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The Comovement of Voter Preferences: Insights from U.S. Presidential Election Prediction Markets Beyond Polls
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Outgoing claims: the papers this work cites, builds on, or argues with.
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News-Driven Uncertainty Fluctuations
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Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods
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Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles
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Inequality Aversion, Populism, and the Backlash against Globalization
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Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice
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The Promise of Prediction Markets
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Election Polls—A Survey, A Critique, and Proposals
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Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections
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Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions
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Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure
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Political Institutions and Policy Choices: Evidence from the United States
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Econometrics and Presidential Elections
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Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
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Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections
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