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Official Monthly Estimates of U.S. GDP Quarterly Growth Rates: A Cognitive Perspective

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4866724
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Bootstrap Methods
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Conservatism and consensus‐seeking among economic forecasters
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Estimating time variation in measurement error from data revisions: an application to backcasting and forecasting in dynamic models
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An Introduction to the Bootstrap
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So, What Are Cognitive Biases?
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Does business confidence matter for investment?
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Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?
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Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
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Product differentiation in the economic forecasting industry
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Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts
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Are preliminary announcements of the money stock rational forecasts?
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Bootstrap techniques for sensitivity analysis and model selection in building thermal performance analysis
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A review of possible effects of cognitive biases on interpretation of rule-based machine learning models
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Behavioral biases and cognitive reflection
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Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information – A review of the literature
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Bias in macroeconomic forecasts
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Clarifying Managerial Biases Using a Probabilistic Framework
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The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters
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Improving GDP measurement: A measurement-error perspective
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Multi-period portfolio choice and the intertemporal hedging demands for stocks and bonds: International evidence
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Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
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A progress report on the training of probability assessors
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The trouble with overconfidence.
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Conservatism in a simple probability inference task.
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Can GDP Measurement Be Further Improved? Data Revision and Reconciliation
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Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the United States
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/261603openalex-extracted
Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator
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Learning from Inflation Experiences *
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Do Investors Learn from Experience? Evidence from Frequent IPO Investors
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Prospect Theory and Stock Returns: An Empirical Test
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Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss
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Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved
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Speculation Duopoly with Agreement to Disagree: Can Overconfidence Survive the Market Test?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124openalex-extracted
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
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Behavioral Decision Theory
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/003355399555918openalex-extracted
Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts
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The past of predicting the future: A review of the multidisciplinary history of affective forecasting
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Testing Forecast Optimality Under Unknown Loss
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An Introduction to the Bootstrap
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The Two-Piece Normal, Binormal, or Double Gaussian Distribution: Its Origin and Rediscoveries
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Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)
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News or Noise? The Missing Link
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Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach
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Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis
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Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income, and Productivity
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1323openalex-extracted
Overconfidence by Bayesian-Rational Agents
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.20.9.1233openalex-extracted
Decision Analysis Expert Use
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Combining Expert Judgments: A Bayesian Approach
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Financial Data and the Skewed Generalized T Distribution
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1515/jso-2014-0006openalex-extracted
Team Reasoning and Intentional Cooperation for Mutual Benefit
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.17578/19-4-1openalex-extracted
Skewed Generalized Error Distribution of Financial Assets and Option Pricing
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1032598openalex-extracted
The History of National Accounting
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4739306openalex-extracted
Cognitive Biases and Their Impact on the Supply Chain Inventory Decisions: Theory and Example
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185openalex-extracted
Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2946656openalex-extracted
Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations
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Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Aggregates
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News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions
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Skewed Business Cycles
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Overreaction and Working Memory
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On the Rationality of Team Reasoning and Some of its Normative Implications
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The Neural Basis of Optimism and Pessimism
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Skewed Generalized Error Distribution of Financial Assets and Option Pricing
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Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.868970openalex-snapshot
The Dynamics of Overconfidence: Evidence from Stock Market Forecasters
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