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The Predictive Power of the Term Spread and Financial Variables for Economic Activity Across Countries

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What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1255(199711/12)12:6<701::aid-jae456>3.0.co;2-9openalex-extracted

Are financial spreads useful indicators of future inflation and output growth in EU countries?

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(94)90017-5openalex-extracted

International term structures and real economic growth

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405x(88)90073-6openalex-extracted

The real term structure and consumption growth

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.06.005openalex-extracted

Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.005openalex-extracted

Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.08.006openalex-extracted

Yield curve interactions with the macroeconomic factors during global financial crisis among Asian markets

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2018.e00104openalex-extracted

A Taylor Rule for EU members. Does one rule fit to all EU member needs?

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.01.023openalex-extracted

Synchronization of cycles

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102800openalex-extracted

Forecasting real activity using cross-sectoral stock market information

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2017.06.001openalex-extracted

The Term Structure of Credit Spreads and Business Cycle in Japan

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103258openalex-extracted

Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2022.01.001openalex-extracted

Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s0014-2921(96)00050-5openalex-extracted

The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-022-00170-yopenalex-extracted

Measuring Financial Conditions using Equal Weights Combination

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-022-00177-5openalex-extracted

Text-Based Recession Probabilities

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa019openalex-extracted

U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2010.00617.xopenalex-extracted

Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy*

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2005.00159.xopenalex-extracted

Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?*

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb02673.xopenalex-extracted

Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb02674.xopenalex-extracted

The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/003465303322369768openalex-extracted

The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/jeea.2009.7.4.786openalex-extracted

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161923openalex-extracted

Vulnerable Growth

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.41.3.788openalex-extracted

Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2002.0040openalex-extracted

A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2006.07openalex-extracted

The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2000.684openalex-extracted

The Use and Abuse of "Real-Time" Data in Economic Forecasting

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.249965openalex-extracted

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4299623openalex-extracted

Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4493101openalex-extracted

Term Premium and Bank Lending

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2307/3867439openalex-extracted

The Use of Financial Spreads as Indicator Variables: Evidence for the United Kingdom and Germany

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2006-16openalex-extracted

The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2469/dig.v28.n3.308openalex-extracted

Predicting Real Growth and Inflation with the Yield Spread

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v45.n5.38openalex-extracted

Forecasts of Economic Growth from the Bond and Stock Markets

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w12560openalex-extracted

International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w16150openalex-extracted

Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w30737openalex-extracted

Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.58567/eal04010004openalex-extracted

Predicting Recessions and Information About Yield Curves and Stock Markets in Japan

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.06.010openalex-snapshot

High-Frequency Monitoring of Growth-at-Risk

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.07.031openalex-snapshot

The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/654119openalex-snapshot

New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/003465303322369777openalex-snapshot

How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103416openalex-snapshot

Macroeconomic environment and the future performance of loans: Evidence from three peer-to-peer platforms

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4832929openalex-snapshot

What Makes Term Spreads So Prescient?

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4891880openalex-snapshot

What Makes Term Spreads so Prescient?

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