On the public citation graph

Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?

https://doi.org/10.3386/w30737
0 signed · 55 inferred · view as graph

Inferred edges come from two machine sources: sweeps of open repository metadata (mostly SSRN and Zenodo), and a bulk OpenAlex citation snapshot. Every row below is labelled with the one it came from. Neither is a complete citation index — absence here is not evidence of absence.

Is this your work? Sign in with ORCID and put your name on the claims that are yours.
Claim with ORCID
Reference health. See whether every reference in this work resolves to a known work and none has been retracted — and get a dated CiteStamped badge you can embed.
See reference health

What this work says

Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.

inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1158(199807)3:3<195::aid-ijfe81>3.0.co;2-mopenalex-snapshot
Does the term structure predict recessions? The international evidence
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-007-9077-xopenalex-snapshot
The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(94)90017-5openalex-snapshot
International term structures and real economic growth
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405x(88)90073-6openalex-snapshot
The real term structure and consumption growth
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2007.05.026openalex-snapshot
Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875–1997
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.09.018openalex-snapshot
Economic policy uncertainty, financial markets and probability of US recessions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102116openalex-snapshot
Some international evidence on the causal impact of the yield curve
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.06.005openalex-snapshot
Do asset price drops foreshadow recessions?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.06.017openalex-snapshot
Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.01.032openalex-snapshot
What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2006.05.023openalex-snapshot
Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.08.005openalex-snapshot
Predicting severe simultaneous recessions using yield spreads as leading indicators
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103258openalex-snapshot
Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2003.08.007openalex-snapshot
The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2022.01.001openalex-snapshot
Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1016/s0165-1765(02)00128-3openalex-snapshot
Predicting a recession: evidence from the yield curve in the presence of structural breaks
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-019-00074-4openalex-snapshot
The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198x.2019.1625617openalex-snapshot
The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator: A Less Distorted Mirror
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1086/654119openalex-snapshot
New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa019openalex-snapshot
U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/fima.12256openalex-snapshot
Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12064openalex-snapshot
The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2006.00456.xopenalex-snapshot
How Stable is the Forecasting Performance of the Yield Curve for Output Growth?*
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb02674.xopenalex-snapshot
The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13003openalex-snapshot
Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557320openalex-snapshot
Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.1.182openalex-snapshot
The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Growth: Long-Run Evidence, 1875–1997
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102753410444openalex-snapshot
Comparing Predictive Accuracy
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1198/jbes.2009.07213openalex-snapshot
Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828053828518openalex-snapshot
Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.1739openalex-snapshot
Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2006.07openalex-snapshot
The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2018.055openalex-snapshot
The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator: A Less Distorted Mirror
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.17863/cam.27487openalex-snapshot
Compilation, Revision and Updating of the Global VAR (GVAR) Database, 1979Q2-2016Q4
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2008.26openalex-snapshot
Net Exports’ Recent (and Surprising?) Contribution to GDP Growth
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.125508openalex-snapshot
Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1731787openalex-snapshot
What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.646126openalex-snapshot
Foreign Direct Investment and the Domestic Capital Stock
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2007-16openalex-snapshot
Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v45.n5.38openalex-snapshot
Forecasts of Economic Growth from the Bond and Stock Markets
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w11075openalex-snapshot
Foreign Direct Investment and the Domestic Capital Stock
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w11077openalex-snapshot
Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w21722openalex-snapshot
US Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w25397openalex-snapshot
Liquidity and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3386/w5379openalex-snapshot
Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3905/jfi.1991.692342openalex-snapshot
The Term Structure and World Economic Growth
inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta17813openalex-snapshot
Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses

What points at this work

Incoming claims: where this work appears in other papers’ reference lists and arguments.

inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4832929openalex-extracted
What Makes Term Spreads So Prescient?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4872636openalex-extracted
The Predictive Power of the Term Spread and Financial Variables for Economic Activity Across Countries
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-024-00631-8openalex-snapshot
Loan loss provisions and the deposit rates yield curve at US banks
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2023-0100openalex-snapshot
Monetary Policy and Growth at Risk: The Role of Financial Conditions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4891880openalex-snapshot
What Makes Term Spreads so Prescient?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5198217openalex-snapshot
Navigating Economic Downturns: Insights from Survey-Based Recession Indicators
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2298/pan230217018aopenalex-snapshot
The yield curve as a leading indicator of recession: Austrian economics insights
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3386/w32084openalex-snapshot
The Predictive Power of the Term Spread and Financial Variables for Economic Activity across Countries
Editorial review for independent work. ICSAC — the Institute for Complexity Science and Advanced Computing — runs a structured editorial panel for researchers publishing outside journals, and publishes on CiteStamp rails. Submission is free and goes through ORCID: icsacinstitute.org/submit.