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Forced and Internal Components of Winter Air Temperature Trends over North America during the past 50 Years: Mechanisms and Implications*

https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0304.1
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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

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The relative contributions of radiative forcing and internal climate variability to the late 20th Century winter drying of the Mediterranean region
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GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
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Robust features of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and its climate impacts
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Searching for analogues, how long must we wait?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1562openalex-snapshot
Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate
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Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1204875109openalex-snapshot
Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season
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Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change, 1900–2012
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Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries
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Reliability of regional climate model trends
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inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1126/science.270.5237.780openalex-snapshot
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Stochastic Characterization of Regional Circulation Patterns for Climate Model Diagnosis and Estimation of Local Precipitation
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The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions
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Identifying Signatures of Natural Climate Variability in Time Series of Global-Mean Surface Temperature: Methodology and Insights
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3420.1openalex-snapshot
Regional Precipitation Trends: Distinguishing Natural Variability from Anthropogenic Forcing
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1openalex-snapshot
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
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NOAA's Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis
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inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00548.1openalex-snapshot
Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00839.1openalex-snapshot
Internal Variability in Projections of Twenty-First-Century Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Role of the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00218.1openalex-snapshot
Seasonal Climate Variability and Change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States
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Projecting North American Climate over the Next 50 Years: Uncertainty due to Internal Variability*
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00111.1openalex-snapshot
Dynamical Adjustment of the Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature Field: Methodology and Application to Observations
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Quantifying the Role of Internal Climate Variability in Future Climate Trends
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Western Europe is warming much faster than expected
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What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

