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Climate change, tree demography, and thermophilization in western US forests

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301754120
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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Demographic drivers of functional composition dynamics
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The package “adehabitat” for the R software: A tool for the analysis of space and habitat use by animals
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Moderate warming over the past 25 years has already reorganized stream invertebrate communities
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Niche syndromes, species extinction risks, and management under climate change
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Biotic homogenization: a few winners replacing many losers in the next mass extinction
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Causality
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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
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Climate-driven changes in the composition of New World plant communities
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Global buffering of temperatures under forest canopies
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Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas
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TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958–2015
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Wildfires and climate change push low-elevation forests across a critical climate threshold for tree regeneration
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Climate and plant community diversity in space and time
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2116691118openalex-snapshot
North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301754120openalex-snapshot
Climate change, tree demography, and thermophilization in western US forests
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12426openalex-snapshot
Forest disturbance accelerates thermophilization of understory plant communities
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13653openalex-snapshot
Rapid thermophilization of understorey plant communities in a 9 year‐long temperate forest experiment
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A new framework for investigating biotic homogenization and exploring future trajectories: oceanic island plant and bird assemblages as a case study
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Compositional shifts in C osta R ican forests due to climate‐driven species migrations
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Fine‐scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming
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Lagged and dormant season climate better predict plant vital rates than climate during the growing season
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Disturbances amplify tree community responses to climate change in the temperate–boreal ecotone
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Biogeography of fire regimes in western U.S. conifer forests: A trait‐based approach
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The climatic debt is growing in the understorey of temperate forests: Stand characteristics matter
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Approximate Bayesian Inference for Latent Gaussian models by using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations
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An Explicit Link between Gaussian Fields and Gaussian Markov Random Fields: The Stochastic Partial Differential Equation Approach
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Where is positional uncertainty a problem for species distribution modelling?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2002.tb02087.xopenalex-snapshot
Equations for potential annual direct incident radiation and heat load
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-4571.2007.00013.xopenalex-snapshot
Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.13477openalex-snapshot
Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf7671openalex-snapshot
The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba6880openalex-snapshot
Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0254.1openalex-snapshot
Greater Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Intensify Western U.S. Droughts, Wildfire Severity, and Sierra Nevada Tree Mortality
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315370279openalex-snapshot
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inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.0060325openalex-snapshot
Towards an Integrated Framework for Assessing the Vulnerability of Species to Climate Change
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v063.i19openalex-snapshot
Bayesian Spatial Modelling withR-INLA
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2737/srs-gtr-80openalex-snapshot
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inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.32614/rj-2018-009openalex-snapshot
Simple Features for R: Standardized Support for Spatial Vector Data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000529018openalex-snapshot
North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-139381openalex-snapshot
Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.6078/d1rx4xopenalex-snapshot
Data and code from: Climate change, tree demography, and thermophilization in western US forests

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4584237openalex-extracted
Impacts of Mega Drought in Fire-Prone Montane Forests and Implications for Forest Management
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4788821openalex-extracted
Impacts of Mega Drought in Fire-Prone Montane Forests and Implications for Forest Management
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08010openalex-snapshot
Lagged responses in the composition of small mammal communities to a century of climate change
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08294openalex-snapshot
Long unobserved and recently discovered: towards a better understanding of protected‐area species dynamics using curated species lists
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70283openalex-snapshot
Thermophilization over space but not time among communities of ground‐dwelling arthropods in a desert city
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-026-03879-3openalex-snapshot
A combined approach of multi-factor assessment for three ascidians invasion
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110143openalex-snapshot
Forest demography depends on stand structure, functional traits, and climate in the eastern region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111070openalex-snapshot
Protected area edges host more warm-dwelling bird communities than the rest of the landscape
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122010openalex-snapshot
Impacts of mega drought in fire-prone montane forests and implications for forest management
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122051openalex-snapshot
Forest bees benefit from compositionally diverse broadleaf canopies
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2026.123768openalex-snapshot
Risk of co-evolved pest damage to non-native Douglas-fir plantations
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.pld.2026.07.013openalex-snapshot
Disturbances amplify species turnover and thermophilization in eastern U.S. forest communities
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02552-zopenalex-snapshot
Rapid shifts in grassland communities driven by climate change
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-025-02956-5openalex-snapshot
Tree diversity is changing across tropical Andean and Amazonian forests in response to global change
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2533434123openalex-snapshot
A few key species drive community thermophilization under experimental warming
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad86cfopenalex-snapshot
Rising forest exposure and fire severity from climate warming amplify tree cover losses from wildfire in California
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cpaf078openalex-snapshot
Climate-linked cascading disturbances drive conifer forest decline in a boreal–temperate ecotone: evidence from Kunashir Island (Northwest Pacific)
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2024.0625openalex-snapshot
Patterns of early post-disturbance reorganization in Central European forests
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2023.0008openalex-snapshot
Navigating ecological novelty towards planetary stewardship: challenges and opportunities in biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.70079openalex-snapshot
Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change
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Disequilibrium in plant distributions: Challenges and approaches for species distribution models
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.70115openalex-snapshot
Competition contributes to quantitative mismatches between plant fitness and occurrence along environmental gradients
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Legacy effects under an emerging novel disturbance regime: A memory‐based framework to quantify tree growth responses
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.70439openalex-snapshot
Identifying future climate refugia in central European mountain forests
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70004openalex-snapshot
Acclimation Unifies the Scaling of Carbon Assimilation Across Climate Gradients and Levels of Organisation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70314openalex-snapshot
Linking Community‐Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17555openalex-snapshot
Hotter Temperatures Reduce the Diversity and Alter the Composition of Woody Plants in an Amazonian Forest
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.71063openalex-snapshot
Thermophilization: Concepts, Methods, and Implications of Changes in Community Composition due to Global Warming
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.71124openalex-snapshot
Forest Densification and Pollution Rival Climate in Driving US Tree Demographic Change
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70223openalex-snapshot
A Bias‐Robust Framework for Quantifying Community Responses to the Climate Change Using the Occurrence Data
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70349openalex-snapshot
Ecological Filters Shape Community Thermophilisation Under Climate Change
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/jvs.70168openalex-snapshot
Herbaceous Plants in Forest Ecosystems: One Hundred Fundamental and Applied Questions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/nph.71223openalex-snapshot
Despite rapid warming, seed production is not leading poleward migration in North American and European forests
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/pce.14778openalex-snapshot
Variable thermal plasticity of leaf functional traits in Andean tropical montane forests
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/rec.70390openalex-snapshot
Redefining ecosystem integrity for an Anthropocene biosphere: a process‐ and lineage‐based framework for restoration
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.22201/fc.25942158e.2025.1.902openalex-snapshot
USING BIOCLIMATIC INDICATORS TO ANALYSE THE PRESENCE OF CLIMATIC MISMATCHES AMONGST LOCAL AMPHIBIAN ASSEMBLAGES OF AMERICA
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Persistent climate maladaptation decreases performance of a keystone tree species ( Quercus lobata )
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.64898/2026.04.28.721369openalex-snapshot
Thermophilization, climatic debt, and consequent declines in primary productivity
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Primary productivity declines when species composition and climate are mismatched
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