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Overconfidence is universal? Elicitation of Genuine Overconfidence (EGO) procedure reveals systematic differences across domain, task knowledge, and incentives in four populations
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What this work says
Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(199906)12:2<165::aid-bdm316>3.0.co;2-nopenalex-snapshot
Cross-national differences in risk preference and lay predictions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119125563openalex-snapshot
The Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.3960080105openalex-snapshot
Probability judgment accuracy for general knowledge. Cross‐national differences and assessment methods
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1997.2696openalex-snapshot
General Knowledge Overconfidence: Cross-National Variations, Response Style, and “Reality”
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1998.2771openalex-snapshot
Cross-Cultural Variations in Probability Judgment Accuracy: Beyond General Knowledge Overconfidence?
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Why the better-than-average effect is a worse-than-average measure of self-enhancement: An investigation of conflicting findings from studies of East Asian self-evaluations
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Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?
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Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?
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Probability judgment accuracy: China, Japan, and the United States
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Pride, personality, and the evolutionary foundations of human social status
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2008.01.002openalex-snapshot
Do people really believe they are above average?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2007.07.002openalex-snapshot
Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction☆
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2015.09.003openalex-snapshot
Wide of the mark: Evidence on the underlying causes of overprecision in judgment
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Self-Evaluation: To Thine Own Self Be Good, To Thine Own Self Be Sure, To Thine Own Self Be True, and To Thine Own Self be Better
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Advances In Experimental Social Psychology
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Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability
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The weirdest people in the world?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x1000018xopenalex-snapshot
WEIRD languages have misled us, too [Comment on Henrich et al.]
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A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment
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Overconfidence over the lifespan
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Similarity and uniqueness: The effects of attribute type, relevance, and individual differences in self-esteem and depression.
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Is acculturation unidimensional or bidimensional? A head-to-head comparison in the prediction of personality, self-identity, and adjustment.
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The totalitarian ego: Fabrication and revision of personal history.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066x.55.1.99openalex-snapshot
Psychological resources, positive illusions, and health.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-0663.86.1.114openalex-snapshot
Highly confident but wrong: Gender differences and similarities in confidence judgments.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.57.6.1082openalex-snapshot
Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.63.4.596openalex-snapshot
Inclusion of Other in the Self Scale and the structure of interpersonal closeness.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.72.6.1245openalex-snapshot
Individual and collective processes in the construction of the self: Self-enhancement in the United States and self-criticism in Japan.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.73.5.885openalex-snapshot
No one in my group can be below the group's average: A robust positivity bias in favor of anonymous peers.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121openalex-snapshot
Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.89.4.531openalex-snapshot
Where Is the Evidence for Pancultural Self-Enhancement? A Reply to Sedikides, Gaertner, and Toguchi (2003).
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.103.2.193openalex-snapshot
Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.84.1.1openalex-snapshot
Women's self-confidence in achievement settings.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.106.4.766openalex-snapshot
Is there a universal need for positive self-regard?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.115.2.502openalex-snapshot
The trouble with overconfidence.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.98.4.506openalex-snapshot
Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/a0017936openalex-snapshot
The jury and abjury of my peers: The self in face and dignity cultures.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/a0026556openalex-snapshot
How smart do you think you are? A meta-analysis on the validity of self-estimates of cognitive ability.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/e615882011-200openalex-snapshot
A Simple Remedy for Overprecision in Judgment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/h0076486openalex-snapshot
Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/pas0000482openalex-snapshot
Methodology of performance scoring in the d2 sustained-attention test: Cumulative-reliability functions and practical guidelines.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0192openalex-snapshot
Innovation in the collective brain
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00078openalex-snapshot
Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/1469-7610.00715openalex-snapshot
The “Reading the Mind in the Eyes” Test Revised Version: A Study with Normal Adults, and Adults with Asperger Syndrome or High‐functioning Autism
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/fima.12030openalex-snapshot
US and Domestic Market Gains and Asian Investors’ Overconfident Trading Behavior
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-839x.2011.01362.xopenalex-snapshot
Modesty in self‐presentation: A comparison between the USA and Japan
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00813.xopenalex-snapshot
CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1246850openalex-snapshot
Large-Scale Psychological Differences Within China Explained by Rice Versus Wheat Agriculture
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/003355301556400openalex-snapshot
Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302760193913openalex-snapshot
Self-Confidence and Personal Motivation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/jocn.2009.21187openalex-snapshot
Cross-cultural Reading the Mind in the Eyes: An fMRI Investigation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/002202217893002openalex-snapshot
Cultural Differences in Probabilistic Thinking
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167200261007openalex-snapshot
Beyond Self-Presentation: Evidence for Self-Criticism among Japanese
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167294205014openalex-snapshot
The Measurement of Independent and Interdependent Self-Construals
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672952112007openalex-snapshot
Trait Importance and Modifiability as Factors Influencing Self-Assessment and Self-Enhancement Motives
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167297232005openalex-snapshot
Gender Differences in Seff-Perceptions: Convergent Evidence from Three Measures of Accuracy and Bias
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/014920639502100507openalex-snapshot
Cultural Differences in Innovation Championing Strategies
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/1088868306294587openalex-snapshot
In Search of East Asian Self-Enhancement
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/1088868314544693openalex-snapshot
What Is Implicit Self-Esteem, and Does it Vary Across Cultures?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/135910457000100301openalex-snapshot
Back-Translation for Cross-Cultural Research
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1198/016214506000001437openalex-snapshot
Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130921openalex-snapshot
Overconfidence in Political Behavior
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.1.306openalex-snapshot
Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400876136openalex-snapshot
Society and the Adolescent Self-Image
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.139415openalex-snapshot
Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.354387openalex-snapshot
CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1252316openalex-snapshot
The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/rhnxcopenalex-snapshot
XCWG: Overconfidence Across Cultures
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w13727openalex-snapshot
Gender Differences in Competition: Evidence from a Matrilineal and a Patriarchal Society
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta6690openalex-snapshot
Gender Differences in Competition: Evidence\\ From a Matrilineal and a Patriarchal Society
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.31-2965openalex-snapshot
The psychology of judgment and decision making
What points at this work
Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.
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Strategic Competition and Self-Confidence
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Individual Differences in Overconfidence: A New Measurement Approach
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4583070openalex-extracted
Bridging the Confidence Gap: A Comparative Study of Interventions on Overconfidence Among Men and Women
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Self‐deception: Distorted metacognitive process in ambiguous contexts
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inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2026.106665openalex-snapshot
Individual differences in overconfidence: A common core and its motivational and cognitive correlates
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inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/jmo.2019.93openalex-snapshot
Effect of the different forms of overconfidence on venture creation: Overestimation, overplacement and overprecision
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1037/rev0000370openalex-snapshot
Overprecision is a property of thinking systems.
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1037/rev0000480openalex-snapshot
Beyond Newton: Why assumptions of universality are critical to cognitive science, and how to finally move past them.
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The social transmission of overconfidence.
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1037/xge0001655openalex-snapshot
Different methods elicit different belief distributions.
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Non Experts: Which Ones Would Trust You?
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Cultural Evolution and Public Policy
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Paradox of diversity in the collective brain
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Psychology as a Historical Science
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Gender inequality and national gender gaps in overconfidence
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Effects of actual and perceived financial literacy skills on financial well-being at retirement
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Gender Difference in Overconfidence and Household Financial Literacy
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Gender differences in overplacement in familiar and unfamiliar tasks: Far more similarities
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Individual differences in overconfidence: A new measurement approach
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