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It Could Have Been True: How Counterfactual Thoughts Reduce Condemnation of Falsehoods and Increase Political Polarization

https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167217746152
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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Counterfactuals as Behavioral Primes: Priming the Simulation Heuristic and Consideration of Alternatives
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(78)90062-8openalex-snapshot
The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic
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The Functional Theory of Counterfactual Thinking: New Evidence, New Challenges, New Insights
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2014.08.005openalex-snapshot
If I imagine it, then it happened: The Implicit Truth Value of imaginary representations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2017.01.003openalex-snapshot
Undoing the past in order to lie in the present: Counterfactual thinking and deceptive communication
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2003.07.009openalex-snapshot
Activating a mental simulation mind-set through generation of alternatives: Implications for debiasing in related and unrelated domains
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2004.08.009openalex-snapshot
“What I did” versus “what I might have done”: Effect of factual versus counterfactual thinking on blame, guilt, and shame in prisoners
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2009.08.004openalex-snapshot
Counterfactual thinking and confidence in blackjack: A test of the counterfactual inflation hypothesis
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2011.05.007openalex-snapshot
What mediation analysis can (not) do
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2011.10.006openalex-snapshot
Feeling good and feeling truth: The interactive effects of mood and processing fluency on truth judgments
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2012.08.012openalex-snapshot
The unhealthy road not taken: Licensing indulgence by exaggerating counterfactual sins
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2012.11.010openalex-snapshot
What lies beneath: How the distance between truth and lie drives dishonesty
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2014.03.005openalex-snapshot
Are liars ethical? On the tension between benevolence and honesty
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2014.08.007openalex-snapshot
Holding on to what might have been may loosen (or tighten) the ties that bind us: A counterfactual potency analysis of previous dating alternatives
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2011.02.001openalex-snapshot
Justified ethicality: Observing desired counterfactuals modifies ethical perceptions and behavior
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s0065-2601(08)60052-0openalex-snapshot
Some Contemporary Approaches
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s0079-7421(08)00410-6openalex-snapshot
Chapter 10 Motivated Moral Reasoning
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511809477.015openalex-snapshot
The simulation heuristic
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1020647814263openalex-snapshot
Stretching the Truth: Elastic Justification and Motivated Communication of Uncertain Information
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037//0022-3514.67.4.585openalex-snapshot
"If only I weren't" versus "If only I hadn't": Distinguishing shame and guilt in conterfactual thinking.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.43.1.89openalex-snapshot
Self-relevant scenarios as mediators of likelihood estimates and compliance: Does imagining make it so?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.45.2.293openalex-snapshot
Imagination and expectation: The effect of imagining behavioral scripts on personal influences.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.57.4.581openalex-snapshot
When a coincidence is suspicious: The role of mental simulation.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.69.4.603openalex-snapshot
When less is more: Counterfactual thinking and satisfaction among Olympic medalists.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.69.6.1069openalex-snapshot
Multiple explanation: A consider-an-alternative strategy for debiasing judgments.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.75.3.639openalex-snapshot
Close-call counterfactuals and belief-system defenses: I was not almost wrong but I was almost right.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.78.5.853openalex-snapshot
The psychology of the unthinkable: Taboo trade-offs, forbidden base rates, and heretical counterfactuals.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.88.6.895openalex-snapshot
Moral Conviction: Another Contributor to Attitude Strength or Something More?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.89.2.117openalex-snapshot
How Surveillance Begets Perceptions of Dishonesty: The Case of the Counterfactual Sinner.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480openalex-snapshot
The case for motivated reasoning.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.110.3.499openalex-snapshot
Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.112.1.160openalex-snapshot
When small effects are impressive.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.121.1.133openalex-snapshot
Counterfactual thinking.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.93.2.136openalex-snapshot
Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/a0021523openalex-snapshot
Counterfactual potency.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/a0030008openalex-snapshot
Inventing Racist Roads Not Taken: The Licensing Effect of Immoral Counterfactual Behaviors
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/a0033600openalex-snapshot
A double standard when group members behave badly: Transgression credit to ingroup leaders.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/a0034726openalex-snapshot
Moral character predominates in person perception and evaluation.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/pspi0000081openalex-snapshot
Artful Paltering: The Risks and Rewards of Using Truthful Statements to Mislead Others
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000098openalex-snapshot
Knowledge does not protect against illusory truth.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1501592112openalex-snapshot
Perceived intent motivates people to magnify observed harms
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/00224545.2015.1015477openalex-snapshot
Counterfactual and Factual Reflection: The Influence of Past Misdeeds on Future Immoral Behavior
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/03637751003758193openalex-snapshot
A Meta-Analysis of Research on Inoculation Theory
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/09658211.2013.779381openalex-snapshot
Adaptive constructive processes and memory accuracy: Consequences of counterfactual simulations in young and older adults
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/13546783.2013.775073openalex-snapshot
Dysfunctional counterfactual thinking: When simulating alternatives to reality impedes experiential learning
