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Nothing Happens by Accident, or Does It? A Low Prior for Randomness Does Not Explain Belief in Conspiracy Theories

https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797615598740
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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Unanswered questions: A preliminary investigation of personality and individual difference predictors of 9/11 conspiracist beliefs
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Belief in Conspiracy Theories and Susceptibility to the Conjunction Fallacy
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Belief in conspiracy theories: The influence of uncertainty and perceived morality
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Algorithmic Randomness and Complexity
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An Introduction to Kolmogorov Complexity and Its Applications
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From mere coincidences to meaningful discoveries
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The definition of random sequences
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Process complexity and effective random tests
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Simplicity: a unifying principle in cognitive science?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022481200029728openalex-snapshot
Von Mises' definition of random sequences reconsidered
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.37.5.637openalex-snapshot
The popularity of conspiracy theories of presidential assassination: A Bayesian analysis.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.103.3.566openalex-snapshot
Reconciling simplicity and likelihood principles in perceptual organization.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.104.2.301openalex-snapshot
Making sense of randomness: Implicit encoding as a basis for judgment.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/a0029620openalex-snapshot
Preverbal infants infer intentional agents from the perception of regularity.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/a0031081openalex-snapshot
Relatively random: Context effects on perceived randomness and predicted outcomes.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/srep02906openalex-snapshot
Pattern randomness aftereffect
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/00207166808803030openalex-snapshot
Three approaches to the quantitative definition of information *
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/13506285.2014.950365openalex-snapshot
Natural scene statistics mediate the perception of image complexity
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/17470919.2014.906366openalex-snapshot
Supernatural believers attribute more intentions to random movement than skeptics: An fMRI study
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199230761.001.0001openalex-snapshot
Computability and Randomness
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/0162-895x.00160openalex-snapshot
Beliefs in Conspiracies
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8721.2009.01649.xopenalex-snapshot
Compensatory Control
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2044-8295.1990.tb02372.xopenalex-snapshot
A ‘sheep‐goat effect’ in repetition avoidance: Extra‐sensory perception as an effect of subjective probability?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2044-8295.2010.02004.xopenalex-snapshot
Conspiracist ideation in Britain and Austria: Evidence of a monological belief system and associations between individual psychological differences and real‐world and fictitious conspiracy theories
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1159845openalex-snapshot
Lacking Control Increases Illusory Pattern Perception
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1145/321495.321506openalex-snapshot
On the Length of Programs for Computing Finite Binary Sequences
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797612457686openalex-snapshot
NASA Faked the Moon Landing—Therefore, (Climate) Science Is a Hoax
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550611434786openalex-snapshot
Dead and Alive
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.14340/spp.2015.01a0002openalex-snapshot
Gender and age differences in visual perception of pattern randomness
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1525/california/9780520238053.001.0001openalex-snapshot
A Culture of ConspiracyApocalyptic Visions in Contemporary America
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2018923openalex-snapshot
Probability, Statistics and Truth.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2564659openalex-snapshot
Of Conspiracy Theories
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/3791630openalex-snapshot
Belief in Conspiracy Theories
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/40200358openalex-snapshot
The Paranoid Style in American Politics. And Other Essays
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2466/pr0.100.1.199-202openalex-snapshot
Conspiracy Thinking and State-Trait Anxiety in Young Polish Adults
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2466/pr0.105.2.389-393openalex-snapshot
Right-Wing Authoritarianism and Conspiracy Thinking in a Polish Sample
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3200/socp.148.2.210-222openalex-snapshot
The Hidden Impact of Conspiracy Theories: Perceived and Actual Influence of Theories Surrounding the Death of Princess Diana
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00279openalex-snapshot
Measuring Belief in Conspiracy Theories: The Generic Conspiracist Beliefs Scale
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00424openalex-snapshot
Conspiracy theories as quasi-religious mentality: an integrated account from cognitive science, social representations theory, and frame theory
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3758/brm.42.1.333openalex-snapshot
A computer program for testing and analyzing random generation behavior in normal and clinical samples: The Mittenecker Pointing Test
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-013-0416-0openalex-snapshot
Algorithmic complexity for short binary strings applied to psychology: a primer
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-015-0574-3openalex-snapshot
