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Errors in probabilistic reasoning and judgment biases

https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.hesbe.2018.11.002
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Subjective Bayesian beliefs
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Choice among bets and revision of opinion
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Conservatism as a function of bag composition
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An explanation of conservatism in the bookbag-and-pokerchips situation
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Effects of diagnosticity and prior odds on conservatism in a bookbag-and-pokerchip situation
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Averaging versus multiplying combination rules of inference judgment
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The influence of order of presentation and characteristics of the datagenerator on opinion revision
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Proportionality and sample size as factors in intuitive statistical judgement
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The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments
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Statistical judgement: A further test of the representativeness construct
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Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness
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The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences
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The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
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The effects of base rates and individuating information on judgments about another person
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Confidence and decision speed in the revision of opinion
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Intuitive statistical inferences about diffuse hypotheses
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Subjective sampling distributions and conservatism
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The influence of prior probabilities on information seeking and decision-making
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Sample proportions and subjective probability revisions
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Bayesian predictions of faculty judgments of graduate school success
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Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment
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Experiments in the laboratory and the real world
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A comparative study of differences in subjective likelihood estimates made by individuals, interacting groups, Delphi groups, and nominal groups
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The effect of Bayesian feedback on learning in an odds estimation task
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Inferences based on nondiagnostic information
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The role of sample size in sample evaluation
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Testing bayes rule and the representativeness heuristic: Some experimental evidence
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Understanding the effects of sample size on the variability of the mean
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The intentional mind and the hot hand: Perceiving intentions makes streaks seem likely to continue
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A pessimistic view of optimistic belief updating
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Optimistic update bias holds firm: Three tests of robustness following Shah et al.
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How Dopamine Enhances an Optimism Bias in Humans
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Confirmation bias with motivated beliefs
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Belief updating and the demand for information
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An update on Bayesian updating
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Biased probability judgment: Evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample
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Does self-relevance affect information processing? Experimental evidence on the response to performance and non-performance feedback
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An unlucky feeling: Overconfidence and noisy feedback
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Using methods from machine learning to evaluate behavioral models of choice under risk and ambiguity
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Processing consistency in non-Bayesian inference
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Optimistic belief updating despite inclusion of positive events
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The role of the neural reward circuitry in self-referential optimistic belief updates
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Twenty years of “hot hand” research: Review and critique
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Core systems of number
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A violation of the monotonicity axiom: experimental evidence on the conjunction fallacy
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A model of investor sentiment1We are grateful to the NSF for financial support, and to Oliver Blanchard, Alon Brav, John Campbell (a referee), John Cochrane, Edward Glaeser, J.B. Heaton, Danny Kahneman, David Laibson, Owen Lamont, Drazen Prelec, Jay Ritter (a referee), Ken Singleton, Dick Thaler,…
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Depression is related to an absence of optimistically biased belief updating about future life events
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Optimistic update bias increases in older age
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The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges
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Do Asset Market Prices Reflect Traders' Judgment Biases?
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How Do People Take into Account Weight, Strength and Quality of Segregated vs. Aggregated Data? Experimental Evidence
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Naive attributors' attributions and predictions: What is informative and when is an effect an effect?
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Contrast effects in judgments of crime severity and the punishment of criminal violators.
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Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence.
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Unrealistic optimism about future life events.
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A hypothesis-confirming bias in labeling effects.
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Causal versus diagnostic contingencies: On self-deception and on the voter's illusion.
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Social roles and strategies in prediction: Some determinants of the use of base-rate information.
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The attitude polarization phenomenon: Role of response measure, attitude extremity, and behavioral consequences of reported attitude change.
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A note on superadditive probability judgment.
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The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals.
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Stalking the elusive "vividness" effect.
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Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective.
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Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.
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Individual differences in rational thought.
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Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises
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What's next? Judging sequences of binary events.
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Belief polarization is not always irrational.
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Sample size and the revision of subjective probabilities.
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Sensitivity of subjective probability revision.
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Internal consistency of subjective probabilities.
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Conservatism in a simple probability inference task.
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A primacy effect in subjective probability revision.
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Probability magnitudes and conservative revision of subjective probabilities.
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Payoff effects in sequential decision-making.
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Belief in the law of small numbers.
