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Historical evidence for larger government spending multipliers in uncertain times than in slumps

https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13068
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1079openalex-snapshot
What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2006.12.006openalex-snapshot
Tentative evidence of tax foresight
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2010.04.004openalex-snapshot
Monetary–fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.01.032openalex-snapshot
News implied volatility and disaster concerns
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.02.005openalex-snapshot
Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.07.002openalex-snapshot
Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.07.004openalex-snapshot
Signals from the government: Policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104513openalex-snapshot
Government spending multipliers in (un)certain times
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2020.06.005openalex-snapshot
Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000281openalex-snapshot
BUSINESS UNCERTAINTY AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF FISCAL POLICY IN GERMANY
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.2013.806694openalex-snapshot
A Robust Test for Weak Instruments
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/261619openalex-snapshot
Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/696277openalex-snapshot
Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjq002openalex-snapshot
Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes *
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjq008openalex-snapshot
Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing*
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt027openalex-snapshot
Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation *
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024openalex-snapshot
Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty*
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx030openalex-snapshot
The Analytics of SVARs: A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-07-2020-0334openalex-snapshot
Uncertainty and nonlinear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: a SEIVAR-based analysis
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12263openalex-snapshot
Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News from a Non‐linear World
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12304openalex-snapshot
Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12593openalex-snapshot
Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02355.xopenalex-snapshot
Using Stock Returns to Identify Government Spending Shocks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02413.xopenalex-snapshot
The Effects of Government Purchases Shocks: Review and Estimates for the EU
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2011.00272.xopenalex-snapshot
Fiscal policy, pricing frictions and monetary accommodation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00532.xopenalex-snapshot
A Historical Analysis of the Taylor Curve
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12558openalex-snapshot
Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending: The Great Recession Was (Really) Different
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12562openalex-snapshot
Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302320935043openalex-snapshot
An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00706openalex-snapshot
Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x1501500113openalex-snapshot
A Robust Test for Weak Instruments in Stata
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828053828518openalex-snapshot
Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.2.35openalex-snapshot
Fiscal Policy in a Model With Financial Frictions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.3.129openalex-snapshot
Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.1.27openalex-snapshot
Risk Shocks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20131193openalex-snapshot
Measuring Uncertainty
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.49.3.673openalex-snapshot
Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.28.2.153openalex-snapshot
Fluctuations in Uncertainty
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.2.89openalex-snapshot
Ten Years After the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170131openalex-snapshot
Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.4.2.1openalex-snapshot
Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3156287openalex-snapshot
Patterns of Panic: Financial Crisis Language in Historical Newspapers
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3602980openalex-snapshot
Fiscal Policy and Uncertainty
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1879518openalex-snapshot
Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1882797openalex-snapshot
A Year After the Panic of 1907
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1885568openalex-snapshot
Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/1913610openalex-snapshot
A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/2551473openalex-snapshot
History of the American Economy.
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w16380openalex-snapshot
The End of the Great Depression 1939-41: Policy Contributions and Fiscal Multipliers
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w16790openalex-snapshot
Historical Oil Shocks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w20179openalex-snapshot
Defense Government Spending Is Contractionary, Civilian Government Spending Is Expansionary
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w21803openalex-snapshot
Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w3307openalex-snapshot
Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w8992openalex-snapshot
U.S. Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta10927openalex-snapshot
Really Uncertain Business Cycles
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta17813openalex-snapshot
Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta6248openalex-snapshot
The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta8337openalex-snapshot
Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3982/qe714openalex-snapshot
Precautionary saving and aggregate demand
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226018584.001.0001openalex-snapshot
Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4668254openalex-extracted
Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion. An Analysis for the Italian Regions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/for.3234openalex-snapshot
Time‐Varying US Government Spending Anticipation in Real Time
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2911openalex-snapshot
Effect of financial sector development and FDI inflow on employment rate in South Asia: New empirical evidence from ARDL approach
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106370openalex-snapshot
The impact of public consumption and investment in the euro area during periods of high and normal uncertainty
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107012openalex-snapshot
Government spending multipliers and financial fragility in Italy
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102821openalex-snapshot
Fiscal or monetary? Efficacy of regulatory regimes and energy trilemma of the inflation reduction act (IRA)
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00394openalex-snapshot
Are the effects of monetary policy larger in recessions? A reconciliation of the evidence
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105726openalex-snapshot
Local projections in unstable environments
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104559openalex-snapshot
Fiscal policy and uncertainty
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103728openalex-snapshot
Fiscal multipliers, trend inflation, and endogenous price stickiness: Evidence from the U.S.
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2024.08.012openalex-snapshot
Fiscal multipliers in recession and expansion. An analysis for the Italian regions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747226100213openalex-snapshot
Does economic policy uncertainty affect public pension spending? Evidence from Japan
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1108/reps-02-2022-0020openalex-snapshot
Social spending and chronic unemployment: evidence from OECD countries
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1108/sef-04-2024-0246openalex-snapshot
At the crossroads of inflation: analyzing Central Bank responses in noneconomic crises
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Review of periodical literature for 2022: (v) 1850–1945
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Review of periodical literature for 2023: (v) 1850–1945
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/joes.70020openalex-snapshot
Empirical Literature on Fiscal Multipliers: A Bibliometric Approach, 2002–2023
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3846/bmee.2022.17389openalex-snapshot
AN UNSTOPPABLE AND NAVIGATING JOURNEY TOWARDS DEVELOPMENT REFORM IN COMPLEX FINANCIAL-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS: AN INTERVAL ANALYSIS OF GOVERNMENT EXPENSES (PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE)
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