Algorithmic complexity for psychology: a user-friendly implementation of the coding theorem method
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.53841/bpsspr.2007.9.2.18openalex-snapshot
A major event has a major cause: Evidence for the role of heuristics in reasoning about conspiracy theories
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.41-6597openalex-snapshot
A culture of conspiracy: apocalyptic visions in contemporary America
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5964/jspp.v3i1.443openalex-snapshot
Recurrent fury: Conspiratorial discourse in the blogosphere triggered by research on the role of conspiracist ideation in climate denial

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

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Believing Conspiracy Theories : Causes, Effects and Processes from a Comparative Empirical Perspective
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Conspiracy Formation Is in the Detail: On the Interaction of Conspiratorial Predispositions and Semantic Cues
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/acp.3331openalex-snapshot
Statistical Bias and Endorsement of Conspiracy Theories
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/acp.3969openalex-snapshot
Reducing teachers' unfounded beliefs through critical‐thinking education: A non‐r andomized controlled trial
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.2331openalex-snapshot
Connecting the dots: Illusory pattern perception predicts belief in conspiracies and the supernatural
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.2507openalex-snapshot
Suspicious binds: Conspiracy thinking and tenuous perceptions of causal connections between co‐occurring and spuriously correlated events
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.2769openalex-snapshot
A power‐challenging theory of society, or a conservative mindset? Upward and downward conspiracy theories as ideologically distinct beliefs
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.2859openalex-snapshot
Going beyond simplicity: Using machine learning to predict belief in conspiracy theories
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/mar.21703openalex-snapshot
Consumer response to online behavioral advertising in a social media context: The role of perceived ad complicity
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Algorithmic Cognition and the Computational Nature of the Mind
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86541-2_25openalex-snapshot
Conspiracy Theories
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Pandemics and Conspiracist Ideation: Making Sense of Collective Sense-Making and Health Information Needs in New Media Environments in Africa
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_707-1openalex-snapshot
Algorithmic Cognition and the Computational Nature of the Mind
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_707-2openalex-snapshot
Algorithmic Cognition and the Computational Nature of the Mind
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-64985-5_9openalex-snapshot
Algorithmic Complexity in Cognition
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/bs.aesp.2024.10.004openalex-snapshot
The social psychology of conspiracy theories: Key insights and future challenges
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.actpsy.2017.01.007openalex-snapshot
A preference for some types of complexity comment on “perceived beauty of random texture patterns: A preference for complexity”
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.amp.2022.01.024openalex-snapshot
De la connaissance à la croyance ou l’égarement de Jules Luys, un cheminement intellectuel toujours d’actualité
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chbr.2025.100804openalex-snapshot
Conspiracy beliefs and analytical thinking in COVID-19 information web search
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2020.02.007openalex-snapshot
The dark side of social movements: social identity, non-conformity, and the lure of conspiracy theories
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2018.06.072openalex-snapshot
Creationism and conspiracism share a common teleological bias
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jecp.2026.106507openalex-snapshot
A compression account of development in the ability to group information in working memory
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2022.104357openalex-snapshot
Clarifying the relationship between randomness dismissal and conspiracist ideation: A preregistered replication and meta-analysis
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2022.104315openalex-snapshot
The generic conspiracist beliefs scale – 5: A short-form measure of conspiracist ideation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/epi.2024.55openalex-snapshot
Conspiracy Theories and Religious Worldviews: Unraveling a Complex Relationship
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008123openalex-snapshot
“Quick and dirty”: Intuitive cognitive style predicts trust in Didier Raoult and his hydroxychloroquine-based treatment against COVID-19
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01258-7openalex-snapshot
Conspiracy mentality and political orientation across 26 countries
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s44159-022-00133-0openalex-snapshot
Individual, intergroup and nation-level influences on belief in conspiracy theories
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1080/02691728.2018.1440021openalex-snapshot
Expertise and Conspiracy Theories
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197866177.001.0001openalex-snapshot
Explaining Knowledge
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197866177.002.0004openalex-snapshot
Introduction
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197866177.003.0001openalex-snapshot
Safety and Its Discontents
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197866177.003.0002openalex-snapshot
Explanationism: A Brief History
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/9780197866177.003.0003openalex-snapshot
The Abductivist Account of Knowledge
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Applications of Abductivism
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Glossary of Test Cases
