass Atrocities
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/0022002720918923openalex-snapshot
Forecasting Civil Wars: Theory and Structure in an Age of “Big Data” and Machine Learning
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/00220027211026748openalex-snapshot
Is Theory Useful for Conflict Prediction? A Response to Beger, Morgan, and Ward
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313500501openalex-snapshot
Grievances, economic wealth, and civil conflict
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313507302openalex-snapshot
Early Warning Signals for War in the News
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/0022343315585611openalex-snapshot
Making useful conflict predictions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316684192openalex-snapshot
The shape of things to come? Expanding the inequality and grievance model for civil war forecasts with event data
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316687615openalex-snapshot
Market Anticipations of Conflict Onsets
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/0022343317691330openalex-snapshot
Introduction
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/0022343317744826openalex-snapshot
Where, when, and how does the UN work to prevent civil war in self-determination disputes?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/0738894214545034openalex-snapshot
Forecasting conflict management in militarized interstate disputes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/07388942261422045openalex-snapshot
Text as data for crisis-early warning: A comparative assessment of NLP methods for conflict prediction
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/1548512919827659openalex-snapshot
A Bayesian forecasting model of international conflict
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/2053168014535909openalex-snapshot
Forecasting military expenditure
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.12794/metadc1707385openalex-snapshot
Interstate Influence Strategies in Border Crises: 1918-2015
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2017-0023openalex-snapshot
Ornithology and Varieties of Conflict: A Personal Retrospective on Conflict Forecasting
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2172/1120088openalex-snapshot
Learning from the Past, Looking to the Future: Modeling Social Unrest in Karachi, Pakistan
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.22451/5817.ibj2023.vol7.1.11076openalex-snapshot
Comprendiendo la dinámica de los conflictos en américa latina
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/bkrn8openalex-snapshot
The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3233/ds-170002openalex-snapshot
Conflict Forecasting and Its Limits
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3386/w25980openalex-snapshot
The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3390/su12166574openalex-snapshot
Revisiting the Contested Role of Natural Resources in Violent Conflict Risk through Machine Learning
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.4324/9780203105962openalex-snapshot
Routledge Handbook of Civil Wars
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2024-15-2-36-56openalex-snapshot
Not Everyone Will Be Taken into the Future? The Role of Forecasting in International Relations Theory
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