On the public citation graph

Aggregating or Interacting?: The Role of Individual Overconfidence

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4645002
0 signed · 76 inferred · view as graph

Inferred edges come from two machine sources: sweeps of open repository metadata (mostly SSRN and Zenodo), and a bulk OpenAlex citation snapshot. Every row below is labelled with the one it came from. Neither is a complete citation index — absence here is not evidence of absence.

Is this your work? Sign in with ORCID and put your name on the claims that are yours.
Claim with ORCID
Reference health. See whether every reference in this work resolves to a known work and none has been retracted — and get a dated CiteStamped badge you can embed.
See reference health

What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(199709)10:3<173::aid-bdm261>3.0.co;2-6openalex-extracted
On the Importance of Random Error in the Study of Probability Judgment. Part II: Applying the Stochastic Judgment Model to Detect Systematic Trends
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119138341.ch12openalex-extracted
Forecast Decisions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.2291openalex-extracted
Making the same mistake all over again: CEO overconfidence and corporate resistance to corrective feedback
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3138openalex-extracted
Biased interpretation of performance feedback: The role of CEO overconfidence
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-30085-1_6openalex-extracted
Talent Spotting in Crowd Prediction
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-013-5401-4openalex-extracted
Forecast aggregation via recalibration
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(77)90001-0openalex-extracted
Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(89)90055-1openalex-extracted
Accuracy and confidence in group judgment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(90)90005-topenalex-extracted
Revision, Weighting, and commitment in consensus group judgment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.007openalex-extracted
Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25years
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.04.006openalex-extracted
Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.06.001openalex-extracted
Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.11.005openalex-extracted
Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.08.002openalex-extracted
The strategy of professional forecasting☆
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.05.001openalex-extracted
Collective estimation: Accuracy, expertise, and extroversion as sources of intra-group influence
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2011.12.006openalex-extracted
Why groups perform better than individuals at quantitative judgment tasks: Group-to-individual transfer as an alternative to differential weighting
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2012.08.003openalex-extracted
On the relative importance of linear model and human judge(s) in combined forecasting
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511779398openalex-extracted
Probability
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500006094openalex-extracted
A universal method for evaluating the quality of aggregators
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008597openalex-extracted
Forecasting forecaster accuracy: Contributions of past performance and individual differences
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.80.4.443openalex-extracted
A comparison of strategies for reducing interval overconfidence in group judgments.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.48.6.1467openalex-extracted
Pooling of unshared information in group decision making: Biased information sampling during discussion.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.63.3.426openalex-extracted
Discovery of hidden profiles by decision-making groups: Solving a problem versus making a judgment.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.65.5.959openalex-extracted
The common knowledge effect: Information sharing and group judgment.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.121.1.149openalex-extracted
Proper analysis of the accuracy of group judgments.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.112.2.494openalex-extracted
The Robust Beauty of Majority Rules in Group Decisions.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.115.2.502openalex-extracted
The trouble with overconfidence.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.30.2.299openalex-extracted
Overconfidence in Interval Estimates.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/a0036677openalex-extracted
The wisdom of select crowds.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/xap0000040openalex-extracted
The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0001340openalex-extracted
The wisdom of many in few: Finding individuals who are as wise as the crowd.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1037/xlm0000947openalex-extracted
G-I transfer in multicue judgment tasks: Discussion improves group members’ knowledge about target relations.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/075450a0openalex-extracted
Vox Populi
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1057/s41274-016-0103-5openalex-extracted
The overconfident newsvendor
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0403723101openalex-extracted
Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1008636108openalex-extracted
How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2015.1100621openalex-extracted
Modeling Probability Forecasts via Information Diversity
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1986.10509492openalex-extracted
Combining Economic Forecasts
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt023openalex-extracted
Managerial Miscalibration*
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfn023openalex-extracted
An Experimental Test of the Impact of Overconfidence and Gender on Trading Activity
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00078openalex-extracted
Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679x.00015openalex-extracted
The Inefficiency of the Mean Analyst Forecast as a Summary Forecast of Earnings
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937x.2005.00333.xopenalex-extracted
Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797620941840openalex-extracted
Enhancing the Wisdom of the Crowd With Cognitive-Process Diversity: The Benefits of Aggregating Intuitive and Analytical Judgments
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/104649640003100205openalex-extracted
The Effects of Extroversion on Influence in Ambiguous Group Tasks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/1088868311417243openalex-extracted
Twenty-Five Years of Hidden Profiles in Group Decision Making
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2014.0293openalex-extracted
Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2015.0315openalex-extracted
The Composition of Optimally Wise Crowds
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2016.0340openalex-extracted
Combining Interval Forecasts
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0459openalex-extracted
Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1382openalex-extracted
Demand Forecasting Behavior: System Neglect and Change Detection
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1441openalex-extracted
Optimal Forecasting Groups
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1715openalex-extracted
Overconfidence in Newsvendor Orders: An Experimental Study
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.1909openalex-extracted
Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2364openalex-extracted
Crowd Wisdom Relies on Agents’ Ability in Small Groups with a Voting Aggregation Rule
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2374openalex-extracted
Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2469openalex-extracted
Overconfident Competing Newsvendors
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2823openalex-extracted
The Contingent Wisdom of Dyads: When Discussion Enhances vs. Undermines the Accuracy of Collaborative Judgments
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2881openalex-extracted
Gender Composition and Group Confidence Judgment: The Perils of All-Male Groups
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2936openalex-extracted
Assessing Uncertainty from Point Forecasts
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3047openalex-extracted
Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information Is Shared
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2019.3294openalex-extracted
Harnessing the Wisdom of Crowds
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3688openalex-extracted
Elaborating or Aggregating? The Joint Effects of Group Decision-Making Structure and Systematic Errors on the Value of Group Interactions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3713openalex-extracted
Social Influence Undermines the Wisdom of the Crowd in Sequential Decision Making
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02009openalex-extracted
A Heuristic for Combining Correlated Experts When There Are Few Data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4102openalex-extracted
From Noise to Bias: Overconfidence in New Product Forecasting
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4648openalex-extracted
Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Weighted Averaging Based on Peer Predictions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2013.1213openalex-extracted
The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2021.2176openalex-extracted
Extremizing and Antiextremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2021.2224openalex-extracted
Regularized Aggregation of One-Off Probability Predictions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.40.3.609openalex-extracted
Sensitivity of Weights in Combining Forecasts
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0232058openalex-extracted
Using meta-predictions to identify experts in the crowd when past performance is unknown
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1135797openalex-extracted
Is Diversity (Un)Biased? Cross Functional Teams and Project Termination Decisions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3540864openalex-extracted
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1270458openalex-extracted
An Introduction to Multivariate Statistical Analysis
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3882openalex-snapshot
Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting
Editorial review for independent work. ICSAC — the Institute for Complexity Science and Advanced Computing — runs a structured editorial panel for researchers publishing outside journals, and publishes on CiteStamp rails. Submission is free and goes through ORCID: icsacinstitute.org/submit.