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The Output Gap: Method Choice, Data Revisions, and Policy Implications

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6124186
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Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven‐country data set
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A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the ‘business cycle’
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The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap
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Machine learning for regularized survey forecast combination: Partially-egalitarian LASSO and its derivatives
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Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies
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A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series
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Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models
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Trend-cycle decomposition in the presence of large shocks
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A state–space approach to calculating the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition
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Detrending and business cycle facts
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Forecasting inflation
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A real-time data set for macroeconomists
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Chapter 4 Forecast Combinations
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Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter
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The Combination of Forecasts
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Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2020.1784747openalex-snapshot
Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/259438openalex-snapshot
Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/654451openalex-snapshot
Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac010openalex-snapshot
The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2354.00114openalex-snapshot
Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy With Unobservable Goals
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2009.00547.xopenalex-snapshot
Combining Forecasts from Nested Models*
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2007.00014.xopenalex-snapshot
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2007.00015.xopenalex-snapshot
Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/003465302760556422openalex-snapshot
The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/003465303322369768openalex-snapshot
The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00555openalex-snapshot
Real-Time Properties of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00691openalex-snapshot
Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00706openalex-snapshot
Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-025-00133-wopenalex-snapshot
Measuring the credit gap: a forecast combination approach
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1198/jbes.2009.07205openalex-snapshot
Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.5.31openalex-snapshot
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.4.964openalex-snapshot
Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.49.1.72openalex-snapshot
Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.21799/frbp.wp.2006.19openalex-snapshot
AN EVALUATION OF INFLATION FORECASTS FROM SURVEYS USING REAL-TIME DATA
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1884282openalex-snapshot
The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791openalex-snapshot
Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2344546openalex-snapshot
Experience with Forecasting Univariate Time Series and the Combination of Forecasts
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2534262openalex-snapshot
Can the Inflation of the 1970s be Explained?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2953682openalex-snapshot
Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w0708openalex-snapshot
Inflation, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w14322openalex-snapshot
Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts
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