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198871965.001.0001openalex-snapshot
Why We Doubt
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198871965.002.0003openalex-snapshot
Copyright Page
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198871965.002.0004openalex-snapshot
Dedication
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198871965.002.0005openalex-snapshot
Preface
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List of Figures
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198871965.003.0001openalex-snapshot
Introduction and Book Summary
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198871965.003.0002openalex-snapshot
The Need for an Explanation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198871965.003.0003openalex-snapshot
The Skeptical Rule
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198871965.003.0004openalex-snapshot
Broad Function (Part 1)
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Broad Function (Part 2)
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Narrow Function
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Solving the Skeptical Paradox
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198871965.003.0008openalex-snapshot
Skepticism in Society
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198871965.003.0009openalex-snapshot
Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198871965.003.0010openalex-snapshot
Varieties of Doubt
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198871965.003.0011openalex-snapshot
Philosophically Accommodating Accounts
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198871965.003.0012openalex-snapshot
Psychological Accounts
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Objections to Sensitivity
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Compression in Working Memory and Its Relationship With Fluid Intelligence
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Understanding Conspiracy Theories
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The Paranoid Style in American Politics Revisited: An Ideological Asymmetry in Conspiratorial Thinking
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Australasian Public Awareness and Belief in Conspiracy Theories: Motivational Correlates
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1162/jocn_a_02033openalex-snapshot
The Experience of Meaningful Coincidences Is Associated with Stronger Alpha Power Increases during an Eyes-closed Resting Condition: A Bayesian Replication Approach
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Handbook of Conspiracy Theory and Contemporary Religion
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Conspiracy Thinking in Europe and America: A Comparative Study
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Repeating is not believing: the transmission of conspiracy theories
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1177/0963721417718261openalex-snapshot
The Psychology of Conspiracy Theories
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Conspiracy Theories: Evolved Functions and Psychological Mechanisms
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The Conspiratorial Style in Lay Economic Thinking
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An examination of the factorial and convergent validity of four measures of conspiracist ideation, with recommendations for researchers
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0230365openalex-snapshot
Psychometric assessment of the Generic Conspiracist Beliefs Scale
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Conspiracist and paranormal beliefs: A typology of non-reductive ideation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.26439/persona2022.n025(1).5870openalex-snapshot
Evaluación psicométrica de una escala de creencias conspirativas para población peruana
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The measurement and prediction of conspiracy beliefs
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The measurement and prediction of conspiracy beliefs
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Before Fighting, Know your Enemy: What do we Measure With our Scales of Conspiracism?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8aexfopenalex-snapshot
Active Inference of Interpersonal Trust Within and Across Mental Disorders
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A Power-Challenging Theory of Society, or a Conservative Mindset? Upward and Downward Conspiracy Theories as Ideologically Distinct Beliefs (IN PRESS)
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00201openalex-snapshot
Developmental Abilities to Form Chunks in Immediate Memory and Its Non-Relationship to Span Development
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.855713openalex-snapshot
What Is the Support for Conspiracy Beliefs About COVID-19 Vaccines in Latin America? A Prospective Exploratory Study in 13 Countries
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Human Creativity, Perceptual Rigidity, the Media and Conspiracy Theories in the Age of AI
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3758/s13421-023-01474-8openalex-snapshot
Can compression take place in working memory without a central contribution of long-term memory?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3917/anpsy1.202.0175openalex-snapshot
Children’s working memory develops at similar rates for sequences differing in compressibility
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3917/dio.249.0088openalex-snapshot
Répéter n’est pas croire. Sur la transmission des idées conspirationnistes
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Conspiracy, anxiety, ontology: Theorising QAnon
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A “Conspiracy Theory” Conspiracy? A Mixed Methods Investigation of Laypeople’s Rejection (and Acceptance) of a Controversial Label
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Développer l'esprit critique par la catégorisation multiple
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Comment on raisonne sur les explications : philosophie et psychologie du raisonnement explicatif
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Two-dimensional Kolmogorov complexity and an empirical validation of the Coding theorem method by compressibility
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