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/426605openalex-snapshot
How Warnings about False Claims Become Recommendations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8721.00048openalex-snapshot
Imagination and Memory
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2007.00563.xopenalex-snapshot
The Role of Moral Emotions in Predicting Support for Political Actions in Post‐War Iraq
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-9004.2011.00355.xopenalex-snapshot
Mediation Analysis in Social Psychology: Current Practices and New Recommendations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-122414-033249openalex-snapshot
Counterfactual Thought
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167200262004openalex-snapshot
Accountability and Close-Call Counterfactuals: The Loser Who Nearly Won and the Winner Who Nearly Lost
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167211410245openalex-snapshot
Learning Inhibition in the Monty Hall Problem
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167212453747openalex-snapshot
Prefactual Potency
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167214533131openalex-snapshot
Making Mountains of Morality From Molehills of Virtue
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167216669122openalex-snapshot
The Sin of Prediction
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167285111011openalex-snapshot
Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797612468163openalex-snapshot
Coming to Grips With the Past
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797613504785openalex-snapshot
Tainted Altruism
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/1088868308316091openalex-snapshot
The Functional Theory of Counterfactual Thinking
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550617720272openalex-snapshot
Liars, Damned Liars, and Zealots
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327957pspr0703_04openalex-snapshot
A Reflection and Evaluation Model of Comparative Thinking
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1521/soco.20.1.58.20943openalex-snapshot
Social Prediction and the “Allegiance Bias”
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203963784openalex-snapshot
The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3919364openalex-extracted
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/arcp.1076openalex-snapshot
Deception and the marketplace of ideas
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-04968-2_9openalex-snapshot
Statistical Controversies in Psychological Science
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34378-0_4openalex-snapshot
Socio-ecological Reflections for a Sustainable Society
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-69610-7_2openalex-snapshot
Simultaneously Leaders and Followers? Examining the Follower and Leader Role Switching: From Follett, Lewin, Fiedler, McGregor, Bass, Vroom, House, Hofstede, to Bennis, Schein, Avolio, ...., and Akande
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-024-05686-zopenalex-snapshot
Navigating the Ethical Terrain Around the Challenges of Fake News and False Narratives: An Integrative Literature Review and a Proposed Agenda for Future Research
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11031-022-09983-wopenalex-snapshot
Motivated reasoning: Election integrity beliefs, outcome acceptance, and polarization before, during, and after the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/bs.aesp.2022.11.001openalex-snapshot
Moral inconsistency
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2024.105735openalex-snapshot
Ethical judgments of poverty depictions in the context of charity advertising
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2022.101375openalex-snapshot
The moral psychology of misinformation: Why we excuse dishonesty in a post-truth world
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2024.101788openalex-snapshot
“It's Not Literally True, But You Get the Gist:” How nuanced understandings of truth encourage people to condone and spread misinformation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.03.048openalex-snapshot
Moral credentials versus moral credits: Two paths to consumers’ licensing of brand transgressions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2022.104308openalex-snapshot
From critical to hypocritical: Counterfactual thinking increases partisan disagreement about media hypocrisy
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2022.104404openalex-snapshot
Counterfactual thinking as a prebunking strategy to contrast misinformation on COVID-19
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2022.104421openalex-snapshot
Beyond belief: How social engagement motives influence the spread of conspiracy theories
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2025.104849openalex-snapshot
If only I had not fallen down the rabbit hole: Counterfactual thinking reduces engagement with conspiracy theories
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2025.104868openalex-snapshot
When are leaders blamed for bad events that never happened? Partisanship and close counterfactual catastrophes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.riob.2018.10.003openalex-snapshot
From inconsistency to hypocrisy: When does “saying one thing but doing another” invite condemnation?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663openalex-snapshot
Constructing Crisis
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663.001openalex-snapshot
Preface
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663.002openalex-snapshot
Undertaking a New Interpretive Effort
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663.003openalex-snapshot
Crisis as a Reification of Urgency
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663.004openalex-snapshot
Advancing the Crisis-as-Event Model
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663.005openalex-snapshot
Problems, Crises, and Contextual Constructionism
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663.006openalex-snapshot
An Objective Description and a Subjective Uh-Oh!
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663.007openalex-snapshot
Believing Claims of Urgency – Or Not
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663.008openalex-snapshot
The Power of a Good (Crisis) Narrative
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663.009openalex-snapshot
To Create Such a Crisis, to Foster Such a Tension
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663.010openalex-snapshot
Beyond Forged-in-Crisis Leadership
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663.011openalex-snapshot
So What?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663.012openalex-snapshot
References
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551663.013openalex-snapshot
Index
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x19002097openalex-snapshot
The social function of rationalization: An identity perspective
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/s1537592721004096openalex-snapshot
Expressive Survey Responding: A Closer Look at the Evidence and Its Implications for American Democracy
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1037/xge0001214openalex-snapshot
The moral repetition effect: Bad deeds seem less unethical when repeatedly encountered.