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Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties
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Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall
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Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Different Regions Leads to Contrasting Northern Hemisphere Impacts
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Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability
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Dynamical Core in Atmospheric Model Does Matter in the Simulation of Arctic Climate
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Surface temperature variability in climate models with large and small internal climate variability
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Multiperspective view of the 1976 drought–heatwave event and its changing likelihood
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Hydroclimatic trends during 1950–2018 over global land
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Single model initial-condition large ensembles
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The Value of Initial Condition Large Ensembles to Robust Adaptation Decision‐Making
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2020ef001634openalex-snapshot
Detectability of Artificial Ocean Alkalinization and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection in MPI‐ESM
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2020ef001854openalex-snapshot
“Certain Uncertainty: The Role of Internal Climate Variability in Projections of Regional Climate Change and Risk Management”
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl087585openalex-snapshot
Internal Variability Dominates Over Externally Forced Ocean Circulation Changes Seen Through CFCs
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl089325openalex-snapshot
Poleward Shift of Northern Subtropics in Winter: Time of Emergence of Zonal Versus Regional Signals
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl092026openalex-snapshot
Using Large Ensembles to Identify Regions of Systematic Biases in Moderate‐to‐Heavy Daily Precipitation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl095396openalex-snapshot
On the Detection of COVID‐Driven Changes in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl095465openalex-snapshot
Winter Warming in North America Induced by Urbanization in China
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021jd035340openalex-snapshot
Impact of Internal Climate Variability on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature Trends Over Eurasia in the CESM1 Large Ensemble
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021jd036044openalex-snapshot
When Will Humanity Notice Its Influence on Atmospheric Rivers?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021ms002464openalex-snapshot
Detecting Climate Signals Using Explainable AI With Single‐Forcing Large Ensembles
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021ms002565openalex-snapshot
Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR Ensemble of Extended Historical Simulations
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021ms002640openalex-snapshot
Attribution of Snowpack Errors to Simulated Temperature and Precipitation in E3SMv1 Over the Contiguous United States
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002790openalex-snapshot
Atmospheric Contributions to the Reversal of Surface Temperature Anomalies Between Early and Late Winter Over Eurasia
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002963openalex-snapshot
Quantifying the Uncertainty Sources of Future Climate Projections and Narrowing Uncertainties With Bias Correction Techniques
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2022wr034326openalex-snapshot
Climate Driven Trends in Historical Extreme Low Streamflows on Four Continents
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003981openalex-snapshot
Changes in United States Summer Temperatures Revealed by Explainable Neural Networks
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef004252openalex-snapshot
Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl103431openalex-snapshot
The Importance of Accounting for the North Atlantic Oscillation When Applying Observational Constraints to European Climate Projections
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl103522openalex-snapshot
Localized Strong Warming and Humidification Over Winter Japan Tied to Sea Ice Retreat
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl105180openalex-snapshot
Arctic Warming and Eurasian Cooling: Weakening and Reemergence
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl106060openalex-snapshot
Internal Variability Increased Arctic Amplification During 1980–2022
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023jd039966openalex-snapshot
Changes of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability During the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age and Associated Causes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2023jd040638openalex-snapshot
Disentangling Forced Trends in the North Atlantic Jet From Natural Variability Using Deep Learning
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef005561openalex-snapshot
Soil Moisture Feedback Amplified the Earlier Onset of the Record‐Breaking Three‐Day Consecutive Heatwave in 2023 in North China
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef005615openalex-snapshot
Advancing the Reliability of Future Hydrological Projections in a Snow‐Dominated Alpine Watershed: Integrating Uncertainty Decomposition and CycleGAN Bias Correction
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl108982openalex-snapshot
Anthropogenic Impacts on Amplified Midlatitude European Summer Warming and Rapid Increase of Heatwaves in Recent Decades
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl111429openalex-snapshot
Internal Variability Dominated the Extreme Cold Wave Over North America in December 2022
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl111878openalex-snapshot
Internal Wind Driven Ocean Circulation Variability Delays the Time of Emergence of Externally Forced Sea Surface Temperature Trends
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl113540openalex-snapshot
Linking European Temperature Variations to Atmospheric Circulation With a Neural Network: A Pilot Study in a Climate Model
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl114258openalex-snapshot
Dynamic Contributions to Recent Observed Wintertime Precipitation Trends in Mediterranean‐Type Climate Regions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024jd042310openalex-snapshot
South European Heatwaves and Their Impacts on the Power System in 2022
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038160openalex-snapshot
Designing Resilient Multipurpose Reservoir Operation Policies in Presence of Internal Climate Variability
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05256-8openalex-snapshot
The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37847-5openalex-snapshot
Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2openalex-snapshot
Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07985-xopenalex-snapshot
Jet stream controls on European climate and agriculture since 1300 ce
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97615-7openalex-snapshot
Future intensification of extreme Aleutian low events and their climate impacts
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0111-7openalex-snapshot
Linking midlatitudes eddy heat flux trends and polar amplification
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00389-0openalex-snapshot
Importance of internal variability for climate model assessment
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00489-xopenalex-snapshot
Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00648-8openalex-snapshot
Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00686-2openalex-snapshot
Thermodynamic effect dictates influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Eurasia winter temperature
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00759-2openalex-snapshot
Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00828-6openalex-snapshot
Anthropogenic forcing intensified internally driven concurrent heatwaves in August 2022 across the Northern Hemisphere
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00886-wopenalex-snapshot
Attribution of a record-breaking cold event in the historically warmest year of 2023 and assessing future risks
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01043-7openalex-snapshot
Disentangling anthropogenic and dynamic contributions to recent ocean warming
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01208-4openalex-snapshot
Non-linear dynamical approaches for characterizing multi-sector climate impacts under irreducible uncertainty
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01246-yopenalex-snapshot
Using artificial intelligence to identify CMIP6 models from daily SLP maps
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7openalex-snapshot
Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01096-7openalex-snapshot
Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest USA and amplified over Western Europe
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01332-8openalex-snapshot
Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01582-6openalex-snapshot
Significant contribution of internal variability to recent Barents–Kara sea ice loss in winter
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02629-yopenalex-snapshot
Observed warming of cold extremes is not captured with a fixed threshold definition
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s44260-025-00048-wopenalex-snapshot
Network science disentangles internal climate variability in global spatial dependence structures
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108124119openalex-snapshot
Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2111875118openalex-snapshot
Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2202393119openalex-snapshot
Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2415786122openalex-snapshot
A method for unsupervised learning of coherent spatiotemporal patterns in multiscale data
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2021.1879726openalex-snapshot
Projected Trends of Wintertime North American Surface Mean and Extreme Temperatures over the Next Half-century in Two Generations of Canadian Earth System Models
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055001openalex-snapshot
Uncertainty in future agro-climate projections in the United States and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9152openalex-snapshot
Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab76ddopenalex-snapshot
Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7b98openalex-snapshot
Current chance of unprecedented monsoon rainfall over India using dynamical ensemble simulations
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d02openalex-snapshot
Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab86f2openalex-snapshot
Late 1980s abrupt cold season temperature change in Europe consistent with circulation variability and long-term warming
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb397openalex-snapshot
Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd586openalex-snapshot
Evolution of the East Asian winter land temperature trends during 1961–2018: role of internal variability and external forcing
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd6a9openalex-snapshot
The signature of internal variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe0ecopenalex-snapshot
Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fbopenalex-snapshot
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac10ddopenalex-snapshot
Changes in precipitation variability across time scales in multiple global climate model large ensembles
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7734openalex-snapshot
Instrumental agreement and retrospective analysis of trends in precipitation extremes in the French Mediterranean Region
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad34e6openalex-snapshot
Spatiotemporal characteristics of the time of emergence for anthropogenic tropospheric temperature changes based on the CMIP6 multi-model results
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3e8fopenalex-snapshot
Quantify uncertainty in historical simulation and future projection of surface wind speed over global land and ocean
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad560dopenalex-snapshot
Attribution of drought trends on the Mongolian Plateau over the past decades
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adae22openalex-snapshot
Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies: the case of winter 2020/2021
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adc293openalex-snapshot
Attribution of multidecadal summer temperature variations over Eurasia
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/add1f8openalex-snapshot
Interdecadal Pacific oscillation phase dominants near-term global monsoon precipitation changes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae198bopenalex-snapshot
Dynamical adjustment reveals spatial patterns of wetting and drying in European winter precipitation
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae6fd1openalex-snapshot
Attribution of the record-breaking February 2022 compound wet and cold event over Southern China
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae05f6openalex-snapshot
Climate models show colorado drying sooner and with greater certainty east of the continental divide
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae67e6openalex-snapshot
Assessment of externally forced tropical Pacific SST patterns: evaluation of statistical extraction methods using multi‐model large ensembles
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/accf30openalex-snapshot
Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssb/qkaf067openalex-snapshot
DecoR : deconfounding time series with robust regression
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2019.0013openalex-snapshot
Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12834openalex-snapshot
Trends in Raindrop Kinetic Energy with Modeled Climate Warming in the Lake Tahoe Basin
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