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Measurement Error and the Hot Hand
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Decision Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires *
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Stereotypes*
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Racial Bias in Bail Decisions*
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CLINICAL INFERENCE IN NURSING
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Conservatism in Complex Probabilistic Inference
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Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions
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Partition Priming in Judgment Under Uncertainty
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MARCH MADNESS? UNDERREACTION TO HOT AND COLD HANDS IN NCAA BASKETBALL
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DOES PART-WHOLE BIAS EXIST? AN EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION
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On the Framing of Multiple Prospects
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Subjective sampling distributions and the additivity of estimates
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Overestimation of subjective probabilities
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A MODEL OF NONBELIEF IN THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
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PREDICTING LOTTO NUMBERS: A NATURAL EXPERIMENT ON THE GAMBLER'S FALLACY AND THE HOT-HAND FALLACY
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Asymmetric Learning from Financial Information
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Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles
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The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, 2019
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The “Hot Hand” Myth in Professional Basketball
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Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
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Belief Elicitation in the Laboratory
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MISPERCEPTIONS ABOUT PERCEPTUAL BIAS
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Behavioral Decision Theory
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Individual Decision Behavior
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Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
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Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers
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First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias
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What Comes to Mind
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New Yorkers Commute More Everywhere: Contrast Effects in the Field
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Contrast Effects in Sequential Decisions: Evidence from Speed Dating
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An Experiment in Probability Estimation
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Debiasing Health-Related Judgments and Decision Making: A Systematic Review
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Probability Judgment in Medicine
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Number As a Primary Perceptual Attribute: A Review
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The Base-Rate Fallacy in School Psychology
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inferredcites →https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2550openalex-snapshot
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Risk Aversion or Myopia? Choices in Repeated Gambles and Retirement Investments
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Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics
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Probability Updating When Drawing Signals Without Replacement
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inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4827094openalex-snapshot
Choosing between Causal Interpretations: An Experimental Study
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4864622openalex-snapshot
Information Partitioning, Learning, and Beliefs
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4901736openalex-snapshot
Subjective Income Expectations and Household Debt Choices
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4943520openalex-snapshot
Direct Elicitation of Parametric Belief Distributions: An application to inflation expectations
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4974828openalex-snapshot
Distorted Beliefs and Asset Prices
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5040135openalex-snapshot
Eliciting Beliefs
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5190331openalex-snapshot
Whom do we learn from?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5224282openalex-snapshot
Disentangling Probabilistic and Strategic Errors
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5226275openalex-snapshot
Preferences for Warning Signal Quality: Experimental Evidence
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5226276openalex-snapshot
Preferences for Warning Signal Quality: Experimental Evidence
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5278382openalex-snapshot
Expectations and Information Frictions Within Couples: Evidence from a Sequential Survey of Spouses
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5286198openalex-snapshot
Improving AI-Assisted Decision-Making Through Calibrated Coarsening
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5519683openalex-snapshot
The Effects of Diagnostic Expectations in a Small Open Economy
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6945071openalex-snapshot
The Effects of Diagnostic Expectations in Small Open Economies
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.23925/1983-3156.2023v25i2p127-144openalex-snapshot
La educación del razonamiento probabilístico
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.24090/jimrf.v13i2.11736openalex-snapshot
An Analysis of Scott Siraj al-Haqq Kugle’s Theological Perspective on Homosexuality: Balancing Affection and Ethical Concerns
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/h7pueopenalex-snapshot
Receiving vs. believing (mis)information from friends: experimental evidence from India
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/te4wgopenalex-snapshot
Pulling Starters
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/xvzwbopenalex-snapshot
Confirmatory reinforcement learning changes with age during adolescence
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/znywgopenalex-snapshot
Computation-Limited Bayesian Updating
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.32796/cice.2020.99.7008openalex-snapshot
Economic Models of Optimism: What Does the Evidence Say?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3386/w26963openalex-snapshot
Reversing Reserves
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3386/w29452openalex-snapshot
Which Beliefs? Behavior-Predictive Beliefs are Inconsistent with Information-Based Beliefs: Evidence from COVID-19
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3386/w29512openalex-snapshot
Learning versus Unlearning: An Experiment on Retractions
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3386/w29557openalex-snapshot
Individual and Collective Information Acquisition: An Experimental Study
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3386/w30011openalex-snapshot
The Long-Run Effects of Psychotherapy on Depression, Beliefs, and Economic Outcomes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3386/w33021openalex-snapshot
The ABC’s of Who Benefits from Working with AI: Ability, Beliefs, and Calibration
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2023.1191213openalex-snapshot
Human behavior in free search online shopping scenarios can be predicted from EEG activation using Hjorth parameters
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3390/e23050603openalex-snapshot
Biases and Variability from Costly Bayesian Inference
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.38116/978-65-5635-032-5/capitulo4openalex-snapshot
Conectando pesquisa a gestão municipal : avaliações de impacto influenciam a formulação de política pública?
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3982/qe2094openalex-snapshot
How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.3982/te5315openalex-snapshot
Naive calibration
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-2600-4664-7.ch003openalex-snapshot
Developing AI Prompt Literacy for Cambodian University Students
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3373-5871-0.ch009openalex-snapshot
Ethical Considerations
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1154openalex-snapshot
Information Spillovers Within Couples: Evidence from a Sequential Survey of Spouses
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.70675/7fb86a89zd36fz4d73zae75zb74f435a571fopenalex-snapshot
The Role of Metacognition in Occupational Pursuits : Evidence from Laboratory Experiments
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.70675/a9666486z2f09z4cd8zbeb4z06cf63c7309copenalex-snapshot
Three essays in information and mechanism design
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.70675/cf40e9a2z18adz41abzb2f9z442f6a5f09f2openalex-snapshot
Three essays in the economics of information
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.70675/e54d3635z2678z432fz9019z104b12936c36openalex-snapshot
Économie publique comportementale avec agents hétérogènes
inferred← citeshttps://doi.org/10.7554/elife.104684.3openalex-snapshot
Detecting Regime Shifts: Neurocomputational Substrates for Over- and Underreactions to Change
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