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Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

https://doi.org/10.1198/jbes.2009.0003

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What this work says

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Financial Analysts and the False Consensus Effect

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The Shape of Firms' Inflation Expectations: Uncertainty, Skewness, and Tail Risks

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12190openalex-snapshot

Subjective Expectations and Income Processes in Rural India

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12113openalex-snapshot

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND BEHAVIOR: DO SURVEY RESPONDENTS ACT ON THEIR BELIEFS?

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2011.00426.xopenalex-snapshot

ESTIMATING DYNAMIC EULER EQUATIONS WITH MULTIVARIATE PROFESSIONAL FORECASTS

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2012.00705.xopenalex-snapshot

Truncated Product Methods for Panel Unit Root Tests*

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02162.xopenalex-snapshot

Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2010.00371.xopenalex-snapshot

An Empirical Investigation of the Effects of Rounding on the SPF Probabilities of Decline and Output Growth Histograms

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12099openalex-snapshot

UNEMPLOYED BUT OPTIMISTIC: OPTIMAL INSURANCE DESIGN WITH BIASED BELIEFS

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12128openalex-snapshot

Nowcasting and the Taylor Rule

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12227openalex-snapshot

Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12451openalex-snapshot

Asymmetric Preferences and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policy Rules

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12622openalex-snapshot

Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12728openalex-snapshot

A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12811openalex-snapshot

The Term Structure of Uncertainty: New Evidence from Survey Expectations

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12867openalex-snapshot

Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13044openalex-snapshot

Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multiwave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13105openalex-snapshot

From Fixed‐Event to Fixed‐Horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multihorizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13261openalex-snapshot

Heterogeneity in Imperfect Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence from a Novel Survey

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12195openalex-snapshot

Inflation Risk in Corporate Bonds

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12190openalex-snapshot

Asymmetry of Individual and Aggregate Inflation Expectations: A Survey

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12542openalex-snapshot

Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty*

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12109openalex-snapshot

Forecasting Distributions of Inflation Rates: the Functional Auto-Regressive Approach

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/rssb.12154openalex-snapshot

Of Quantiles and Expectiles: Consistent Scoring Functions, Choquet Representations and Forecast Rankings

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-081512-141510openalex-snapshot

Measuring Inflation Expectations

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-110716-032347openalex-snapshot

Forward-Looking Estimates of Interest-Rate Distributions

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105122openalex-snapshot

Risk Measures: Robustness, Elicitability, and Backtesting

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1162/rest.2009.11167openalex-snapshot

The Relationships among Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00499openalex-snapshot

The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00867openalex-snapshot

How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2011.r10138openalex-snapshot

Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1198/jbes.2011.09053openalex-snapshot

Flexible Approximation of Subjective Expectations Using Probability Questions

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1214/16-aos1439openalex-snapshot

Higher order elicitability and Osband’s principle

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1214/21-ejs1808openalex-snapshot

Forecast evaluation of quantiles, prediction intervals, and other set-valued functionals

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1214/24-aoas1900openalex-snapshot

Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20151299openalex-snapshot

How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1257/app.20210383openalex-snapshot

Tax Refund Uncertainty: Evidence and Welfare Implications

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20171300openalex-snapshot

The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1257/pol.5.3.30openalex-snapshot

The Welfare Effects of Misperceived Product Costs: Data and Calibrations from the Automobile Market

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11517openalex-snapshot

Household Expectations and Dissent Among Policymakers

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11517-1.0openalex-snapshot

Household Expectations and Dissent Among Policymakers

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1667openalex-snapshot

Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1781openalex-snapshot

Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4487openalex-snapshot

Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00820openalex-snapshot

Extrapolative Uncertainty and Household Economic Behavior

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