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NFL Betting Biases, Profitable Strategies, and the Wisdom of the Crowd

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3289715
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Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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Regression to the mean and football wagers
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02761585openalex-extracted
Bettor preferences and market efficiency in football totals markets
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Is the NFL betting market still inefficient?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(78)90037-5openalex-extracted
A note on aggregating opinions
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The efficiency of certain speculative markets and gambler behavior
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405x(91)90034-hopenalex-extracted
The degree of inefficiency in the football betting market Statistical tests
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405x(93)90019-8openalex-extracted
The underpricing of initial public offerings and the partial adjustment phenomenon
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405x(95)00848-9openalex-extracted
A generalized model for testing the home and favorite team advantage in point spread markets
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2006.09.001openalex-extracted
The home team weather advantage and biases in the NFL betting market
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.05.006openalex-extracted
Using advice from multiple sources to revise and improve judgments
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s0148-6195(01)00040-6openalex-extracted
The home field advantage revisited: a search for the bias in other sports betting markets
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s0148-6195(98)00025-3openalex-extracted
No place like home: an examination of the home field advantage in gambling strategies in NFL football
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s1062-9769(03)00033-4openalex-extracted
Efficient markets, fair bets, and profitability in NBA totals 1995–96 to 2001–02
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511493614.019openalex-extracted
Information (in)efficiency in prediction markets
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.112.2.494openalex-extracted
The Robust Beauty of Majority Rules in Group Decisions.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/a0015145openalex-extracted
Strategies for revising judgment: How (and how well) people use others’ opinions.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/h0042344openalex-extracted
A survey of studies contrasting the quality of group performance and individual performance, 1920-1957.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684042000177152openalex-extracted
Efficiency in the NFL betting market: modifying and consolidating research methods
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/09603100701335432openalex-extracted
Weather biases in the NFL totals market
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850903508242openalex-extracted
NFL bettor biases and price setting: further tests of the Levitt hypothesis of sportsbook behaviour
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2011.568384openalex-extracted
Herd behaviour and underdogs in the NFL
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/209625openalex-extracted
Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/261332openalex-extracted
Beating the Spread: Testing the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League Games
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/655844openalex-extracted
Explaining the Favorite–Long Shot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/658070openalex-extracted
Intuitive Biases in Choice versus Estimation: Implications for the Wisdom of Crowds
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00342openalex-extracted
Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00207.xopenalex-extracted
Why are Gambling Markets Organised so Differently from Financial Markets?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb02617.xopenalex-extracted
Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04702.xopenalex-extracted
Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1994.tb04429.xopenalex-extracted
Market Efficiency and the Favorite-Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb01129.xopenalex-extracted
Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence From The NFL Sports Betting Market
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.xopenalex-extracted
On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002502003003003openalex-extracted
Market Efficiency and a Profitable Betting Rule
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002504266861openalex-extracted
Bettor Misperceptions in the NBA
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002512440580openalex-extracted
The Impact of Visiting Team Travel on Game Outcome and Biases in NFL Betting Markets
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002512454544openalex-extracted
Early Season NFL Over/Under Bias
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/155862351300800404openalex-extracted
Bettor Biases and the Home-Underdog Bias in the NFL
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0459openalex-extracted
Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.10.1317openalex-extracted
Learning and Efficiency in a Gambling Market
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1595525openalex-extracted
Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.166840openalex-extracted
Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2787744openalex-extracted
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1418469openalex-extracted
Odds Adjustments by American Horse-Race Bettors
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1419083openalex-extracted
Stability of Choices among Uncertain Alternatives
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v5i2.569openalex-extracted
REVISITING THE “HOT HAND” HYPOTHESIS IN THE NBA BETTING MARKET USING ACTUAL SPORTSBOOK BETTING PERCENTAGES ON FAVORITES AND UNDERDOGS
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v1i3.429openalex-extracted
DOES SPORTSBOOK.COM SET POINTSPREADS TO MAXIMIZE PROFITS?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v7i2.601openalex-extracted
Early Season NBA Over/Under Bias
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v8i2.888openalex-extracted
The Relationship between Sportsbook Volume, Forecast Accuracy, and Market Efficiency: The NFL and NCAA Football
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2019.08.006openalex-snapshot
Swarm Intelligence? Stock Opinions of the Crowd and Stock Returns
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