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Species distribution models for invasive Eurasian watermilfoil highlight the importance of data quality and limitations of discrimination accuracy metrics

https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8002
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.6532openalex-snapshot
Ecological niche models display nonlinear relationships with abundance and demographic performance across the latitudinal distribution of Astragalus utahensis (Fabaceae)
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8002openalex-snapshot
Species distribution models for invasive Eurasian watermilfoil highlight the importance of data quality and limitations of discrimination accuracy metrics
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1311openalex-snapshot
Spatial heterogeneity in invasive species impacts at the landscape scale
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2302openalex-snapshot
Invasive species risk assessments need more consistent spatial abundance data
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Modeling Species Distribution and Change Using Random Forest
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Applied Spatial Data Analysis with R
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Ecological life histories of the three aquatic nuisance plants, Myriophyllum spicatum, Potamogeton crispus and Elodea canadensis
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-012-0380-0openalex-snapshot
Distribution models of invasive plants over-estimate potential impact
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-021-02500-zopenalex-snapshot
Abundance–suitability relationships for invasive species: Epiphyas postvittana as a case study
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-015-0303-4openalex-snapshot
Predicting abundance with presence-only models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-017-0565-0openalex-snapshot
Spatiotemporal distribution of an invasive insect in an urban landscape: introduction, establishment and impact
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquabot.2009.09.004openalex-snapshot
The effect of temperature, water level and burial depth on seed germination of Myriophyllum spicatum and Potamogeton malaianus
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.09.011openalex-snapshot
The effect of an aquatic invasive species (Eurasian watermilfoil) on lakefront property values
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.02.015openalex-snapshot
Evading invasives: How Eurasian watermilfoil affects the development of lake properties
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.11.010openalex-snapshot
Selecting pseudo-absence data for presence-only distribution modeling: How far should you stray from what you know?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.08.013openalex-snapshot
Invasive species distribution modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.02.025openalex-snapshot
Species distribution modelling—Effect of design and sample size of pseudo-absence observations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2012.03.022openalex-snapshot
Forest land cover continues to exacerbate freshwater acidification despite decline in sulphate emissions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2011.05.024openalex-snapshot
A broad framework to organize and compare ecological invasion impacts
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2010.03.002openalex-snapshot
Exploring the effects of quantity and location of pseudo-absences and sampling biases on the performance of distribution models with limited point occurrence data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138141openalex-snapshot
Regional measurements and spatial/temporal analysis of CDOM in 10,000+ optically variable Minnesota lakes using Landsat 8 imagery
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s0006-3207(00)00139-7openalex-snapshot
The practical value of modelling relative abundance of species for regional conservation planning: a case study
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/s0376892905002171openalex-snapshot
An evaluation of mapped species distribution models used for conservation planning
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/s0376892997000088openalex-snapshot
A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1003804612998openalex-snapshot
Loss of native aquatic plant species in a community dominated by Eurasian watermilfoil
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1010034312781openalex-snapshot
Impact: Toward a Framework for Understanding the Ecological Effects of Invaders
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.53openalex-snapshot
Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2000.00143.xopenalex-snapshot
On the relationship between niche and distribution
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0901639106openalex-snapshot
Niches, models, and climate change: Assessing the assumptions and uncertainties
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/07438140809354846openalex-snapshot
Predicting Eurasian watermilfoil invasions in Minnesota
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/600087openalex-snapshot
Abundance and the Environmental Niche: Environmental Suitability Estimated from Niche Models Predicts the Upper Limit of Local Abundance
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/gigascience/gix101openalex-snapshot
LAGOS-NE: a multi-scaled geospatial and temporal database of lake ecological context and water quality for thousands of US lakes
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.50.1.149openalex-snapshot
Photosynthesis in Eurasian Watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum L.)
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12184openalex-snapshot
Improving species distribution models: the value of data on abundance
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.13107openalex-snapshot
block CV : An r package for generating spatially or environmentally separated folds for k ‐fold cross‐validation of species distribution models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12368openalex-snapshot
Predicting regional densities from bird occurrence data: validation and effects of species traits in a M acaronesian I sland
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12589openalex-snapshot
Population dynamics affect the capacity of species distribution models to predict species abundance on a local scale
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00845openalex-snapshot
What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02125openalex-snapshot
Is there a correlation between abundance and environmental suitability derived from ecological niche modelling? A meta‐analysis
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04960openalex-snapshot
A standard protocol for reporting species distribution models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13468openalex-snapshot
Constraining invader dominance: Effects of repeated herbicidal management and environmental factors on curlyleaf pondweed dynamics in 50 Minnesota lakes
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12268openalex-snapshot
Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12820openalex-snapshot
Habitat suitability estimated by niche models is largely unrelated to species abundance
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13204openalex-snapshot
Deconstructing the abundance–suitability relationship in species distribution modelling
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2004.03764.xopenalex-snapshot
Presence‐absence versus presence‐only modelling methods for predicting bird habitat suitability
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2005.03957.xopenalex-snapshot
Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2005.04002.xopenalex-snapshot
Can models of presence‐absence be used to scale abundance? Two case studies considering extremes in life history
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2006.04700.xopenalex-snapshot
The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.xopenalex-snapshot
Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS)
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02589.xopenalex-snapshot
Accounting for multi‐scale spatial autocorrelation improves performance of invasive species distribution modelling (iSDM)
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.xopenalex-snapshot
Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01107.xopenalex-snapshot
Grinnellian and Eltonian niches and geographic distributions of species