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s44159-022-00093-5openalex-snapshot
Cognitive–motivational mechanisms of political polarization in social-communicative contexts
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008389118openalex-snapshot
Personal experiences bridge moral and political divides better than facts
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1080/10463283.2024.2429329openalex-snapshot
The potential role of psychological time in the study of violent radicalisation, deradicalisation, and disengagement
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1080/21507740.2020.1740351openalex-snapshot
Deep Fakes and Memory Malleability: False Memories in the Service of Fake News
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1086/730763openalex-snapshot
When Truth Trumps Facts: Studies on Partisan Moral Flexibility in American Politics
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197840801.001.0001openalex-snapshot
The Honesty Crisis
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197840801.002.0005openalex-snapshot
Preface
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197840801.003.0001openalex-snapshot
Honesty Is a Lot More Interesting Than You Might Think
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197840801.003.0002openalex-snapshot
Why the News Is Not All Bad
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197840801.003.0003openalex-snapshot
The Honesty Crisis Surrounding Deepfakes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197840801.003.0004openalex-snapshot
Online Infidelity and the Honesty Crisis in Relationships
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197840801.003.0005openalex-snapshot
AI, Academic Cheating, and the Honesty Crisis in Education
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197840801.003.0006openalex-snapshot
Fake News and the Honesty Crisis in Politics
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197840801.003.0007openalex-snapshot
Fame, Lying, and the Honesty Crisis for Celebrities
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197840801.003.0008openalex-snapshot
Pastors and the Honesty Crisis in Religion
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197840801.003.0009openalex-snapshot
If Honesty Is Under Attack, Why Bother Trying to Protect It?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/ct/qtab019openalex-snapshot
Deception as a Bridging Concept in the Study of Disinformation, Misinformation, and Misperceptions: Toward a Holistic Framework
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2021.0342openalex-snapshot
Polarized imagination: partisanship influences the direction and consequences of counterfactual thinking
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1108/ejm-06-2023-0435openalex-snapshot
CSR as a buffer or backfire in brand transgressions: a motivated reasoning perspective
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1108/intr-09-2021-0677openalex-snapshot
Mind over matter: how biased perceptions of political knowledge influence selection and evaluation of political YouTube channels
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/apps.70120openalex-snapshot
Value and moral divergences between management researchers and managers: Evidence and a future research agenda
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/joms.12931openalex-snapshot
Stretch Goals, Factual/Counterfactual Reflection Strategies, and Firm Performance
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/mila.12373openalex-snapshot
The signaling function of sharing fake stories
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/spc3.12434openalex-snapshot
Evaluating the validity of Myers‐Briggs Type Indicator theory: A teaching tool and window into intuitive psychology
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/spc3.12891openalex-snapshot
Counterfactual thinking may attenuate polarization of COVID‐19 prevention behavior
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/tops.70066openalex-snapshot
Inference and Imagination
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/01461672211054947openalex-snapshot
National Narcissism predicts the Belief in and the Dissemination of Conspiracy Theories During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence From 56 Countries
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/01492063221106420openalex-snapshot
What We (Do Not) Know About Punishment Across Organizational Boundaries
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/0956797619887896openalex-snapshot
Misinformation and Morality: Encountering Fake-News Headlines Makes Them Seem Less Unethical to Publish and Share
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/09637214241242452openalex-snapshot
Intraindividual Conflicts Reduce the Polarization of Attitudes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/09637214241242458openalex-snapshot
Motivated Counterfactual Thinking and Moral Inconsistency: How We Use Our Imaginations to Selectively Condemn and Condone
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/1368430220987602openalex-snapshot
Politically oriented bullshit detection: Attitudinally conditional bullshit receptivity and bullshit sensitivity
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/13684302221102876openalex-snapshot
Flexible minds make more moderate views: Subtractive counterfactuals mitigate strong views about immigrants’ trustworthiness
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/1461444820969893openalex-snapshot
Why do so few people share fake news? It hurts their reputation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0281777openalex-snapshot
Moral leniency towards belief-consistent disinformation may help explain its spread on social media
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.17705/1thci.00166openalex-snapshot
Health-related Misinformation Harm during the COVID- 19 Pandemic: An Investigation of Non-comparative and Comparative Harm Perceptions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/4c6avopenalex-snapshot
National Narcissism and the Belief and the Dissemination of Conspiracy Theories During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence From 56 Countries
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.31274/td-20240329-291openalex-snapshot
Ethical disagreements in technology and management research
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3233/efi-211568openalex-snapshot
Looking beyond the impressions of algorithms and fact-checking in fighting online misinformation: A literature review
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3758/s13421-020-01096-4openalex-snapshot
Can confidence help account for and redress the effects of reading inaccurate information?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.5539/jms.v11n2p15openalex-snapshot
Definition of Trust as a Catalyst and the Implications Therefrom: A Deduction from a Literature Review
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.5964/jspp.6153openalex-snapshot
Talking about what would happen versus what happened: Tracking Congressional speeches during COVID-19
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.70675/2e02b9cfz3b17z4c05za865zfcbe3a9fb6e4openalex-snapshot
Understanding misinformation and fighting for information
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