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01772.xopenalex-snapshot
Accounting for dispersal and biotic interactions to disentangle the drivers of species distributions and their abundances
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00358.xopenalex-snapshot
AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00635.xopenalex-snapshot
Choice of predictor variables as a source of uncertainty in continental-scale species distribution modelling under climate change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00683.xopenalex-snapshot
Insights into the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as a discrimination measure in species distribution modelling
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07138.xopenalex-snapshot
A new method for dealing with residual spatial autocorrelation in species distribution models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2007.0906-7590.05171.xopenalex-snapshot
Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data: a review
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210x.2011.00141.xopenalex-snapshot
Comparative interpretation of count, presence–absence and point methods for species distribution models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210x.2011.00172.xopenalex-snapshot
Selecting pseudo‐absences for species distribution models: how, where and how many?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12029openalex-snapshot
A niche for biology in species distribution models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13402openalex-snapshot
Without quality presence–absence data, discrimination metrics such as TSS can be misleading measures of model performance
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13555openalex-snapshot
Improving species distribution models for invasive non‐native species with biologically informed pseudo‐absence selection
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13705openalex-snapshot
Evaluating presence‐only species distribution models with discrimination accuracy is uninformative for many applications
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159openalex-snapshot
Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6785-9-8openalex-snapshot
Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1201/b19708openalex-snapshot
Spatial Point Patterns
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.13020/cwqe-ge69openalex-snapshot
Complete Data and Analysis for: Niche models differentiate potential impacts of two aquatic invasive plant species on native macrophytes
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0071218openalex-snapshot
Novel Three-Step Pseudo-Absence Selection Technique for Improved Species Distribution Modelling
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077415openalex-snapshot
Commonly Rare and Rarely Common: Comparing Population Abundance of Invasive and Native Aquatic Species
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0112764openalex-snapshot
The Predictive Performance and Stability of Six Species Distribution Models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0193085openalex-snapshot
Can species distribution models really predict the expansion of invasive species?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1614/ipsm-d-13-00036.1openalex-snapshot
Forecasting the Vulnerability of Lakes to Aquatic Plant Invasions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1890/07-0539.1openalex-snapshot
RANDOM FORESTS FOR CLASSIFICATION IN ECOLOGY
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1890/08-0442.1openalex-snapshot
Managing the impact of invasive species: the value of knowing the density–impact curve
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1890/09-1639.1openalex-snapshot
Using ecological niche models to predict the abundance and impact of invasive species: application to the common carp
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(2000)010[1442:ptloew]2.0.co;2openalex-snapshot
PREDICTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF EURASIAN WATERMILFOIL PRESENCE IN LAKES, A MACROPHYTE MONITORING TOOL
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1890/140124openalex-snapshot
Recreational demand for clean water: evidence from geotagged photographs by visitors to lakes
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2017.00231openalex-snapshot
A Probability Co-Kriging Model to Account for Reporting Bias and Recognize Areas at High Risk for Zebra Mussels and Eurasian Watermilfoil Invasions in Minnesota
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3390/d12040162openalex-snapshot
Niche Models Differentiate Potential Impacts of Two Aquatic Invasive Plant Species on Native Macrophytes
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3390/d12100394openalex-snapshot
Prioritizing Management of Non-Native Eurasian Watermilfoil Using Species Occurrence and Abundance Predictions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1357openalex-snapshot
Combining environmental suitability and population abundances to evaluate the invasive potential of the tunicate Ciona intestinalis along the temperate South American coast
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4160openalex-snapshot
Combining occurrence and abundance distribution models for the conservation of the Great Bustard

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4685765openalex-extracted
Impact Study of a River Heat Pump to Decarbonise Urban District Heating and Promote the Resilience of Hydrosystems: What are the Challenges?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.4297openalex-snapshot
Improving species distribution forecasts by measuring and communicating uncertainty: An invasive species case study
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-024-03367-6openalex-snapshot
Artificial intelligence applied to big data reveals that lake invasions are predicted by human traffic and co-occurring invasions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11273-023-09957-wopenalex-snapshot
Using airborne thermal imaging to understand American Coot movement patterns in a hot spring refugium during winter
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquabot.2025.103953openalex-snapshot
Comparative analysis of the photosynthetic ecophysiology of Myriophyllum aquaticum and congeneric milfoils and invasion potential into the Midwestern United States
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114141openalex-snapshot
Habitat suitability and species distribution modelling in lake macrophyte research: A systematic review
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.nexus.2024.100325openalex-snapshot
River water heat pumps to decarbonise district heating and promote the resilience of hydrosystems: Technico-economic, environmental and sociological challenges
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-026-07027-3openalex-snapshot
Occurrence and environmental data for aquatic plants of Minnesota from 1999–2018
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-13838-yopenalex-snapshot
Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the Wilsonomyces carpophilus under multiple climate change scenarios
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1080/02705060.2024.2412157openalex-snapshot
Differential photosynthetic yield across a wide range of temperatures for Northern and invasive Watermilfoils
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.70171openalex-snapshot
Warming conditions reduce the impacts of an aquatic invasive macrophyte across a latitudinal gradient
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.70231openalex-snapshot
Forecasting the Invasion of Eurasian Watermilfoil ( Myriophyllum spicatum ) at the Northern Edge of Its North American Range
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2022-0109openalex-snapshot
Connecting habitat to species abundance: the role of light and temperature on the abundance of walleye in lakes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.827497openalex-snapshot
Ecological Niche Shifts Affect the Potential Invasive Risk of Rapistrum rugosum (L.) All. in China
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3390/insects14040316openalex-snapshot
Niche and Range Shifts of the Fall Webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) in Europe Imply Its Huge Invasion Potential in the Future
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3390/plants11111484openalex-snapshot
The Prediction of Distribution of the Invasive Fallopia Taxa in Slovakia
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